NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
One of the best-kept secrets in 2021 fantasy football drafts is that you can use site ADP to your advantage on your commissioner platform. Invariably, those who do not prepare in your leagues will lean heavily on the site ADP to make their selections. So if you know where the value gaps lie in that site’s ADP, you can take advantage of the market and dominate your drafts.
The way to maximize that is to set your targets ahead of time, which is what we are here to help you with.
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Our Eliot Crist recently took a look at 10 players to target in the first five rounds based on Yahoo ADP, so I figured I’d follow suit and break down players to target on the other most widely-used commissioner platform: ESPN.
Fantasy Football Targets for 2021
Here are 15 players to target in fantasy football for 2021, based on ESPN ADP as of late August.
1. Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers
ESPN ADP – 2.02 (RB10)
It’s always hard to scoop value in the early rounds of drafts, but Jones coming in outside of the first round in ADP is quite valuable if you happen to land at the end of the first round of your draft. While early concerns about Aaron Rodgers’ status pushed his stock down in the offseason, the market has yet to fully rebound after Rodgers showed up for camp. Jones has been one of fantasy’s most productive backs over the last two seasons with a massive 30 total touchdowns and is locked in as the Packers’ lead back.
2. Darren Waller, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
ESPN ADP – 3.05 (TE3)
Sure, Waller missed a good chunk of camp with an ankle injury, but he’s back in practice and comes at a slight discount here with George Kittle ahead of him with a second-round ADP. Waller is coming off one of the best statistical seasons we’ve ever seen from a tight end, and the scary thing is that his arrow is still pointing straight up. If you’re going to go after one of the Big 3 tight ends, Waller offers the best value at this ADP on ESPN.
3. Allen Robinson, WR, Chicago Bears
ESPN ADP – 3.09 (WR13)
While this one isn’t a massive value, even a half-round of early value will start to add up in fantasy football drafts. Robinson has quietly amassed 200 catches over the last two seasons and will get a massive upgrade when Justin Fields takes over for the Bears. He’s a WR1 with upside who will cost you a front-end WR2 price at this ADP.
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4. Amari Cooper, WR, Dallas Cowboys
ESPN ADP – 4.07 (WR16)
Sure, CeeDee Lamb is drawing all of the attention from fantasy drafters, but Cooper offers the much better price. Lamb is currently the No. 11 wide receiver being drafted and is going over a round earlier than Cooper. Yes, Cooper is only just returning from an ankle injury that sidelined him for a good chunk of the offseason, but when we last saw him, he was clearly the No. 1 option in Dallas. Lamb undoubtedly has closed the gap, but Cooper will still be heavily involved in one of the league’s most potent offenses. He’s worth the discount to get a piece of the Cowboys passing game.
5. Tee Higgins, WR Cincinnati Bengals
ESPN ADP – 6.08 (WR27)
Speaking of discounts, Higgins is going three spots later among wideouts than teammate Ja’Marr Chase. That isn’t a dramatic difference, but the value is certainly better with Higgins. At this point, we really don’t know how Joe Burrow will distribute the targets in Cincinnati. But we do know that Higgins came on like gangbusters down the stretch for the Bengals last season. We can also expect Cincinnati to go heavy on 11-personnel, which means Higgins will have ample opportunity to produce.
6. Robby Anderson, WR, Carolina Panthers
ESPN ADP – 7.01 (WR31)
D.J. Moore is the clear top fantasy option among the Panthers’ wide receivers, but there’s more than enough meat on the bone here for Anderson to do his thing as well. Of course, he does come with the question mark of whether or not Sam Darnold can actually get it done for Carolina, but Anderson’s history with Darnold plus his play in Joe Brady’s offense last season gives him WR3-plus potential with a seventh-round price tag.
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7. Jerry Jeudy, WR Denver Broncos
ESPN ADP – 7.03 (WR32)
Don’t give me the drops argument here. Jeudy may have had an issue last season, but drops are one of the least sticky stats year over year. Jeudy also showed last season that he can make explosive plays downfield and already flashed his run-after-catch chops in the preseason. Regardless of who is under center, Jeudy has very real WR2 potential in fantasy this year. Better yet, he’s going three spots behind teammate Courtland Sutton among wide receivers. Adam Pfeifer dove into Jerry Jeudy as well with this piece on his fantasy football value.
8. Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos
ESPN ADP – 7.04 (RB27)
We’re double-dipping in the seventh round with Denver Broncos, as Williams is one of the top breakout candidates among this year’s rookie running backs. Every year we see rookies excel at the position, and often we don’t have to pay a premium price for them on draft day. With a seventh-round ADP, Williams is a prime target if you go ZeroRB or PuntRB2. He may not begin the season as the lead back, but it’s only a matter of time before he leapfrogs Melvin Gordon on the depth chart.
9. Corey Davis, WR, New York Jets
ESPN ADP – 10.09 (WR48)
The Jets will not be one of the top offenses in the league. Stating the obvious there. But Davis appears to be locked in as the clear top receiver in this offense after their first preseason game, and you don’t even have to draft him until the late rounds. That’s a steal for a guy who has very real WR3 potential.
10. Michael Carter, RB, New York Jets
ESPN ADP – 11.03 (RB35)
While the hype surrounding Carter has certainly cooled over the last week, it’s downright stealing him at this ADP. Carter doesn’t profile as a prototype three-down back, but he does figure to be heavily involved in a backfield that features the likes of an aging Tevin Coleman and two career backups in Ty Johnson and La’Mical Perine. Like Williams, Carter may not hit immediately, but the cream rises in the NFL.
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11. Tyler Higbee, TE, Los Angeles Rams
ESPN ADP – 11.10 (TE14)
If you miss out on the top six tight ends, you can wait on ESPN. Higbee is the No. 9 tight end in my fantasy football rankings, but here he’s going behind players like Rob Gronkowski, Jonnu Smith, Mike Gesicki and Robert Tonyan. Sure, it’s always a roll of the dice at tight end when you get outside of the elite guys, but Higbee has shown a high ceiling in the past and figures to benefit heavily from the addition of Matthew Stafford.
12. Trey Sermon, RB, San Francisco 49ers
ESPN ADP – 12.05 (RB40)
Values abound with the rookie running backs on ESPN’s ADP. Sermon is going four rounds behind Raheem Mostert, despite him being extremely likely to open the season in a committee with Mostert. The 49ers traded up to get Sermon on Day 2 of April’s draft, and he’s positioned to immediately step in as the early-down option in one of the league’s most potent run games. To be clear, I’m not anointing him as the next big thing. But he is a back who will have a role right out of the gate who you can get after 39 other backs are off the board.
13. Darnell Mooney, WR, Chicago Bears
ESPN ADP – 13.01 (WR56)
He’s a sexy pick in fantasy football industry drafts, but Mooney is buried in ESPN’s ADP. While he’s clearly behind Allen Robinson in the pecking order, Mooney flashed major upside last year and is inked in as the No. 2 wide receiver in Chicago. Like Robinson, he stands to benefit from Justin Fields when the rookie inevitably takes over. He offers massive return on investment potential at this ADP.
14. Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears
ESPN ADP – 13.04 (QB16)
Is he going to be the starter in Week 1? Hell if I know, but I can tell you that Fields has a game that is tailor made to today’s fantasy football. His dual-threat ability makes him a threat to put up top-10 fantasy numbers immediately. Not only does he offer a high ceiling with his arm, but his ability to run means a high weekly floor. Of course, you do have to have a plan in place for the beginning of the season if you draft Fields. But that’s only a minor concern, as Fields’ upside will make its greatest impact as we get later in the season.
15. Trey Lance, QB, San Francisco 49ers
ESPN ADP – 15.05 (QB21)
We could say essentially the exact same thing for Lance as I just did for Fields, but the market is even less bullish on the 49ers rookie. At this price point, you’re essentially getting Lance for a baloney sandwich. Spending next to nothing on an upside quarterback has one of two benefits: 1) If he hits, your investment skyrockets faster than a cryptocurrency getting pumped by Elon Musk, or 2) If he doesn’t hit, you simply cut him loose and move on. With such minimal draft capital invested, the impact to your team is minor. The moral here is that you can wait on ESPN and target one of these two rookie quarterbacks, though I would not target both of them.
Fantasy football draft strategy content:
- Draft Plan
- Top 100 Half PPR Rankings
- QB Tiers
- RB Tiers
- WR Tiers
- 10 players to draft in the first five rounds
- Keeper Value Chart
Draft Prep for fantasy football articles:
- Fantasy Football Player Profiles
- Coaches and Coordinators Series
- Fantasy Football Multiverse
- ADP Decisions in Fantasy Football
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