Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 11
Brock Purdy’s return to form, Kyler Murray’s return to the field and a more favorable bye week has righted the fantasy ship at quarterback. But that leaves a handful of productive passers and several of their receivers as Week 11 sits. And running back continues its run of chaos with a potential new Steelers starter and injury questions in the NFC North. I will try to help you sort it out in my Start and Sit column for Week 11.
The positional rankings and projected fantasy point totals rely on half-PPR scoring. The listed start/sit calls assume a 12-team league with 2 running back, 3 wide receiver, 1 tight end and 1 flex starting lineup spots. If your league is different, I recommend you start my higher ranked players over my lower ranked players.
You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.
Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 11
5. Dak Prescott, DAL at CAR: 35.3-284-1.91-0.81 and 2.9-13-0.10 = 19.3
6. Justin Herbert, LAC at GB: 36.9-269-1.81-0.59 and 2.7-9-0.21 = 18.9
7. Tua Tagovailoa, MIA vs. LV: 34.5-292-1.93-0.76 and 2.0-3-0.05 = 18.5
8. Lamar Jackson, BLT vs. CIN: 28.7-226-1.18-0.57 and 7.5-39-0.30 = 18.3
9. C.J. Stroud, HST vs. ARZ: 35.4-292-1.52-0.32 and 1.5-5-0.07 = 18.1
10. Kyler Murray, ARZ at HST
35.2-238-1.34-0.77 and 5.2-30-0.24 = 17.8
Kyler Murray ran for the same 33 yards in his 2023 debut as he averaged in 2021 and 2022 before his ankle and ACL injuries. He’s back. And when he enjoys better touchdown luck than he suffered with no passing touchdowns despite a top 12 total of six red zone pass attempts, he’ll return to his traditional QB1 standard.
11. Sam Howell, WAS vs. NYG
39.6-278-1.70-0.91 and 2.4-14-0.05 = 17.7
Sam Howell continues to be a beacon of the difference between real and fantasy football. The sophomore starter has 397 pass attempts this season, 47 more than Josh Allen in second place. And I am projecting Howell for 39.6 pass attempts this week, 1.5 more than my silver medalist Joe Burrow. Come for the volume, stay for the Giants matchup.
12. Brock Purdy, SF vs. TB
28.0-261-1.48-0.56 and 2.6-11-0.17 = 17.3
Brock Purdy has thrown 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions in Weeks 3, 7 and 8 that either Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk missed. And he’s thrown 11 touchdowns and 1 interception the rest of this season with his full complement of skill players. With everyone healthy in Week 11, you can start Purdy with confidence.
13. Justin Fields, CHI at DET
30.1-219-1.57-1.02 and 6.3-32-0.16 = 17.1
Assuming Justin Fields can play in Week 11, I am not projecting any limitations or increased risk of reinjury. He falls just short of my QB1 benchmark because of his 3.96 expected touchdown surplus, fourth highest at his position and indicative of a likely decline in his future touchdown rate. The best quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen consistently out-produce their expected touchdown totals, and maybe Fields will follow their examples. But the third-year quarterback has a history of touchdown shortfalls, and he has thrown what I suspect is an unsustainable rate of 6 of his 11 touchdowns from 20 or more yards from the end zone.
14. Jared Goff, DET vs. CHI
34.8-268-1.71-0.52 and 1.4-1-0.08 = 17.1
Jared Goff misses my fantasy start standard by a few tenths of a projected fantasy point. But I would still happily start him in Week 11. Goff has averaged 6.0 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road in his Lions tenure, the most extreme split among current starters. And he draws a fantasy-friendly home Bears matchup Sunday.
15. Russell Wilson, DEN vs. MIN
29.7-205-1.63-0.51 and 3.4-20-0.08 = 16.2
Russell Wilson is tied for fourth with 18 passing touchdowns and tied for fifth with 51 red zone pass attempts. And I am projecting him for 1.63 passing touchdowns in Week 11, a higher total than seven of the eight quarterbacks I’ve ranked directly ahead of him. The major difference with Wilson and players like Kyler Murray, Justin Fields, and even Brock Purdy is rushing touchdown potential. Already with 40 rushing attempts in just half a season, the veteran should fly by his diminished 43 and 55 attempt totals from the last two seasons. But Wilson has taken just 2 of his 40 rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line. I would bench him with the bulk of the typical QB1 options back from byes this week.
16. Joshua Dobbs, MIN at DEN: 34.5-209-1.24-0.59 and 4.1-24-0.17 = 15.6
17. Baker Mayfield, TB at SF: 33.1-233-1.49-0.63 and 2.6-9-0.04 = 15.2
18. Matthew Stafford, LA vs. SEA: 35.5-265-1.39-0.89 and 1.1-5-0.05 = 15.2
19. Jordan Love, GB vs. LAC: 33.2-222-1.59-1.06 and 2.3-14-0.09 = 15.0
20. Geno Smith, SEA at LA: 33.5-242-1.44-0.74 and 2.2-6-0.04 = 14.8
21. Trevor Lawrence, JAX vs. TEN: 34.1-241-1.19-0.72 and 3.0-15-0.05 = 14.8
22. Will Levis, TEN at JAX: 34.8-229-1.29-0.87 and 2.3-9-0.10 = 14.1
15. De'Von Achane, MIA vs. LV: 8.5-70-0.33 and 2.7-2.1-17-0.11 = 12.4
16. Joe Mixon, CIN at BLT: 13.9-55-0.51 and 3.5-2.8-19-0.10 = 12.4
17. Saquon Barkley, NYG at WAS: 16.4-67-0.39 and 3.4-2.5-14-0.09 = 12.3
18. Raheem Mostert, MIA vs. LV: 11.5-62-0.52 and 2.5-1.9-15-0.09 = 12.2
19. Devin Singletary, HST vs. ARZ: 17.8-75-0.48 and 1.8-1.4-9-0.04 = 12.2
20. James Cook, BUF vs. NYJ: 12.3-63-0.26 and 2.8-2.3-20-0.08 = 11.4
21. Javonte Williams, DEN vs. MIN: 14.2-57-0.26 and 3.8-3.0-18-0.13 = 11.3
22. Jaylen Warren, PIT at CLV: 11.2-56-0.24 and 4.0-3.2-23-0.06 = 11.3
23. David Montgomery, DET vs. CHI: 13.5-61-0.59 and 1.1-0.8-7-0.02 = 10.9
24. Chuba Hubbard, CAR vs. DAL: 14.0-55-0.34 and 3.3-2.7-17-0.06 = 10.9
25. Brian Robinson, WAS vs. NYG: 12.4-50-0.37 and 2.3-1.8-18-0.08 = 10.4
26. Jerome Ford, CLV vs. PIT
12.7-54-0.31 and 2.6-1.9-13-0.07 = 9.9
Kareem Hunt may have six touchdowns in the last five weeks and a preferred red zone role, but Jerome Ford has reasserted his Browns RB1 standard with 64% snap shares and at least 17 carries the last two weeks. I had Ford as an easy fantasy RB2 before the Deshaun Watson injury news. But I would still flex Ford even with fewer likely team rushing attempts with a rookie in Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback.
27. Gus Edwards, BLT vs. CIN
12.5-52-0.54 and 1.0-0.8-7-0.02 = 9.6
With Keaton Mitchell’s recent ascension, Gus Edwards has become an effective touchdown bet. But he may be the best touchdown bet at the position. Edwards leads the position with 7 rushing touchdowns and 7 carries inside the 5-yard line the last four weeks. And he is tied for second with 14 red zone carries.
28. Darrell Henderson, LA vs. SEA
11.5-42-0.33 and 2.7-2.1-17-0.07 = 9.4
Darrell Henderson and Royce Freeman have split the Rams carries a fairly even 40 to 33 the last month with Kyren Williams on injured reserve. You could bet on either as a back-end flex in what should be the final week before Williams returns to the field. But I give Henderson the edge this Sunday thanks to his substantial 7-0 target advantage.
29. Najee Harris, PIT at CLV
11.3-45-0.28 and 2.2-1.7-11-0.06 = 8.4
I don’t know whether Jaylen Warren’s reported promotion to Steelers RB1 means a bell-cow role or closer to a 60/40 rushing split with teammate Najee Harris. I just know that Harris has been hit in the backfield on 34% of his early-down carries this season, the highest rate among regular running backs. I would be shocked if Warren maintained his current 1.1 yards-per-carry edge if his attempts skewed to those more difficult carries. And while I would prefer to look elsewhere especially with his Browns defensive matchup, I can justify a back-end Harris flex start with four more teams on bye this week.
30. Ty Chandler, MIN at DEN
10.7-42-0.29 and 1.9-1.4-10-0.04 = 7.8
Ty Chandler could be the major fantasy beneficiary of a missed Alexander Mattison week with a concussion, especially in a matchup with a Broncos opponent that ranks 32nd in run defense DVOA and has allowed the most fantasy points to running backs this season. But Chandler’s 32 offensive snaps in Week 10 were 20 more than his previous career high. I think he’s a major risk in traditional fantasy. With a week to prepare, the Vikings could choose to split his work with Kene Nwangwu and a recently re-signed Myles Gaskin. I would likely reserve my Chandler fantasy plays for DFS this week.
31. Antonio Gibson, WAS vs. NYG
3.8-15-0.11 and 4.1-3.4-29-0.14 = 7.7
Antonio Gibson has rediscovered some of his previous receiving back value with five catches in each of the last three weeks. But the Commanders may need less of that versatility in what looks like a pushover Giants matchup in Week 11. I would start his hammer teammate Brian Robinson this week and fade Gibson in traditional formats.
32. Tyjae Spears, TEN at JAX
4.7-23-0.11 and 4.3-3.2-22-0.10 = 7.3
Tyjae Spears played a season-high 60% of snaps in Week 10. But he may have owed that to a pass-positive game script and still has just two games with 10 or more touches all season. I’m pessimistic he can clear the fantasy start standard as long as Derrick Henry is in his backfield.
33. AJ Dillon, GB vs. LAC
8.3-32-0.28 and 2.1-1.5-13-0.04 = 7.1
Since his teammate Aaron Jones returned from his hamstring injury in Week 7, AJ Dillon has faded from his season-high 68% snap share to between 40-56% shares. That could have worked for fantasy with a star like Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. But with Jordan Love, Dillon does not have enough touchdown chances to counterbalance his modest carry and especially target volume.
34. Khalil Herbert, CHI at DET
7.5-39-0.17 and 2.1-1.4-10-0.05 = 6.9
Khalil Herbert was the clear Bears RB1 with between 55% and 78% snap shares from Weeks 2 to 5 before his ankle injury. But has that calculus changed with D'Onta Foreman’s three-touchdown outburst in Week 7 and 19% broken tackle rate this season? I’m concerned enough to fade Herbert in fantasy this week. I am projecting both backs for a 27.5% carry share — dropped further by the versatile Justin Fields’ expected return to the lineup — that is tied for a modest 40th at the position this week.
35. Kareem Hunt, CLV vs. PIT
8.6-31-0.36 and 1.4-1.1-8-0.03 = 6.8
Kareem Hunt may have made a flex case with his 14 red zone carries since Week 6, tied for ninth most at his position. But the Browns’ quarterback switch from Deshaun Watson to Day 3 rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson will likely cut the team’s trips to the red zone. I would bench Hunt unless Thompson-Robinson proves himself a starter-worthy quarterback the next few weeks.
36. Latavius Murray, BUF vs. NYJ: 6.3-27-0.29 and 1.5-1.2-8-0.03 = 6.0
37. Royce Freeman, LA vs. SEA: 10.1-39-0.25 and 0.5-0.4-2-0.01 = 5.9
38. Zach Charbonnet, SEA at LA: 5.0-25-0.14 and 2.2-1.7-11-0.05 = 5.6
39. D'Onta Foreman, CHI at DET: 7.5-33-0.21 and 1.0-0.7-5-0.02 = 5.5
40. Kenneth Gainwell, PHI at KC: 5.0-19-0.19 and 2.2-1.7-11-0.05 = 5.4
41. Keaton Mitchell, BLT vs. CIN: 4.7-29-0.14 and 1.4-1.0-7-0.03 = 5.1
42. Miles Sanders, CAR vs. DAL: 5.4-22-0.16 and 2.2-1.5-9-0.03 = 5.0
43. Rico Dowdle, DAL at CAR: 6.6-28-0.21 and 0.7-0.5-4-0.02 = 4.8
44. Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN vs. MIN: 3.9-20-0.10 and 2.0-1.6-9-0.06 = 4.7
45. Samaje Perine, DEN vs. MIN: 1.1-5-0.03 and 3.0-2.5-23-0.08 = 4.6
46. Jerick McKinnon, KC vs. PHI: 1.6-6-0.05 and 2.7-2.1-18-0.16 = 4.6
47. Roschon Johnson, CHI at DET: 3.0-13-0.09 and 2.3-1.9-11-0.05 = 4.3
48. Joshua Kelley, LAC at GB: 5.2-22-0.15 and 1.0-0.7-4-0.02 = 4.0
49. Myles Gaskin, MIN at DEN: 5.7-22-0.16 and 0.7-0.5-4-0.02 = 3.9
50. Chase Edmonds, TB at SF: 3.5-13-0.09 and 1.8-1.4-10-0.04 = 3.8
51. Dalvin Cook, NYJ at BUF: 3.2-13-0.09 and 1.7-1.3-8-0.04 = 3.6
20. Tank Dell, HST vs. ARZ: 7.5-4.5-64-0.38 = 11.4
21. DeVonta Smith, PHI at KC: 7.4-5.1-66-0.34 = 11.2
22. Jordan Addison, MIN at DEN: 7.0-4.8-63-0.40 = 11.2
23. Terry McLaurin, WAS vs. NYG: 8.0-5.2-65-0.30 = 10.8
24. DK Metcalf, SEA at LA: 7.7-4.4-61-0.40 = 10.7
25. Deebo Samuel, SF vs. TB: 5.6-3.6-49-0.22 = 10.6
26. Diontae Johnson, PIT at CLV: 8.5-5.2-60-0.32 = 10.6
27. Tyler Lockett, SEA at LA: 7.0-4.8-55-0.39 = 10.3
28. Tyler Boyd, CIN at BLT: 7.4-5.3-56-0.31 = 10.2
29. Noah Brown, HST vs. ARZ: 5.8-3.9-64-0.25 = 9.9
30. Courtland Sutton, DEN vs. MIN: 6.4-4.4-50-0.42 = 9.8
31. Calvin Ridley, JAX vs. TEN: 7.5-4.3-56-0.30 = 9.7
32. Marquise Brown, ARZ at HST: 8.6-4.6-50-0.35 = 9.5
33. Zay Flowers, BLT vs. CIN: 6.6-4.8-54-0.25 = 9.4
34. Chris Godwin, TB at SF: 7.0-4.6-52-0.27 = 9.2
35. Gabe Davis, BUF vs. NYJ: 5.6-3.3-51-0.37 = 9.0
36. George Pickens, PIT at CLV: 6.3-3.4-55-0.24 = 8.7
37. Jakobi Meyers, LV at MIA: 6.1-4.0-45-0.33 = 8.7
38. Jerry Jeudy, DEN vs. MIN: 5.9-4.0-53-0.23 = 8.7
39. Michael Wilson, ARZ at HST
5.2-3.6-51-0.23 = 8.3
Michael Wilson was quiet in his Week 10 return from a shoulder injury. But the rookie played his typical 89% of snaps and saw a 19% target share that tied him for 32nd at the position. I expect Kyler Murray to make a major fantasy difference for all of his skill players. And I would bet on Wilson in that sense as a Week 1 flex start.
40. K.J. Osborn, MIN at DEN
6.0-3.9-46-0.26 = 8.2
K.J. Osborn sat in Week 10 despite clearing the concussion protocol. But assuming he’s back in Week 11 and Justin Jefferson is not, I am projecting Osborn for his typical 18.0% target share, tied for 43rd highest at his position with Josh Downs.
41. Jahan Dotson, WAS vs. NYG
6.3-3.7-42-0.32 = 8.0
Jahan Dotson did not catch either of his two targets in Week 10. That hurts in fantasy, but don’t let it color your expectations for the sophomore the rest of the season. Similar fantasy asset Cole Kmet responded to a statistical shutout in Week 7 with 10, 8 and 7 targets the last three weeks. Dotson may not follow that example. But I am projecting him for a 17.0% target share in Week 11 that is tied for 47th among wide receivers, and I would flex him in an appealing Giants matchup.
42. Christian Watson, GB vs. LAC
6.1-3.1-45-0.31 = 8.0
The frequent rookie touchdown scorer Christian Watson may not have scored since Week 5 this season. But even in that scoreless stretch, Watson has eight targets thrown into the end zone — the most on the Packers and tied for the most among all wide receivers with CeeDee Lamb — and suffers a 2.78 expected touchdown shortfall that is second highest at the position. I’ll tell you what Jordan Love told Watson this week: Keep your confidence.
43. Curtis Samuel, WAS vs. NYG
5.4-4.0-39-0.25 = 7.9
I was concerned about Curtis Samuel’s toe injury in Week 10. But the veteran came close to his full-season standard with a 51% snap share even if his receiving numbers did not show it. And I think he’s a reasonable back-end flex option against the Giants in Week 11.
44. Rashee Rice, KC vs. PHI
4.5-3.3-40-0.30 = 7.5
Rashee Rice is tied for 13th among all wide receivers with 11 red zone targets this season. But the rookie has belied his steady increase from an 18% snap share in Week 2 to a 68% share in Week 9 with a stalled season-high of just five receptions. Maybe the bye week will make a difference, and Rice is a reasonable touchdown bet either way. But he falls just short of my flex start benchmark in Week 11, and you likely have a better option at the position.
45. Brandin Cooks, DAL at CAR
4.9-3.2-40-0.24 = 7.3
Brandin Cooks got in on the Cowboys beatdown of their division-rival Giants with an incredible nine catches, 173 yards, and a touchdown. But even with that massive boost, the veteran receiver ranks a modest 65th at his position with a 14% target share this season. He may be a decent Dak Prescott passing stack partner in DFS. But I would sit Cooks in traditional fantasy formats.
46. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA at LA
5.5-3.8-39-0.24 = 7.3
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has yet to match his rookie classmates Jordan Addison, Tank Dell and Josh Downs with a breakout fantasy week. But the top Seahawks pick has made a notable jump from 44-59% snap shares the first four weeks to between 62-82% shares since his Week 5 bye. I’m not ready to start Smith-Njigba in traditional fantasy formats. But he may be closer to flex status than you realize.
47. Jayden Reed, GB vs. LAC: 4.5-2.8-38-0.25 = 6.8
48. Romeo Doubs, GB vs. LAC: 5.5-3.1-34-0.32 = 6.8
49. Elijah Moore, CLV vs. PIT: 5.9-3.5-36-0.19 = 6.6
50. Rondale Moore, ARZ at HST: 5.2-3.4-30-0.14 = 6.5
51. Odell Beckham, BLT vs. CIN: 4.6-2.7-34-0.23 = 6.2
52. Trenton Irwin, CIN at BLT: 4.0-2.7-32-0.20 = 5.8
53. Darnell Mooney, CHI at DET: 4.2-2.6-34-0.17 = 5.8
54. Darius Slayton, NYG at WAS: 4.6-2.7-37-0.13 = 5.8
55. Robert Woods, HST vs. ARZ: 5.3-2.9-31-0.19 = 5.7
56. Khalil Shakir, BUF vs. NYJ: 3.6-2.7-34-0.15 = 5.6
7. Dalton Schultz, HST vs. ARZ: 6.8-4.5-50-0.42 = 9.7
8. Evan Engram, JAX vs. TEN: 7.8-6.3-51-0.19 = 9.4
9. George Kittle, SF vs. TB: 5.0-3.7-55-0.31 = 9.2
10. Cole Kmet, CHI at DET: 5.9-4.8-44-0.39 = 9.1
11. David Njoku, CLV vs. PIT
6.5-4.6-46-0.33 = 8.9
David Njoku has never scored more than four touchdowns in his seven-year career. But the veteran tight end has touchdowns in two of the last three weeks and leads his position with 11 red zone targets over the last four weeks, three more than Mark Andrews in second place. If that continues and new quarterback starter Dorian Thompson-Robinson doesn’t sabotage him, then Njoku should secure TE1 status and enjoy his best ever fantasy season.
12. Jake Ferguson, DAL at CAR
5.7-4.1-41-0.40 = 8.5
He may not quite match David Njoku in recent weeks, but Jake Ferguson leads the position with 17 red zone targets over the full season. And Ferguson also has a streaking quarterback in Dak Prescott who hasn’t been shy about throwing passes in the red zone — much to the delight of Tony Pollard fantasy managers. Mind Prescott’s traditionally extreme home/road split in what you might assume is an appealing fantasy spot in Carolina. But start Ferguson in fantasy.
13. Logan Thomas, WAS vs. NYG
5.0-3.8-35-0.27 = 7.1
Logan Thomas likely made a few fans with his heartwarming exchange with star Seahawks receiver DK Metcalf last week. And if you are one of those converts, feel free to add and play Thomas in fantasy. His season totals are slightly diminished by a Week 3 concussion absence, but Thomas is tied for 12th with much bigger tight end stars Evan Engram and Darren Waller with 7.8 fantasy points per game this season. Thomas is one of the major beneficiaries of his quarterback Sam Howell’s prolific pass attempts total.
14. Luke Musgrave, GB vs. LAC
4.1-3.0-32-0.20 = 5.9
He may not have matched his rookie classmates Sam LaPorta and Dalton Kincaid for fantasy productivity. But Luke Musgrave is in their ballpark with a 67.7% versus a 75.9% and a 71.5% route participation rate and with six versus seven and six red zone targets this season. A lesser quarterback may cost him his clear fantasy starter status. But feel free to play Musgrave if you have Kyle Pitts, Hunter Henry or Taysom Hill on bye this week.
15. Tyler Conklin, NYJ at BUF
4.2-3.2-34-0.15 = 5.9
A lack of touchdowns has dissuaded a Cole Kmet comparison. But similar to the fourth-year fantasy TE1, Tyler Conklin has responded to a zero-catch Week 8 with six and seven catches the last two weeks and sits tied for 18th with a 15% target share this season. He’s an option in deeper PPR formats. Just don’t expect a major second-half touchdown regression. Conklin has a modest four red zone targets and just one end zone target this season. He would likely need that miracle Aaron Rodgers return to threaten fantasy TE1 status.
16. Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN at JAX
5.1-3.3-30-0.18 = 5.7
After an explosive freshman season with a position-leading 2.92 yards per route run, Chigoziem Okonkwo has yet to produce even 40 yards in a game this season. It is undoubtedly discouraging for fantasy. But Okonkwo has looked better by his 16% target share that ties him for 15th at his position with fantasy producers Trey McBride and Jake Ferguson. With Will Levis at quarterback, I’m open to a second-half Okonkwo leap and would consider him in Week 11 in deep and tight-end-premium fantasy formats.
17. Cade Otton, TB at SF
4.3-3.1-28-0.23 = 5.7
Cade Otton exploded for two touchdowns in Week 9. But the sophomore tight end misses the top 10 at the position with just six red zone targets and two targets inside the 5-yard line this season and ranks top seven at his position with 1.02 expected touchdown surplus. Otton may need the rest of the season to score another two touchdowns, and I wouldn’t feel like you had to start him in traditional formats.
18. Pat Freiermuth, PIT at CLV: 3.9-2.6-26-0.22 = 5.2
19. Tyler Higbee, LA vs. SEA: 4.4-2.7-28-0.15 = 5.0
20. Michael Mayer, LV at MIA: 3.2-2.1-23-0.18 = 4.5
21. Gerald Everett, LAC at GB: 3.1-2.3-21-0.18 = 4.4
22. Irv Smith, CIN at BLT: 3.3-2.3-18-0.17 = 4.0
23. Daniel Bellinger, NYG at WAS: 2.7-2.1-21-0.12 = 3.9
24. Tommy Tremble, CAR vs. DAL: 2.8-2.0-18-0.18 = 3.9
25. Donald Parham, LAC at GB: 2.6-1.8-17-0.20 = 3.8
26. Hayden Hurst, CAR vs. DAL: 3.1-2.0-19-0.13 = 3.7