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Josh Gross
DVOA Articles
NFL
DVOA
Bills vs. Chiefs and Legendary NFL Playoff Roadblocks
Losing in the playoffs is never fun. But really, it had to be them? If this year’s postseason feels somewhat familiar, there’s a reason for that. There have been 39 instances in NFL history of one team having at least a three-game postseason win streak over an opponent – not necessarily in consecutive years, but […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Conference Championship NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 21 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Divisional Round DVOA: Are Ravens The Hottest Team Ever?
The Kansas City Chiefs had the biggest win of the Divisional Round, despite the final score. But the Baltimore Ravens are by far the hottest team as we are down to four remaining in the conference championships. The Chiefs-Bills game may have come down to a missed field goal with a 27-24 final score, but […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Divisional Quick Reads: Lamar Jackson Runs Away With It
Lamar Jackson had one of the best rushing games in DYAR history against the Houston Texans this weekend. He had 11 carries for 100 yards and two touchdowns against one of the top run defenses in the NFL this year. That’s worth 60 DYAR, the sixth-best rushing game by a quarterback. That’s good because frankly, […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Chiefs at Bills: DVOA Preview
After a season full of panic, doubts, and thinkpieces about these two franchises, here we are again: the Kansas City Chiefs against the Buffalo Bills in the playoffs. This will be the third meeting in the past four postseasons. The previous meeting in the Divisional Round was a classic that saw the Chiefs tie the […]
FTN
NFL
DVOA
Bucs at Lions: DVOA Preview
If Lions fans ever dared to dream that this would be the season their team won its first playoff game in 32 years, then they likely dreamed it in Week 6. The Lions had finished 2022 strong, spoiling their rival Packers’ playoff push and securing their first winning season in half a decade. They had started […]
Scott Spratt
NFL
DVOA
Texans at Ravens: DVOA Preview
The problem is that the Baltimore Ravens are just that good. The Baltimore Ravens finished the 2023 regular season with the No. 5 highest DVOA ever. Their season stood out for the huge victories over other good teams. They beat San Francisco 33-19 and it wasn’t that close. They beat Miami 56-19. They beat Detroit […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Packers at 49ers: DVOA Preview
On Sunday, the Green Bay Packers beat the Dallas Cowboys, becoming the first seventh seed to win a playoff game in NFL history. No, that’s not right. The Packers didn’t beat the Cowboys – they annihilated them. Jordan Love and the Packers put up a passing DVOA of 189.9%, the best in Green Bay franchise […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Can Lamar Jackson Break His Playoff Curse?
Lamar Jackson is a one-time MVP, looking like he’s going to be a two-time MVP in a couple of weeks. He is a regular feature in the Pro Bowl when healthy, and by any measurement or consideration is one of the best quarterbacks in football today. He is at the helm of the fifth-best team […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Divisional NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 20 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Most Aggressive Coaches of 2023
Aggressiveness Index is a stat we introduced at our old site that measures how often NFL head coaches go for it on fourth down. We compare this not to when coaches should go for it based on EPA modeling but rather when coaches actually do go for it based on NFL history. Our current AI […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Wild Card DVOA: Packers Passing Party
Now updated with Monday games! The Green Bay Packers had a huge victory over the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, much larger than the 48-32 final score. DVOA downweights the Dallas scores in the fourth quarter because they came with such a huge gap between the teams. As a result, Green Bay finished the game with […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Wild Card Quick Reads: Love Has Won
Here’s Quick Reads for Wild-Card Weekend, now updated with the two Monday games! Quarterbacks Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks TotalDYAR PassDYAR RushDYAR Opp 1. Jordan Love GB 16/21 272 3 0 0 224 224 0 DAL As noted in today’s DVOA commentary, this was the best passing DVOA game ever for the […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Eagles at Bucs: DVOA Preview
Our DVOA ratings have been down on the Philadelphia Eagles for much of the 2023 season, at least compared to their win-loss record. As the Eagles escaped the early season with some close wins over unimpressive opponents (25-20 over the Patriots, 38-31 over the Commanders, etc.), the DVOA ratings kept the Eagles around ninth or […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Steelers at Bills: DVOA Preview
Edit: This game has been moved to Monday at 4:30pm EST. That means lesser winds around 12mph and just a small chance of snow showers. It will still be very cold but not as cold as Kansas City on Saturday night. Get the shovels ready! Buffalo could be pelted with Lake Effect snow right at […]
Alex Blickle
NFL
DVOA
Wild Card NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 19 of our DVOA-based picks. It’s Wild-Card Weekend! Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Aaron Schatz: My 2023 All-Pro Ballot
This was my fourth year as an official Associated Press voter for both the All-Pro team and the end-of-season awards. Each year, after the All-Pro team is officially announced, I write an article listing who I voted for at each position and giving some reasoning where appropriate. I’m going to do the same thing this […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Packers at Cowboys: DVOA Preview
Everything old is new again. The Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers will meet in the playoffs for the ninth time, which will tie for the most playoff matchups between two teams in the Super Bowl era. The setting feels familiar. Green Bay will bring a hot, young quarterback who replaced the long-time star at […]
FTN
NFL
DVOA
Rams at Lions: DVOA Preview
Lions fans celebrated Christmas a day early when safety Ifeatu Melifonwu intercepted a wobbly Nick Mullens pass to secure the Lions’ first division title since 1993 – back when they played in the now-defunct NFC Central. But a Vikings rematch two weeks later ended their victory tour rather abruptly. Dan Campbell had played his starters […]
Scott Spratt
NFL
DVOA
Dolphins at Chiefs: DVOA Preview
What we thought might be the AFC Conference Championship ended up just being a wild-card matchup. The Dolphins started 5-1 but have since gone 6-5. The Chiefs started 5-1 and …. have since gone 6-5. So we enter this exciting wild-card matchup wondering how exciting it will be. A 21-14 international Chiefs win between these […]
Tyler Loechner
NFL
DVOA
Browns at Texans: DVOA Preview
This is not supposed to be happening right now. At this point last year, the Houston Texans were fighting for the top pick in the draft – a battle they lost. They were forced to settle for second-choice quarterback C.J. Stroud. A new head coach in his first time in the job, an offensive coordinator […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
49ers Stars Lead 2023 DYAR Stats
When it comes to offense in the National Football League, 2023 was the season of the San Francisco 49ers. In our annual countdown of the best and worst players of the year by FTN’s advanced DYAR and DVOA metrics, 49ers players top the lists at every position. That’s fitting since the 49ers had the ninth-best […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
NFL Playoff Picture: Odds to Win Super Bowl LVIII
Odds to Win Super Bowl LVIII Revised as of 1/29/24, through Week 21 Compiled by Mike Harris The NFL playoff picture odds report plays out the season 25,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
The Seventh Annual Joe Thomas Draft
It’s time once again, boys and girls – time for the annual Joe Thomas Draft! My favorite time of the year, by far. We started the Joe Thomas Draft on our old website in memory of Thomas’ long, fruitless career; one of the best to ever play the game toiling away in the Factory of […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Final 2023 DVOA Ratings
The Baltimore Ravens finish the 2023 season on top of the FTN DVOA ratings, followed by the San Francisco 49ers. Both teams dropped a little in Week 18 as they sat many starters, but they still both rank among the top 10 teams ever ranked by DVOA. The Ravens were third before sitting starters and […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 18 Quick Reads: Snowy Breece
Here are your Quick Reads with the best and worst players of Week 18 by DYAR! As is tradition from the old site, there’s no commentary on the Week 18 results, but we’ll have an article later this week running down the best and worst players for the entire year. Quarterbacks Rk Player Team CP/AT […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 18 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 18 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 18 Playoff Picture Breakdown by DVOA
With just one week to go in the 2023 season, 20 teams remain alive for the Super Bowl. That’s not quite historically unprecedented, but it’s close. In the DVOA era, it’s tied for the second-most teams still alive entering the final week of the season. The only year with more was 1982, where the player’s […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 17 DVOA: Ravens No. 3 All-Time
What more is there to say about the Baltimore Ravens? They destroyed the Miami Dolphins yesterday, 56-19, putting up 126% DVOA for the game. Last week, I noted that the Ravens were the first team to ever have three single games in the same season with DVOA over 100%. They are now the first team […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 17 Quick Reads: Lamar Locks Up the MVP?
Happy New Year! Once again there’s no Quick Reads commentary because of this week’s holiday, although there will be DVOA ratings and commentary later today. Here are the best and worst players of Week 17 by DYAR: Quarterbacks Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks TotalDYAR PassDYAR RushDYAR Opp 1. Lamar Jackson BAL 18/21 […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 17 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 17 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
FTN’s All-Rookie Team 2023
I hope everyone enjoyed their pack of games this Christmas weekend. It was a great one if you happened to live in Baltimore or Las Vegas; perhaps a little less so in Kansas City or San Francisco. The NFL has made Christmas Day it’s latest outpost in its attempts to dominate the sports world every […]
Bryan Knowles