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Chris Meaney
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His swinging strike rate is down to 10.1% from last year’s 13.7%, with the former representing a career-low mark for him. His fastball is down 2 ticks in average velo as well, from 96 mph to 94 mph. Despite that, he’s still been able to get outs at critical moments, and the walk rate plummeting from double digits to just 5% in the early going is at least somewhat encouraging.
Still, we know velo matters, and we know Craig Kimbrel: I’ll be monitoring his velo and whiff rates closely, because if this job opens up it’s one of the most desirable save situations in the league.
A minor change here, but Josh Winchowski’s move to the starting rotation means a step up in the pecking order for Justin Slaten, putting him one step closer to the full time gig in Boston if/when Kenley Jansen is hurt or moved during the season.
Usually it’s 3 strikes and you’re out, but Adbert Alzolay got an extra chance … and promptly blew that one, too. His 4 blown saves finally cost him the job, and now it’s anybody’s guess who gets the nod for saves in Wrigleyville. One of the problems Counsell has had to work around is that there isn’t an obvious candidate to replace Alzolay. Let’s run through his options:
Héctor Neris is the logical next man up, but he’s been nearly as shaky as Alzolay. He did get his first save opportunity since Alzolay’s demotion on Wednesday against Houston, and he promptly served up a HR to Jose Altuve before eventually locking down a 4-3 win. Neris’ bread-and-butter throughout the years has been his splitter, but that pitch has declined from being an elite swing and miss pitch (about a 50% whiff/swing for years) to merely OK for an out pitch (35% whiff/swing) while he’s lost 2 mph off his fastball in the last 2 years. He has identical 21.9% K and BB rates, and that’s not the recipe for a long-term closer. Despite him receiving that first save chance post-Alzolay, this is not a stable situation.
I’ve been touting Mark Leiter Jr. as a sleeper candidate since spring training, and he’s been fantastic this season: He still hasn’t allowed an earned run in 12 appearances. The only obstacle to him earning the full-time job is that he seems to be Counsell’s preferred option for dealing with left-handed hitters, likely due to his splitter being such an effective weapon for neutralizing the platoon advantage and the absence of an elite southpaw high leverage arm amongst his teammates. He leads the team’s relief core in lefty batters faced, and Counsell may want to preserve that option down the road.
It’s a little bit off the radar right now, but one name I’m keeping an eye on for this job: Ben Brown. While his future presumably still lies in Chicago’s rotation, Brown could be most useful to the 2024 edition of the Cubs if he was to step into the closer role to shut down games. With Cade Horton on the horizon and Jameson Taillon just returning from injury, their starting depth seems well-stocked. With the back end of the bullpen in flux, Brown has the kind of electric, bat-missing two-pitch stuff that could shore up some holes. Notably, both of his most recent appearances came in relief, as he threw 2 clean innings out of the pen in the second game of a doubleheader Saturday and came in as a single inning reliever against the Astros Tuesday. It’s early, but I’ll be monitoring his usage.
Lastly, Yency Almonte picked up a save in the Cubs first win against Houston, pitching a wraparound inning in what ended up as a comfortable 5-run win. He’s been moving up the reliever chain in Chicago and has arguably some of the best stuff in the pen now that Julian Merryweather is on the 60-day IL. He’s still prone to bouts of wildness and isn’t a pure bat-misser, but given his ascent up the hierarchy, he’s yet another name likely to pick up the odd save or two.
Put it all together and you have what looks like a pure committee, pretty much a worst-case scenario for fantasy managers. For now, Neris is the guy to pick up if he’s available, but he’s at 100% in Main Events, while Leiter is at 93%. Yency Almonte isn’t owned anywhere, so the actionable move here would be stashing him for a week or two in anticipation of him earning a longer look. The combination of uncertainty and few available alternatives downgrades this pen to a C- for saves shares until it clears up in the near future.
There’s no mystery about who the closer is here, with Edwin Díaz looking like the CL1 he was 2 seasons ago, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the emergence of another relief ace in Queens, and somebody who picked up the save when Díaz was unavailable this past week: Reed Garrett.
Garrett has come from seemingly out-of-nowhere to rack up a 25:4 K-to-BB ratio in just 12.2 innings using a 3-pitch splitter, sweeper, slider/cutter mix, with all three pitches sporting whiff/swing rates of 40% or higher. He only just gave up his first run of the season on a solo HR against the Giants Wednesday, and he’s already accumulated 4 wins and the aforementioned save. I would say he appears poised to be the second-most valuable reliever in the Mets pen this year for roto purposes. Even if he isn’t picking up many saves — and he won’t with Díaz around — Garrett still seems like the type of multi-inning reliever who can keep you afloat in Ks while stabilizing ratios and chipping in with the odd win or closing opportunity. He’s rostered in 56% of MEs but only 8% of OCs.
I touched on Pete Fairbanks’ struggles last week, in particular highlighting how his fastball wasn’t as elite as it has been in prior seasons. Turns out that may have been caused by injury: He went on the IL with nerve-related problems after the Rays had imaging done on his neck, shoulder and arm.
Such a mysterious ailment means it’s anybody’s guess as to how long Fairbanks will be out for, and in the time being that means we can expect Jason Adam to pick up the majority of the saves. Adam is also Kevin Cash’s most trusted high leverage reliever, though, and as such gets used in the biggest spots — not just in save situations. That’s exactly what happened Wednesday night, as Adam was summoned to face the top of the Tigers lineup, and he worked the next 2 innings before Garrett Cleavinger finished the ninth and picked up his second save, both coming in his most recent appearances.
Cleavinger is only rostered in 4% of Mains, and — considering he now has 3 wins and 2 saves — seems like a solid bet to be involved in decisive moments late in games in Tampa. His stiffest competition is fellow southpaw Colin Poche, who also has a pair of saves and is owned in just 5% of Mains. At the moment it’s hard to divine which lefty is likelier to get the highest leverage opportunities, but my guess is Cleavinger. His stuff is more likely to miss bats, while Poche is more of a contact manager who sits 91 mph.
I would guess Adam gets the plurality of the save chances here, but Cash has already used him in non-save situations a few times since Fairbanks has been unavailable. This seems like a spread the wealth committee, with Adam, Cleavinger, Poche and Phil Maton (0% rostered in MEs) each getting an unpredictable number of opportunities as availability and matchups dictate. That makes them all interesting, but nobody here is going to rack up enough saves to win you a league.
Last week this situation seemed to be leaning toward Kirby Yates as Bruce Bochy’s guy, but there was just enough uncertainty to make the next week worth paying attention to. After a 3-save, 1-win week with 5 scoreless innings, I think it’s safe to say Yates will be picking up every possible save opportunity in Arlington until further notice.
A quick glance at the saves leaderboard would return Kyle Finnegan as one of the early season leaders in saves, with 7 already in the bank. Interrogating his performance paints a less pleasant picture: a 7.9 K-BB% is well off the league average, and his 11.9% swinging strike rate suggests that may not improve anytime in the near future. The saves are banked but there’s beige flags all over the place here, from the walk rate to the host of ERA estimators that say his current 2.89 ERA is more fiction than fact.
It’s no secret that should Finnegan falter, the next man up will be Hunter Harvey, And that’s for good reason: his swinging strike rate of 17.7% not only paces the Nats, it also ranks fourth among pitchers who have accumulated at least 10 innings this season. His 37.8% K-BB is 6th best.
The switch may not happen soon, but at his current level Finnegan won’t keep putting up clean innings, and Harvey should start seeing more opportunities. He’s only available in a third of OCs, but that should be closer to 0.
