How to Value Dynasty Fantasy Football's Biggest Enigmas

March Madness rolls on, and I’m not talking about basketball. This year, it’s a football term too. In what many are calling the “craziest offseason ever,” big-time players are making big-time moves altering the shape of the NFL. and fantasy landscape. With every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. Understanding the fantasy implications of free agency allows savvy dynasty managers to take advantage of the market. It is an opportune time to evaluate your roster and make moves of your own.

Today, we are taking a look at some players whose dynasty values may not be so clear and if they are worth holding, acquiring or trading away.

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

Rostering Aaron Rodgers the past two seasons has been fun in the moment but quite the headache for dynasty players, as he’s described his future as a “beautiful mystery.” The Rodgers saga finally came to an end when he signed an extension to remain in Green Bay. Of course, not long after, the team traded All-Pro wideout Davante Adams to Las Vegas, marking the end of one of the most prolific QB/WR pairings in the league and carrying massive implications for Rodgers’ short- and long-term value.

As it stands right now, Allen Lazard takes the mantle as the No. 1 receiver in Green Bay, followed by Randall Cobb and Amari Rodgers. The Packers will have to address their depleted wide receiver room through free agency and the draft, but it is unlikely they will come anywhere close to replicating Adams’ production. Adams was responsible for a team-high 30.8% target share in 2021, followed by Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s 14.1%, and he has since signed with the Kansas City Chiefs. After throwing for 4,115 yards and 37 touchdowns last year, Rodgers will be entering next season as the reigning back-to-back MVP. In dynasty, it is always better to get out ahead. The time to sell was yesterday. However, it isn’t too late. The 38-year-old QB is still being valued inside the top-12 and should offer a fair return based on his historical track record and name value.

Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos

After striking out on Aaron Rodgers, the Broncos made a big statement by trading for Russell Wilson. Calling the transition from Drew Lock/Teddy Bridgewater to Wilson an upgrade would be an understatement. Wilson’s arrival in the Mile High State immediately elevates the outlook for all the Broncos pass catchers and even second-year RB Javonte Williams.

Wilson is coming off arguably the worst season of his career after missing significant time with a finger injury, and it was Wilson’s first time outside the top 12 QBs in fantasy PPG in eight years. The Seahawks’ playcalling didn’t do him any favors, finishing dead last in both plays (5.61) and pass attempts (29.1) per game. Wilson has been able to produce in limited opportunities because of his effectiveness in throwing downfield. Since entering the league in 2012, Wilson has led the NFL in completions (298), yards (10,159) and touchdowns (105) on passes thrown 20 or more yards.

New Broncos head coach, Nathaniel Hackett, has made it clear that the team will put Wilson’s views front and center when it comes to constructing his scheme. Wilson should benefit from an offense built around him with one of the league’s best-supporting casts. I would be looking to acquire Wilson, who is currently priced at his floor as a borderline QB1.

Running Back

Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks

Rashaad Penny went to Seattle in the first round of the 2018 draft, but he’s missed 28 of 67 regular season games in his four years since. He was a non-factor for the 2021 season until Week 14, then he closed like a man possessed, tallying 671 rushing yards on 92 carries over the final five weeks — the most in the league in that time by 208 — and scoring 6 times. That included 135-plus yards in four of five games. For the year, Penny averaged 6.3 yards per carry and 4.5 yards after contact per carry, first among running backs with at least 50 carries.

The team re-signed Penny to a one-year deal this offseason. Of course, the best ability is availability, so I would be looking to sell the oft-injured Penny. Injury concerns aside, there is no telling what the Seahawks’ offense will look like without Wilson under center. Although Chris Carson is recovering from a neck injury, his return would likely remove any hope of Penny becoming a potential workhorse, and he doesn’t offer anything as a receiver, with 23 total receptions in his four years.

Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The 2017 NFL Draft was a doozy at running back, with Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt James Conner and Aaron Jones all entering the league. But Leonard Fournette was the first one drafted that year, and he was first off the board in most rookie dynasty drafts as well. After an up-and-down tenure in Jacksonville, Fournette landed in Tampa in 2020, really popping in the playoffs when Playoff Lenny was born. He stayed in Tampa for 2021 and finished as the RB6 in fantasy, totaling 1,266 scrimmage yards and scoring 10 touchdowns. He thrived off high-value touches, ranking top three in red zone opportunities and expected fantasy points receiving among running backs.

The Buccaneers re-signed Fournette again this offseason. I don’t normally advocate trading for running backs on their third contract, but I am willing to make an exception for Fournette. He will enter the 2022 season as the unquestioned lead back in a Tom Brady-led offense, given the departures of Ronald Jones and Giovani Bernard. Given the short shelf life, it is best to look at a two- to three-year window to evaluate running backs in the dynasty. Fournette has top-five RB potential and could be the last piece to push a roster over the top.

Wide Receiver

Allen Robinson, Los Angeles Rams

Allen Robinson was one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy in 2021 thanks to an abysmal campaign. He was drafted as a low-end WR1 or high-end WR2 and finished 86th at the position. It was the worst full season of his career, as the veteran hauled in only 38 passes for 410 yards and one touchdown. This was only a year after Robinson set career highs in both receptions (102) and yards (1,250). It’s hard to put all the blame on Robinson when he had the league’s third-lowest catchable target percentage (59%) from a rotation at quarterback, including Andy Dalton, Justin Fields and Nick Foles. He also dealt with a hamstring injury and battled COVID-19.

Now Robinson heads to the Super Bowl champs. He is set to enter his age-29 season and play comfortably perhaps the best quarterback of his career in Matthew Stafford. Unlike previous years, he will no longer be the alpha, sliding in behind 2021 Offensive Player of the Year Cooper Kupp. With Robert Woods shipped to Tennessee and Odell Beckham still a free agent (and recovering from an ACL tear), Robinson slots in as Stafford’s No. 2 option.

There should be plenty of opportunities, as the Rams ranked first in expected points added via passing (+237 EPA) and had the highest rate of offensive touchdowns come through the air (79.7%). If Robinson’s displeasure with the Bears (he reportedly did not want the franchise tag a year ago) impacted his on-field production, then getting to choose his destination can only help. Robinson should no longer be viewed as a WR1 but can provide WR2 upside at a discounted cost.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kansas City Chiefs

It wasn’t long ago that JuJu Smith-Schuster was viewed as maybe the No. 1 WR in dynasty. The former second-round pick burst onto the scene his rookie year, catching 58 passes for 917 yards and seven touchdowns. The following year, he improved, racking up 111 receptions for 1,426 yards and seven touchdowns. He also led the league in yards after catch (648). It seemed Smith-Schuster had solidified himself as one of the premier young talents in the NFL.

Unfortunately, he has been unable to recapture those heights. He’s had difficulty staying on the field and has totaled 1,512 yards over the last three years after 1,425 in 2018 alone. He was limited to five games last regular season. Those problems meant the Chiefs could get Smith-Schuster on a discounted one-year deal.

The landing spot in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense rejuvenated Smith-Schuster’s dynasty value. He received a further boost when the Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins. The hype and buzz surrounding Smith-Schuster make it an ideal time to sell. Outside of Hill, Mahomes has not had a consistent WR for fantasy, and there’s no certainty Smith-Schuster will be his next one — the Chiefs signed Marquez Valdes-Scantling and are reportedly seeking a trade for a “top wide receiver.” They currently hold the most draft picks in 2022, and it’s hard to envision they won’t address the position early and often.

Tight End

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

Kyle Pitts came into the league with as much fanfare as was reasonably possible, going fourth in last year’s draft, the highest ever for a tight end. It mostly worked — he was the second tight end ever (first since Mike Ditka in 1961) to top 1,000 yards as a rookie. But he struggled to find the end zone, with only one score, and that meant he only finished 11^th among tight ends in PPR points per game.

Still, the underlying usage was there. Pitts lined up all over the field, ranking second among all tight ends in route participation rate (80.6) and second in intended air yards (1,204). The only thing hampering Pitts was that single touchdown, which was 4.1 below expectation.

I’m guessing Pitts meant this in a good way, but after the Falcons failed to land Deshaun Watson and traded Matt Ryan to Indianapolis, it might be getting scary in Atlanta in a different way. Left with a gaping hole at quarterback, the Falcons signed Marcus Mariota, who has familiarity with Falcons head coach Arthur Smith, tight ends coach and later offensive coordinator during Mariota’s time with Tennessee. Mariota was a big-time prospect entering the league, drafted by the Titans with the No. 2 overall pick in 2015. He failed to live up to expectations, eventually benched for Ryan Tannehill. He’s spent the last two years as Derek Carr’s backup in Las Vegas. Having Mariota under center isn’t great for Pitts’ fantasy outlook, making it the perfect time to trade for the second-year tight end. Dynasty is about playing the long game, and although there are question marks surrounding the Falcons’ offense in 2022, I have no doubt that Pitts’ will be a coveted fantasy asset for years to come. He has the potential to become a true difference-maker at the TE position, which doesn’t come around often.