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Chris Meaney
Amari CooperReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Browns vs. Saints
Right now, Amari Cooper’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-106/-129).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 32.5 (-129) after it opened @ 33.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 2nd-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.10 seconds per snap.
- THE BLITZ projects Amari Cooper to earn 6.3 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 76th percentile among wide receivers.
- Amari Cooper has been a much bigger part of his offense’s pass game this year (26.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (20.2%).
- Amari Cooper has compiled far more air yards this season (101.0 per game) than he did last season (85.0 per game).
- The New Orleans Saints defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Browns are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 5th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 26-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- Amari Cooper’s sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.9% to 63.2%.
- The New Orleans Saints safeties grade out as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards
43
Receiving Yards
