NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
Amari CooperReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Commanders vs. Browns
Right now, Amari Cooper’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 3rd-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.41 seconds per snap.
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Amari Cooper to notch 8.0 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile among wide receivers.
- Amari Cooper has compiled far more air yards this season (102.0 per game) than he did last season (85.0 per game).
- Amari Cooper’s 65.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 50.3.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 9th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 53.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
- Amari Cooper’s receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 67.9% to 64.1%.
- The Washington Commanders safeties profile as the best group of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Receiving Yards
69
Receiving Yards
