Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
The most compelling offseason in NFL history got even more compelling Wednesday, as the Kansas City Chiefs are trading Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins in exchange for five draft picks that include a first- and second-round pick in the 2022 NFL draft. That’s a hefty haul for the Chiefs, but they’re now left without one of the foundational pieces of the franchise.
(Follow along with all of the big transaction reactions here!)
On the other hand, Miami now boasts one of the most exciting one-two combinations at wideout with Hill set to line up along with second-year man Jaylen Waddle. While no longer having the luxury of catching passes from Patrick Mahomes, Hill should mesh nicely with Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins’ signal caller isn’t a big-armed bomber, but he can be very accurate and should have no problem feeding Hill the ball in space.
With Hill’s versatility, it’s fair to wonder if new Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel has designs to use him in a Deebo Samuel-like role. Hill will almost certainly see his share of carries, but it’s unlikely he reaches the sort of volume in the run game Samuel saw under McDaniel and Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco last season.
Hill’s explosive ability remains his most desirable fantasy trait. While not being with Mahomes does hurt the cause, Hill remains a rock-solid WR1 option in Miami. Of course, his presence does slow some of the momentum Waddle had heading into this season. That said, Waddle still figures to be very busy and will be in the WR2 conversation. Hill’s presence also has Tagovailoa’s arrow pointing up. Tagovailoa has yet to put it all together in his first two years, but he did prove to be a serviceable option last season. From Week 6 on, he ranked a respectable 16th among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring. With Hill in the mix, Tagovailoa is now locked in the front-end QB2 conversation.
On the other side of this deal, the Chiefs now find themselves without a definitive No. 1 receiver. Yes, they still have Travis Kelce, but there simply isn’t a wide receiver who commands the respect of opposing defenses on this roster. Kansas City did sign JuJu Smith-Schuster in free agency and are reportedly kicking the tires on Marquez Valdes-Scantling, but both of those players are better suited to complementary roles.
The good news is that the Chiefs now have some ammunition in this year’s draft. Following this deal, Kansas City now holds two first-round picks (29 and 30), two second-rounds picks (50 and 62) and two third-round picks (94 and 103). This is an impressive wide receiver class, so it wouldn’t be the least bit surprising if the Chiefs used multiple picks in the first two rounds at the position.
For now, this move certainly hurts the overall outlook for Patrick Mahomes. We shouldn’t overreact here, but without Hill, Mahomes could move down a few spots in 2022 fantasy football quarterback rankings. But before we get ahead of ourselves, we have to see what the Chiefs do in the draft. There are several plug-and-play options in this year’s class, that Mahomes may not end up with as significant of a downgrade as it initially appears.
