NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
All summer long, I’m taking a look at the fantasy landscape heading into 2023 and helping drafters make some of the toughest decisions. If two players are close to one another in ADP, who should you choose? That’s the plan here. This is Fantasy Crossroads.
The Fantasy Crossroads series continues with a look at two AFC running backs who flashed plenty of potential in 2022 but also missed some time due to injury. J.K. Dobbins will be the 1A in a really exciting Baltimore offense, while Dameon Pierce should be the lead running back in an improved Houston attack.
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Baltimore Ravens
The Case for J.K. Dobbins
He’s healthy.
That is all that has held J.K. Dobbins back through his first three seasons (including missing all of 2021 to a torn ACL). When on the field, Dobbins has been one of the most efficient running backs in all of football. Through his first two active seasons, Dobbins is averaging over 5.5 yards per carry, ranking first and third in the NFL in yards per touch during those years (RBs, min. 50 touches). Of course, recovering from a torn ACL and MCL limited Dobbins to just eight games this past season, though he was once again effective when he returned, despite not having all of his explosiveness. In October, Dobbins hurt the same knee, which kept him sidelined until Week 14. But from that point on, he was awesome, averaging 99 rushing yards on 14.2 attempts per game. During that span, only Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler and Jerick McKinnon averaged more fantasy points per touch than Dobbins (0.48), with 44.3% of his rushing yards coming on breakaway runs (15-plus yards). Gus Edwards is still in town, but in the final two games of the season when both running backs were active, Dobbins logged 50% and 49% of the snaps, compared to just 17% and 30% for Edwards. Dobbins isn’t going to suddenly become a running back that plays 70% of the snaps but it is very possible he starts to separate himself from Edwards more in year three.
Efficiency should continue to be there for Dobbins, especially if Lamar Jackson is healthy. The presence of Jackson in Baltimore’s run game keeps defenses honest, which tends to present plenty of yards before contact for the running backs in this offense. Through his first two seasons, Dobbins has ranked first and second in yards before contact per attempt, averaging 3.5 and 3.1. And in the 2021 campaign where he was sidelined, veteran Baltimore running backs Devonta Freeman and Latavius Murray ranked fifth and 16th, respectively, in that department. I also think there is a non-zero chance Dobbins contends for the league lead in rushing touchdowns, because the Ravens don’t really call designed runs for Jackson in the red zone. In fact, over the last three seasons, Jackson has just 11 rushing attempts from inside the five-yard line. Dobbins scored nine touchdowns as a rookie back in 2020.
The Case Against Dobbins
There are two arguments you can make against Dobbins. For starters, while the Ravens are going to throw the football more this season, that doesn’t automatically translate to more receiving work for Dobbins, who has 32 career targets so far. Especially if Dobbins continues to hover around a 50-55% snap share, the Ravens will just play Edwards or Justice Hill (who played 38% of Baltimore’s third downs last season) on those plays. And with the Ravens having Mark Andrews, a (hopefully) healthy Rashod Bateman, Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham, it seems unlikely that Dobbins sees decent volume in the passing game. In 2016-2018, Tampa Bay sported the league’s seventh-highest pass rate on early downs (55.3%) under current Baltimore offensive coordinator Todd Monken. And in 2019, the Browns were 10th in early down pass rate at an identical 55.3% mark. Dobbins does offer the efficiency to make up for lack of receiving work, but it certainly lowers his floor in fantasy.
Secondly, Dobbins has obviously missed a lot of time over the last two seasons, making it unlikely that he finishes inside the top-10 among running backs in rushing attempts, snaps, etc. The Ravens still like Edwards, and Dobbins’ lack of playing time on third down will limit his overall snaps.
Dameon Pierce, RB, Houston Texans
The Case for Dameon Pierce
Dameon Pierce enjoyed a successful rookie campaign in 2022, rushing for 939 yards and four touchdowns on 220 carries. It was a good year for Pierce despite missing the final four games of the season due to an ankle injury. He took over the Texans’ backfield in Week 2 and didn’t look back, averaging 17.4 carries, 75.5 rushing yards, 2.42 receptions, 20.5 opportunities and 13.8 PPR points per contest. Pierce, who didn’t see an every-down role during his time at Florida, was busy during his first season in the NFL, ranking 14th among running backs in snap share (63.8%) and sixth in opportunity share (73.8%). He showed plenty of elusiveness, as Pierce finished the season fourth in missed tackles forced (62), while his 0.28 missed tackles forced per attempt was the second-best mark in all of football. Pierce only found the end zone four times, as Houston’s offense was (shockingly) bad last year. The Texans ranked 31st in points (14.3), 32nd in yards (24.3) and 31st in plays per drive (5.3) and while they won’t suddenly transform into the 2013 Denver Broncos, this offense should be improved with CJ Stroud taking over at quarterback. More sustained drives should give Pierce more touchdown opportunities.
The Case Against Pierce
Like Dobbins, the case against Pierce is usage in the passing game. Pierce couldn’t take third-down snaps from Rex Burkhead and Dare Ogunbowale last season, ultimately playing 18.6% of Houston’s third downs, one of the lowest rates in all of football. The Texans also added Devin Singletary during the offseason, who is one of the worst pass-catching running backs in the league but is extremely underrated when running the football. How much work Singletary sees this season could really tell the story of where Pierce finishes among fantasy running backs.
The Verdict: J.K. Dobbins
Both Pierce and Dobbins are talented running backs with plenty of breakaway ability. However, both also have limitations in the passing game and at least one running back that theoretically could take some work away. However, if choosing between the two, I’ll simply side with the player in the much better offense, which is clearly Dobbins. A healthy Lamar Jackson is going to propel the Ravens into a top-10 offense and while both players might be lucky to reach the 30-reception mark, Dobbins has more touchdown upside.
