Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Get into the groove as I take you on a stadium tour across the fantasy baseball realm! It is my hope that you will find this article both entertaining and informative. Don’t forget about our stellar season-long fantasy baseball coverage at FTN Fantasy. Save a couple bones with my promo code MJGOVIER when you sign up so you can get access to outstanding pieces like Matty Davis’ Weekly Hitter Planner. Also, I’ve started a weekly video compliment to this article. Each week a new episode will be live at 6 p.m. ET every Saturday on the FTN Network YouTube channel. Take advantage of the live chat in real-time to ask questions related to this week’s article or for questions you have for the following week’s action.
It is my ultimate goal for you to absorb and apply winning fantasy baseball wisdom from each edition of Groovin’ with Govier. It’s similar to when Neo was offered the blue or the red pill. If you continue reading this, you take the plunge to find out how far my fantasy baseball analysis can take you. Every Tuesday we roam if we want to in search of the ultimate…a league championship. With that in mind, let’s streak like the first place Cincinnati Reds across the fantasy baseball galaxy.
Shohei Ohtani Tossed 6 Innings & Cranked 6 Dongs Last Week
The Swamps of Sadness
Right now someone is shedding a tear as they watch Artex sink into the swamps of sadness. Even though we all know it works out in the end (spoiler alert), I find the ending to be a total copout. If you’re going to have the guts to kill a horse in a beautiful children’s movie, stick to that principle all the way through. Don’t kowtow by bringing everybody back at the end just to close with a happy ending. Life is unfair! The bad guys win in real life. The Neverending Story missed a golden opportunity to teach kids the truth about the facts of life.
Anyway, this segment is about players who are drowning in the swamps of fantasy baseball sadness right now. Just like Atreyu, we are pulling like hell on our lead line to save our players from fantasy doom. It doesn’t seem to be working. A few weeks back I highlighted a sect of hitters who had gotten off to solid starts this year but started to stink it up at the plate. This time around it’s time to look at some pitchers who are wading in the swamps of sadness:
Charlie Morton, SP, Atlanta Braves
Over the last 30 days Charlie Morton is the MLB leader in walks allowed with 18 over 32 IP. He’s just ahead of Patrick Corbin, Lucas Giolito, Josiah Gray, Lance Lynn, Drew Smyly and Jack Flaherty. Giolito excluded, Morton normally doesn’t belong with that rag tag group of pitchers. Despite the walks being his main problem lately, Morton still has an ERA of 3.71 (4.05 SIERA). Check out Morton’s Statcast page from Sunday’s win over the Rockies:
Morton induced 21 whiffs in this start, with 9 of them coming via his aces curveball. There goes one of my theories about his increased walks being related to hitters laying off his curveball lately. That’s not too shabby! Yes, Morton is 39 years old, but he absolutely still has the stuff.
Action: If any fantasy managers are looking to sell Morton, I would jump at the opportunity.
Lance Lynn, SP, Chicago White Sox
I am still placing Lance Lynn in this segment despite his shocking 16-K performance Sunday against the Mariners. Lynn was placed on bereavement leave after the outing, but he’s not going anywhere. Every fantasy baseball manager who rosters Lynn has to decide what to do with him. The 36-year-old’s 6.51 ERA (3.87 SIERA) says it all! Lynn has given up 18 homers after only allowing 19 all of last year. He has still shown the ability to miss bats even before his start last Sunday. For perspective, I am not a Lance Lynn fan. My opinion of him doesn’t matter though.
Action: Lynn is a pitcher to add. He is likely a free agent in many leagues even after his epic outing Sunday. The best part of his season is yet to come. Go be a part of it for almost nothing.
Luis Severino, SP, New York Yankees
After another injury, fantasy baseball waited patiently for Luis Severino to ramp it up again. The results this year have been bogus. A 6.30 ERA compared to a 4.78 SIERA provides some hope that Severino has had some bad breaks with the best of his season yet to come. Yet he’s also missing less bats while walking more hitters this year than usual. His groundball rate is down (39%) while his HR/FB rate is up (19.5%).
Action: This doesn’t look good, but with players with Severino’s talent he’ll either get hurt again soon or turn it around. I’m betting on him turning it around.
Mitch Keller, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Over the last 30 days, Mitch Keller has a 6.14 ERA. For the year he still rocks a 3.62 ERA (3.43 SIERA). I am not worried at all. Keller has taken a step forward in his career. More whiffs with less walks while not improving his strand rate at all from last year. Keller has provided 92 innings of excellent production this year. I was not one who thought Keller would make this jump at any point, but when a player reveals tangible changes in his profile, my previous analysis becomes obsolete.
Action: I want Keller all day long. If this is the down time in his season, jump now to grab him while he’s less desirable.
Chris Bassitt, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
Sunday was Father’s Day, and I have to assume Chris Bassitt was really in need of a quality Father’s Day card from Hallmark after that outing. Especially after his start previous to that at Baltimore, which was a nightmare. Bassitt has given up 22 ER over his last 32 IP, with 9 dongs too. Despite all that and 15 home runs surrendered overall on the season, Bassitt still has a 4.16 ERA (4.48 SIERA). I use the word still because it seems like his ERA should be even worse than that. His 1.20 WHIP inspires hope since usually a hurler with his stat line likely has a 1.30 WHIP or higher.
Action: Bassitt is 87% rostered on Yahoo, which is surprising to me. I would be looking to add Bassitt, as his next 30 days should be much better than the last.
Two for the Money
For those fantasy managers who can’t get enough of the hype that comes with lusting over high-end backstops, this is their moment. Cleveland’s Bo Naylor and Pittsburgh’s Henry Davis are here. Not only is this a special time of year, this happens to be a rare moment in the history of MLB. Two players both drafted as catchers in the first round coming up at the same time in the season is unique. Yes, Bo Naylor made his blip of a debut last year for Cleveland, but for Naylor and Davis, this is their first real shot at sticking in The Show. First-round catchers are usually the anomaly in the MLB Draft. Yet over the last five years, there have been 12 catchers drafted in the first round. Clearly some teams have a propensity for drafting first-round catchers more than others, with six of the 12 selections competing within the same organization (Joey Bart/Patrick Bailey for the Giants, Shea Langeliers/Tyler Soderstrom for the team that will soon be known as the Las Vegas Athletics, Anthony Seigler/Austin Wells for the Yankees).
The Pirates gave in to the dazzling allure of 2021 top overall pick Henry Davis by promoting him after a quick stint at AAA. It’s important to note that Davis has played RF in the minors and is going to primarily play in the OF for Pittsburgh like he did in his debut Monday night. This will impact his catcher eligibility on a lot of platforms. Keep tabs on that for sure. Prior to tapping Davis, the Guardians finally let go of their stubborn dedication to Mike Zunino, who was an albatross of awfulness offensively. The Guardians then called up Naylor, who made his season debut Sunday (Naylor had a brief cup of coffee debut in 2022). The arrival of these two mighty catching prospects led to plenty of speculation on Twitter about which one would pay dividends more quickly over the rest of 2023.
Naylor is no slouch in comparison to the high-end pedigree of Davis, as Cleveland selected Naylor 29th overall out of high school in the 2018 MLB Draft. Plus everybody is familiar with Bo’s brother Josh Naylor, who is already a solid slugger in his own right for the same Guardian squad. Davis comes from the same Louisville catching tree (do two catchers make a tree?) as Dodger backstop Will Smith. Naylor has a larger sample size than Davis in the minors, but that’s why it’s important to include the time Davis spent crushing the baseball in Kentucky. Both of these catchers have elite batter’s eyes. This year at AAA over 270 PA Naylor had 49 BB to 52 K’s, while Davis had 32 BB to 35 K’s in 187 PA at Double-A. That’s the kind of balance that we long for in today’s game. Very unlikely we see any numbers like that in MLB from either of these freshmen, but both youngsters get a bump from me in OBP leagues. Both of these home plate heroes have shown an ability to handle a pitching staff too. I’m aware that pitch framing and having a consistent rapport with everybody on the pitching staff isn’t the fantasy focus, but there is no area of a catcher’s game that doesn’t matter when it comes to keeping them in the lineup (I know this means less for Davis with his OF duties). Especially two fresh faces like Naylor and Davis, who both carry a stick worth doing the due diligence for.
Nobody can reveal the straight dope on which of these backstops will shine brighter than the other this season. I’m banking on Naylor slightly over Davis for this season simply because Naylor has shown more consistency in larger sample sizes in the minors than Davis has. That may be shortsighted on my part though because Davis already showed out in college. Just remember that these are rookie catchers. Adley Rutschman’s 2022 debut was fun, but is it a baseline for Naylor or Davis? For reference, here are the first legitimate go-around season results as defined by me (meaning their first season beyond just getting a one-month call-up at the end of the year) for some of the best catchers in fantasy baseball today and from MLB past who were top draft picks as catchers:
- 2015 J.T. Realmuto: 467 PA, 10 HR, 8 SB, 15% K Rate, .259/.290/.406, 89 wRC+
- 2012 Salvador Perez: 305 PA, 11 HR, 0 SB, 8.9% K Rate, .301/.328/.471 114 wRC+
- 2019 Will Smith: 196 PA, 15 HR, 2 SB, 26.5% K Rate, .253/.337/.571, 130 wRC+
- 2021 Tyler Stephenson: 402 PA, 10 HR, 0 SB, 18.7% K Rate, .286/.366/.431, 110 wRC+
- 2022 Adley Rutschman: 470 PA, 13 HR, 4 SB, 18.3% K Rate, .254/.362/.445, 133 wRC+
- 2010 Buster Posey: 443 PA, 18 HR, 0 SB, 12.4% K Rate, .305/.357/.505, 134 wRC+
- 2009 Matt Wieters: 385 PA, 9 HR, 0 SB, 22.3% K Rate, .288/.340/.412, 95 wRC+
- 2005 Joe Mauer: 554 PA, 9 HR, 13 SB, 11.6% K Rate, .294/.372/.411, 108 wRC+
- 1998 Jason Varitek: 247 PA, 7 HR, 2 SB, 18.2% K Rate, .253/.309/.407, 81 wRC+
- 1996 Jason Kendall: 471 PA, 3 HR, 5 SB, 6.4% K Rate, .300/.372/.401, 102 wRC+
I’m Not Leaving
Let’s make it clear right now: Shohei Ohtani is not going to be traded. Why does this matter for fantasy baseball? It matters because Ohtani can stay in his well-established routine he has cultivated with the Angels as they push for a possible playoff berth. I know, I know — the Ohtani/Mike Trout playoff fantasy is a tired bit that usually has no relevance by July. I was definitely on this train two weeks ago when asked, so I am not grasping at the handlebars of the bandwagon that is picking up steam now that the Angels are ahead of Houston in the standings at 41-33. For fantasy baseball purposes, Ohtani staying with the Angels for the rest of 2023 is the best outcome to maximize his fantasy output. Ohtani isn’t like other players in many respects, but the one I am thinking of has to do with his environment and routine. Ohtani has a massive impact on a pitching staff (again not for the obvious reasons many fantasy baseball lovers might be thinking of) because of his adherence to the 6-day schedule. Any team that trades for him has to adjust its staff accordingly (not that any team wouldn’t jump at the chance to do so).
In fantasy baseball we place players into roster spots without much consideration for their humanity. Meaning even a legendary player like Ohtani, who is rostered on thousands of fantasy teams, is often boiled down to a few essentials like name, skill set, position(s) and the expected output. Who could blame anybody for this? Most leagues are hosted on a website with nothing more than names and numbers. There are home leagues where a hoard of old pals armed with handles of booze and food-like substances get together in person for the highly anticipated draft, but there is no lasting personal connection to the day-to-day lived experience of most players. Sure, there are podcasts and tweets that provide today’s fantasy baseball managers with more access to the personal side of certain players if those players decide to engage in that manner. In the final analysis, being traded is a professional possibility that all ballplayers are aware of. How each player handles being dealt along with how much a player’s daily routine is interrupted is where the variability comes in. Shohei Ohtani knows that being traded is possible, but we have no way to know how much he really expects it to happen in his own mind or how he handles the upheaval of starting over with a new team. He was able to transition from Japan to the United States fairly well just based on his professional performance alone. I don’t pity world superstar Shohei Ohtani. I am simply making the case that trading Ohtani is not like trading almost any other player in MLB and that Ohtani’s fantasy output will benefit most from staying in Anaheim. As long as the Angels have a small chance in Hades of making the playoffs, he stays put.
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Gavin Williams SP Cleveland Guardians
This is it! I know the hyperbole is ever-present when it comes to prospects, but for me this is the best SP of them all this year, and that includes Eury Perez. Gavin Williams is absolutely worth all the FAAB money in the world. He will make the pain of wasting bucks on Brandon Pfaadt a distant memory. My prospects pal Benjamin Chase and I at Pallazzo have been waiting for Williams to arrive all season. Believe the hype here. Williams can miss bats and dominate hitters. No league is too small for Williams.
Anthony Rendon, 3B, Los Angeles Angels
Get ready to be shocked! Anthony Rendon is back to the IL. Is this even worth reporting? I don’t know. Anyway, Rendon has a left wrist contusion. Rendon has one homer this year. So who cares. Any fantasy manager holding out hope for the return of Rendon who secured a massive bag from the Angels is just farting in the wind now.
Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
He’s baaaack! Joey Votto made a thunderous return Monday night at Great American Bozo Park against the Rockies. Votto cranked a dong off the lefty Austin Gomber. The old man at first will turn 40 in September. He took his sweet time coming back this year. It turns out that worked out in his favor as his teammates have been able to make a real season out of their efforts so far. If healthy, Votto is a viable corner infielder. I picked him up for $16 Sunday night in my Main Event league on NFBC as a Matt Mervis replacement.
Mike Tauchman, OF, Chicago Cubs
Yes, Cody Bellinger is back in the lineup for the north siders, but Mike Tauchman will not be stopped. He has an incredible foundation within him that allows large chunks of time to go by without much of anything good happening to him career-wise. Then … BAM! Opportunity approaches Tauchman and he does not miss out on the chance to flourish. He’s been hitting leadoff for a team that has won six of seven. Even with Bellinger back, it looks like the lefty Tauchman is viable in 14-teamers and deeper at the very least.
Hunter Greene/Graham Ashcraft, SP, Cincinnati Reds
The contusion that sidelined Graham Ashcraft seems to be waning, which means the Reds are about to get another talented player back on their roster. Unfortunately, they’re losing one in Hunter Greene, who hit the IL Monday with right hip pain. Greene actually tossed 6 solid innings Saturday to get the win 10-3 over the Astros in Houston. It appears Greene’s been in pain for a while now, so Ashcraft will take his place later this week by returning to the rotation. Cincinnati thinks it will only be a couple weeks off for Greene. However, with the Reds in the playoff hunt and Greene being a prized asset, they will likely be cautious. It might be wise to prepare for life without Greene until after the All-Star break.
Luis Arraez, 1B/2B, Miami Marlins
For the second time in four days, Luis Arraez went 5-5 Monday. What an effort by the best pure hitter in MLB. He has three 5-hit games this month, which puts him in rarified air. I haven’t mentioned Arraez at all this year in this article. The only reason I haven’t is due to there being no story with him. He’s clearly an elite hitter who is not a fluke. Batting average and OBP are his specialty. There is no power. There are no steals, though his overall offensive profile would seem to imply that there should be. Arraez will not hit .400, but it will be a treat to see how long he can hang on.
Jordan Hicks, RP, St. Louis Cardinals
I’m writing this after someone just tweeted at me about Jordan Hicks being the closer now in St. Louis. I had to check, but somehow Hicks secured his third save in three days! This defies all that we know about existence! Using a closer three days in a row is not typical for any manager/closer relationship let alone the absolute train wreck that is Oli Marmol and Hicks, with his very hittable 102 MPH fastball. Only Marmol could conjure up this kind of bizarro result. Hicks is clearly in the driver’s seat now for the Cardinals, but I refuse to accept it. This will end badly.
Alek Thomas, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
What worked for Jake McCarthy might also work for Alek Thomas? So far so good. Thomas was recalled Monday and immediately impressed, going 2-4 with a homer in a 9-1 rout of Corbin Burnes and the Brewers. Josh Rojas was 86’ed to AAA with Thomas returning. The Dbacks have three starting outfielders who are lefties. Thomas makes four. Thomas started in CF while Pavin Smith got the night off. If anyone loses playing time here, it’s probably Smith. I still think Thomas is the fourth OF for now though as the Dbacks let the four of them play it out. Arizona is a real-deal playoff team and whoever can contribute will play. They have created a very competitive roster environment that is coming up roses.
Samad Taylor, 2B/OF, Kansas City Royals
Samad Taylor was called up over the weekend while starting in three straight games. Taylor can fly! He never played in more than 87 games in any minor league season since 2021, but he has was able to steal 34 bags at AAA this year in just 62 games! Taylor is the ideal player to add for those fantasy managers looking for speed. Taylor showed a little pop at AA in 2021 while also always walking at least a 10% rate. 14-teamers and deeper need to add Taylor now.
Emmet Sheehan, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Another jump from AA lands just fine. Emmet Sheehan had a solid debut Friday against the Giants. He wasn’t dominant, but Sheehan went 6 innings without allowing a run, or even a hit. Sheehan is the real deal, but the Dodgers are overwhelmed with young talent that isn’t quite ready for prime time. Julio Urías should be back by the end of the month, according to manager Dave Roberts. Sheehan should get another start, but the Dodgers are on a short schedule this week with two off days. The Dodgers need starters they can rely on right now as they are slipping in the standings as I predicted in the preseason. I expect Sheehan to hang around for one more start at least.
Triston Casas, 1B, Boston Red Sox
It’s been one hell of a nightmare for Triston Casas this season, but he’s been making more contact recently. Boston also never abandoned him this year despite his major struggles at the plate making contact. Casas is only 23 years-old plus he’s held down a 15.8% BB rate this year providing a .333 OBP despite struggling to hit over .200. That is quite promising to me. Similar to Gunnar Henderson, who also has struggled to hit for average, but has produced a decent OBP. The best is yet to come for Casas. OBP leagues he should be rostered for sure, but roto managers should start snooping around too.
Mike Yastrzemski, OF, San Francisco Giants
A double-dong day Monday paired with 4 homers over the last week means Mike Yastrzemski is having a heater! I appreciate the career of the younger Yaz, but I know how this goes. Yaz has moments like this over a week or two where he looks like an All-Star. It doesn’t last, but it’s fun while it does. So for anybody who could use some power in their OF, this is the guy to add.
Edward Cabrera, SP, Miami Marlins
It’s not uncommon to see a Marlins pitcher with a gnarly changeup. Edward Cabrera is one of those dudes who throws it with gas still. Unfortunately, nobody will be seeing that gassy changeup as Cabrera has been shut down with a right shoulder impingement issue. Marlins manager Skip Schumaker told reporters that he hopes this absence will only miss two starts. That’s good news from the Marlin’s leader, but I will wait and see. The Marlins have played with my emotions with the Trevor Rogers mystery. If Cabrera has a setback soon, I wouldn’t be surprised.
Kenta Maeda, SP, Minnesota Twins
It’s been a very slow grind for Kenta Maeda as he went through many rehab starts while the Twins gave Louie Varland every chance to keep his job in the rotation. Varland ran out of gas after getting ripped for the third straight start Sunday this time at the hands of my bozo Tigers. Twin’s manager Rocco Baldelli expects Maeda to return to the rotation this week. Expect Maeda to slide into the rotation Friday at my bozo Tigers.
Seth Lugo, SP, San Diego Padres
Get ready for another SP to return to the rotation. The Padres welcome back Seth Lugo, who will start against the Giants Tuesday. The Padres are slip-sliding away from the Giants in the standings. They need Lugo to help them find signs of life in the NL West. In 41.2 IP this year, Lugo has struck out 38 batters with a 4.10 ERA (4.05 SIERA). In 14-teamers and deeper, Lugo should be considered.
Kerry Carpenter, OF, Detroit Tigers
Carps! I love this dude’s bat! I have since last year when he showed serious power. Kerry Carpenter’s shoulder injury set him back for a chunk of this season, but now he’s healthy. He has two straight games with a homer and has hit safely in eight of his last 10 games. He crushed a clutch three-run dong Monday night. Fellow Tiger Matt Vierling is having back issues, but that won’t matter for Carps playing time. Add this dude ASAP even in 12-teamers.
Max Scherzer, SP, New York Mets
I finally walked away from Mad Max this year because I didn’t trust his ability to stay healthy anymore. I was wrong about that. And after last week when he was rolled up by the Yankees, he came back with an 8-inning masterpiece on the road against the Astros. Max Scherzer struck out 8 on 15 swinging strikes. I know Houston is in free fall right now without Yordan Alvarez, but this was still a brilliant effort by the old man. Scherzer still has it.
Lars Nootbaar, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
Lars Nootbaar started Monday in his return from the IL. He had a monster game in his final rehab game Sunday with 2 dongs while going 4-5. It’s been a tough couple of months to start 2023 for Nootbaar. Back issues are always red flag warnings for me, but not every back injury is a chronic issue either. If I could be out of business with Lars in dynasty leagues, I think I might. Redraft he definitely should be rostered in 14-teamers and deeper.
