NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/14)
Alex Christenson
It’s time to look ahead to the 2023 NFL season! Follow along with all our fantasy football team offseason roundups here.
It’s been a very busy NFL offseason, with free agent signings, coaching changes and several new players entering the league via the NFL Draft. As we prepare for the 2023 fantasy football season, it’s critical to have a full understanding of each team’s offseason moves. Our NFL team roundup series today covers the Jacksonville Jaguars.
2023 NFL Team Roundup: Jacksonville Jaguars
2022 Results
Record: 9-8, 1st in the AFC South
Season End: Lost 27-20 at the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round
Jacksonville Jaguars Offseason Summary
Draft
1.27: Anton Harrison, T, Oklahoma
2.61: Brenton Strange, TE, Penn St.
3.88: Tank Bigsby, RB, Auburn
4.121: Ventrell Miller, LB, Florida
4.130: Tyler Lacy, DE, Oklahoma St.
5.136: Yasir Abdullah, OLB, Louisville
5.160: Antonio Johnson, S, Texas A&M
6.185: Parker Washington, WR, Penn St.
6.202: Christian Braswell, CB, Rutgers
6.208: Erick Hallett, DB, Pittsburgh
7.226: Cooper Hodges, G, Appalachian St.
7.227: Raymond Vohasek, DT, North Carolina
7.240: Derek Parish, EDGE, Houston
Anton Harrison, T (1.27)
As a 2017 second-rounder, left tackle Cam Robinson is one of the longest-tenured Jaguars. But even as he’s earned a franchise tag and his current three-year contract, the veteran has fallen consistently short of standout pass protection. He has blown a below average 3.4% to 5.2% of his pass blocks in five of his six professional seasons. Harrison lacks the elite athleticism that many of the best left tackles lean on in the run game. But the rookie has great footwork and body control to mask his limitations in pass protection. And if he can learn to deal with the speediest of NFL edge rushers, he will likely inherit Robinson’s starting job in 2024 or 2025.
Brenton Strange, TE (2.61)
Head coach Doug Pederson drafted a second tight end in the second round in Dallas Goedert when he coached the Eagles in 2018, and the Strange pick seems to target that mix-and-match flexibility at the position. Next to Evan Engram and his 4.42-second speed, Strange skews more toward the run-blocking end of the tight end spectrum. But the rookie teased the athleticism to contribute as a receiver with his 6.92- and 4.23-second three-cone and short shuttle drills even if he never had the chance to fully showcase it in a crowded Penn State receiver room.
Tank Bigsby, RB (3.88)
It’s easy to read the name “Tank” and assume Doug Pederson made a similar complementary play at running back as he did at tight end with Evan Engram and rookie Brenton Strange. Incumbent Travis Etienne is elusive and versatile as a receiver but a bit undersized at 5-foot-10 and 210 pounds (30.1 BMI). A tank might help the Jaguars punctuate their red zone drives with touchdowns, something Etienne failed to do in 2022 when he scored 5.24 fewer touchdowns than expected by his attempt locations, the second biggest shortfall at the position. But Bigsby is actually a bit smaller than Etienne (6-foot-0/210/28.5) and earned his Day 2 draft consideration with a jump-cutting proficiency that evokes another Eagles standout, LeSean McCoy. Etienne and Bigsby could pair to be the most difficult running back tandem to catch and tackle in space.
Additions
Free agent signings: K Brandon McManus, RB D’Ernest Johnson, T Josh Wells, G Chandler Brewer, DT Michael Dogbe, DT Henry Mondeaux, WR Jacob Harris
D’Ernest Johnson, RB
The Jaguars made twice as many draft picks this offseason as they did free agent acquisitions. That paints a picture of a team building on a timeline to suit its 23-year-old franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence. But the team may have uncovered a few inexpensive free agent gems, as well. Johnson never had an extended starter look behind Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in Cleveland. But Johnson also has a 27.7% broken tackle rate since 2020 that is the highest among backs with 100 or more carries. He would likely see that rate fall with a starter’s workload. But he is an excellent sleeper play at just $1.2 million, hardly any of which is guaranteed.
Josh Wells, T
Wells landed the $1.3 million free agency deal of a likely backup, and he seems unlikely to start behind former second-round right tackle Walker Little. But Wells is massive at 6-foot-6 and 306 pounds and has parlayed that build into an excellent 1.0% blown run block rate in his career even as his pass blocking has suffered. Wells should be a useful part-time player.
Departures
T Jawaan Taylor, EDGE Arden Key, EDGE Dawuane Smoot, TE Chris Manhertz, CB Shaquill Griffin, WR Marvin Jones, RB Darrell Henderson, DT Corey Peters, TE Dan Arnold, WR Willie Johnson, K Riley Patterson
Taylor was the bright spot of a bottom-four Jaguars offensive line in both pass and run block win rate in 2022, and he translated his team-leading 1.2% blown block rate into an $80 million Chiefs contract. The Jaguars cannot be thrilled to lose their best lineman. But they do have a plan of succession in former second-right pick Walker Little.
Arden Key, EDGE
Key has never produced gaudy sack numbers. In fact, his 4.5 sacks for the Jaguars in 2022 were just two shy of a career high. But Key has been consistently disrupted in his career with 30 or more pass pressures in his three healthy seasons. The Jaguars have incumbent pass-rushing talent, most notably in former No. 1 draft pick Travon Walker. But the team could miss Key — and lament facing him on the rival Titans — more than many expect.
Marvin Jones, WR
Jones was one of a small handful of capable veterans who helped Trevor Lawrence avoid outright catastrophe in his rookie 2021 season with Urban Meyer at the helm. But as the veteran receiver has entered his 30s, he’s slipped from peak standard of more than 4.0 average yards after the catch to 2.7 YAC in 2020 and 2.0 YAC in 2021 and 2022, combined. Assuming they can keep Calvin Ridley on the field, then the Jaguars can afford to let Jones leave.
Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Outlook
The three most interesting Jaguars fantasy options:
Travis Etienne, RB
The Jaguars implied some dissatisfaction with their former first-round running back when they popped up in the Dalvin Cook trade rumors this offseason. But Travis Etienne was as elusive as advertised in his redshirt freshman season, ranking second among regular backs with both a 26.8% broken tackle rate and 10.1 average yards after the catch. Etienne fell short of his touchdown expectations but will likely either enjoy some positive regression or simply cede some red zone work to his new rookie and veteran teammates Tank Bigsby and D’Ernest Johnson this season.
Calvin Ridley, WR
Calvin Ridley was the first of what is starting to look like a wave of gambling-related NFL suspensions and now is long removed from his last Falcons game in October of 2021. But before the off-field issues, Ridley lived up to his first-round draft selection and earned second-team All-Pro honors with a 90-catch, 1,374-yard 2020 season. He may prove to be Trevor Lawrence’s No. 1 option even after Christian Kirk’s breakout first Jaguars season.
Trevor Lawrence, QB
Trevor Lawrence checked all of the Year 2 quarterback leap boxes improving his completion rate from 59.6% to 66.3% and his passing EPA from -0.054 to 0.202 per dropback and cutting his turnover-worthy pass percentage from 6.3% to 4.1%. But Lawrence’s top eight fantasy case may depend on the five touchdowns he scored as a runner in 2022. And he may be hard-pressed to repeat that success after taking a modest six carries within 5 yards of the end zone last season and scoring at an 83% clip on those carries.
2023 Outlook
DraftKings Sportsbook Wins Over/Under: 9.5 (-135)
The plexiglass principle finds that teams that make dramatic jumps or falls in wins and quality from one year to the next often regress back toward their previous year’s standing. The Jaguars would be a prime candidate for such regression after tripling from three wins in 2021 to nine wins in 2022, winning the division, and playing the eventual champion Chiefs close in a divisional round loss. But subjectively, I don’t think it’s fair to judge this Jaguars team by their ineptitudes with Urban Meyer at coach. Doug Pederson has transformed this franchise into a professional contender. And Trevor Lawrence has blossomed into one of the best young quarterbacks in football. The Jaguars draw first-place opponents in the Bills and 49ers. But they still have one of the 10 easiest projected schedules thanks to a soft division with as many as three rookie quarterback starters and a divisional opponent of the weak NFC South. The vig suggests the public is leaning heavily, but I would happily join them on a bet over 9.5 wins this season.
