Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Having six teams on bye during the final week of the fantasy football regular season seems… sub-optimal.
With many fantasy postseason berths on the line, we will be without Jonathan Taylor, Aaron Jones, Alvin Kamara, David Montgomery, Justin Fields, Terry McLaurin, Michael Pittman, Chris Olave, Christian Watson, etc. It is going to be a brutal week, but there are still players that can help you if your lineup is lacking right now.
Let’s break down the Week 14 slate.
Week 14 byes: Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Washington
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Rams
Total: 44.5, LV -6
Pace: LAR: 29.5 sec/snap (28th), LV: 27.52 sec/snap (15th)
What to watch for: Darren Waller is eligible to return for this game but may still remain out. Rams QB John Wolford is dealing with a neck injury — if he can’t play, we could actually see Baker Mayfield start.
Rams
Quarterback
If John Wolford (neck) is good to go for this game, he will start at quarterback. If he can’t suit up, recently acquired Baker Mayfield may be forced to start on a short week. The Raiders are a pretty strong matchup for opposing quarterbacks, but their pass rush has come alive as of late, recording 11 sacks over the last three weeks. That is a recipe for disaster when playing behind Los Angeles’ revolving door of an offensive line.
Running Back
Trying to predict Sean McVay’s backfield has proven to be impossible. For a while it was Darrell Henderson, then it was Henderson and Cam Akers, then Akers asked for a trade, then the Rams kept him on the roster, then it was Kyren Williams and now Akers is suddenly the lead back again. He rushed 17 times for 60 yards and a pair of touchdowns Sunday, playing 72% of the snaps. Williams remained the team’s pass-catching back, playing 8-of-9 third downs and every snap in the two-minute drill. However, Akers played 38-of-43 early down snaps and handled 18-of-21 running back touches, while also getting all the goal-line work. You still don’t love the efficiency or the offense he is in, as Akers is averaging a league-worst 1.4 yards before contact per rush this season, but opportunity is there and with six teams on a bye, Akers is a must-add and a low-end RB2 against a Raiders defense that ranks bottom-five in points, yards and plays per drive allowed this season.
Wide Receiver
Van Jefferson and Ben Skowronek played just about every snap for the Rams last week, but it didn’t lead to much production. The Rams ran a ton of three-wide sets, so we saw some manufactured touches for Tutu Atwell and Brandon Powell, who combined for 13 touches. This is an awesome matchup for opposing wide receivers, especially slot wideouts, but even in a week where six teams are off, it is difficult to make a strong case for the Rams pass-catchers. The matchup is actually best for Powell and Atwell, who played in the slot 61% and 83% of the time last week, though their playing time isn’t close to that of Jefferson or Skowronek.
Tight End
In Week 12, the Rams essentially used Tyler Higbee as an offensive lineman, as he ran a route on just 10 dropbacks, failing to see a target. The usage was better this week, as Higbee caught 2-of-5 targets for 14 yards, logging 84% of the snaps and running a route on 20-of-36 dropbacks (55%). It is still a long way from his early-season usage of playing essentially every snap and running a route on 90% of dropbacks, making Higbee an incredibly risky tight end play, despite the favorable matchup against a Raiders defense that is allowing the sixth-most fantasy points (14.1) and fourth-most receptions (5.3) per game to opposing tight ends.
Raiders
Quarterback
The good times keep going for Derek Carr, who stayed hot last week. Carr threw for 250 yards and two scores, giving him five straight games with multiple touchdown passes. Since Week 9, Carr is averaging 272 passing yards per game, while throwing 11 touchdowns. During that span, he is the QB5 in all of fantasy, averaging 19.2 fantasy points per game. Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller are eligible to come off injured reserve for this game, which would be good for Carr, though it seems unlikely given the short week. Still, Carr is on the QB1/QB2 borderline, especially against a Rams defense that has essentially given up. They have allowed each of the last three quarterbacks they’ve faced to finish as top-12 signal callers.
Running Back
The RB1 in all of fantasy, Josh Jacobs kept it going last week, rushing for 144 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries. He’s now eclipsed 25 touches in each of his last four games and during that span, Jacobs is averaging a gaudy 30.2 touches per game. This Raiders offense is pretty clearly running through Jacobs, who leads the NFL in opportunity share. The Rams have one of the top run defenses in the league but obviously aren’t as daunting of a matchup without Aaron Donald in the middle.
Wide Receiver
Davante Adams torched the Chargers to the tune of eight catches, 177 yards and two touchdowns last week. He saw 12 more targets, giving him double-digit targets in five consecutive games, averaging an insane 13.4 targets per game during that span. He also has three two-touchdown games over his last five, while sporting a 38.9% target share. His 33% target share over the course of the season is the second-highest mark in football, as he and Jacobs are the heartbeat of this entire Raiders offense. Adams will now face a Rams defense that allows the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts on the season, just allowing 8-127-1 to DK Metcalf and 9-128-1 to Tyler Lockett last week. The Rams have allowed four receivers to reach the century mark since Week 10.
This also puts Mack Hollins in consideration as a WR3/flex play in PPR leagues. He saw nine targets last week and has now seen nine targets in two of his last three games, operating as the clear No. 2 pass-catcher for the Raiders.
Tight End
Again, Waller is eligible to return this week, but it sounds like Week 15 is more realistic. Foster Moreau has played an every-down role for the Raiders since Week 7 but has been a pretty underwhelming fantasy option. Of course, routes and snaps are all that you are looking for when streaming the tight end position, but Moreau will remain a high-end TE2 at best against the Rams.
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Total: 53.5, DET -1
Pace: DET: 27.42 sec/snap (14th), MIN: 26.91 sec/snap (9th)
What to watch for: D’Andre Swift’s uptick in playing time.
Lions
Quarterback
They say home is where the heart is. And in Detroit, home is where the fantasy points are, especially for Jared Goff. The veteran signal caller is coming off a strong game at home, completing 31-of-41 passes for 340 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Detroit scored on every offensive possession in this game, as Goff continued his stellar play in Ford Field. In seven home games this season, Goff is averaging 23.1 completions, 269.5 passing yards, 2.4 passing touchdowns and 20 fantasy points per game. He’s thrown 17 touchdowns to just three interceptions when at home and now the Lions host a vulnerable Minnesota pass defense in a game with the highest total of the week. The Vikings are coughing up a league-worst 8.0 yards per completion this season, as well as the fourth-most yards per completion (11.3). Leading a thriving Lions offense that is averaging the fifth-most points per drive in the entire NFL (2.43), Goff is an easy top-12 quarterback play for me this week and would be even if zero teams were on bye.
Running Back
Finally. After weeks of maddening usage and limitations, D’Andre Swift returned to about as close as possible to his early-season role last week. He logged a team-high 51% of the offensive snaps, his most in a game since Week 8, recording 18 touches for over 100 yards and a touchdown. In Week 12, we saw Swift see most of the work on third downs and in the two-minute drill but in Week 13, Swift cut into the early-down work, playing 27 snaps on early downs compared to 15 for Jamaal Williams. He also saw a carry from inside the 5-yard line, just his fourth on the year, which he converted into a touchdown. Now he gets a strong matchup against a Vikings defense that is surrendering the fifth-most receptions (6.0), fifth-most targets (7.3) and fourth-most receiving yards per game (45.3) to opposing running backs this season. Given the uptick in playing time and usage, Swift can once again safely be deployed as a strong RB2 going forward.
Jamaal Williams, meanwhile, scored a touchdown last game because, well, it was Sunday. He now has 14 scores on the year, as he continues to benefit from the Lions being tackled at the one-yard line more than any other team in football. Williams comfortably leads the league with 24 carries from inside the 5-yard line this season and while Swift did see a carry from inside the 5-yard line last week, it came in a no-huddle situation, so I still believe this role isn’t going away for Williams. However, his carries dropped to 11 and his snap share fell to 30%, his lowest of the entire season. He hasn’t caught a pass in five weeks and remains a touchdown-or-bust flex play, though he’s even more risky than he had been in recent weeks.
Wide Receiver
Amon-Ra St. Brown continued his dominance last week, hauling in 11 passes for 114 yards and a pair of touchdowns. After once again being tackled at the one-yard line to start the game, it looked like it would be another somewhat tilting game from St. Brown in the touchdown department, however, he scored on a pair of end zone targets later on. He’s now been tackled five times inside the 5-yard line this season and twice at the 1-yard line, but St. Brown is now up to six touchdowns on the year. Over the last four weeks, he has three 100-yard games and three touchdowns, seeing double-digit targets in three games. He’s always an elite fantasy wide receiver, especially against Minnesota and slot defensive back Chandon Sullivan, who is allowing the most receiving yards (566), most receptions (47) and most yards after the catch (381) in slot coverage this season.
I also like D.J. Chark as an upside WR3, especially in a week where six teams are on bye. Chark is coming off a strong game, catching five passes for 98 yards. Jameson Williams made his season debut last week but played just eight offensive snaps and ran two routes, so Chark is still the clear WR2 in this offense. If Goff’s home success continues this week, Chark could have a second consecutive good game, especially against a Vikings defense that is allowing the fifth-most air yards in the league (1,861). They have also allowed the third-most receiving yards off deep passes this season (766), making this a pretty advantageous spot for Chark, who ran a route on 41-of-43 dropbacks last week.
Tight End
The Lions continue to use Brock Wright, James Mitchell and Shane Zylstra in a three-way committee at tight end. Wright and Zylstra ran 11 pass routes last week, while Mitchell ran 12. Look elsewhere at tight end for fantasy football purposes.
Vikings
Quarterback
In a tough spot against the Jets defense last week, Kirk Cousins didn’t do much, completing 21-of-35 passes for 173 yards and one touchdown. He’s now scored one or fewer touchdowns in three of his last four games, while Cousins is averaging just 0.41 fantasy points per dropback, which ranks 22nd among quarterbacks. Cousins has finished as a top-12 quarterback just four times this season, while finishing outside the top-20 three times. A matchup with the Lions should be a get-right spot, though don’t overlook the Lions sudden improvements on defense. Over the last three weeks, the Lions are allowing 6.1 yards per attempt (10th) and the fourth-lowest completion percentage (58.3%) in football, though Cousins should be able to post back-end QB1 numbers in this high-scoring game. Detroit is still surrendering a league-leading 2.50 points per drive on the season, as well as the most yards per drive (39.2).
Running Back
Dalvin Cook continued to see plenty of volume last week, carrying the ball 20 times for 86 yards and a touchdown, while adding two receptions. He’s now touched the ball 22 and 26 times over the last two weeks, while playing 75% and 86% of the offensive snaps. Alexander Mattison vulture a touchdown but still is playing around 25% of the snaps, as Cook continues to dominate this Minnesota backfield. The Lions have been a lot better against opposing running backs as of late, but you are obviously starting Cook in every format.
Wide Receiver
Justin Jefferson is coming off a tough matchup against a top-tier Jets secondary but still had 45 yards and a touchdown. Now he faces a Lions defense that held him to just three catches for 14 yards back in Week 3, as he was shadowed by defensive back Jeff Okudah on 78% of his routes throughout the game. The Lions then used bracket coverage on top of that, as Jefferson saw double coverage on over 80% of his snaps during the game. And according to FTN Data, Jefferson saw double coverage on 3-of-6 targets in this first matchup. It worked, so it is entirely possible that the Lions use the same approach this time around. Of course, Jefferson is still in every single starting lineup on the planet, but it’ll be interesting to see if it once again leads to more opportunities for Adam Thielen and/or K.J. Osborn.
In the first meeting between these division rivals, Thielen had one of his best games of the season, catching six passes for 61 yards and a touchdown on eight targets. A potential uptick in targets would be great for Thielen, who is sporting just a 17.6% target share since the Vikings acquired T.J. Hockenson. Thielen’s target share from inside the 10-yard line has also dropped from 25% last season to just 15.4% this season, while he’s yet to reach 75 receiving yards in a game. The veteran remains a low-ceiling WR3 but again, if the Lions force Thielen and Osborn to beat them and try to limit Jefferson’s production in this game, it could lead to a second strong game against Detroit.
Tight End
T.J. Hockenson had a quiet game in Week 13, catching just four passes for 33 yards. However, you still love the usage, as Hockenson has seen at least six targets in every game since joining the Vikings. And during that span, he is tied with Travis Kelce for the most receptions among all tight ends (30), while ranking second in targets (38), fourth in receiving yards and third in fantasy points. Now he gets a revenge game against his former team, who also happen to allow the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (14.4). Meanwhile, only the Cardinals have allowed more receiving touchdowns to the position than the Lions (8).
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
Total: 47, CIN -6
Pace: CIN: 27.76 sec/snap (18th), CLE: 28.09 sec/snap (21st)
What to watch for: Joe Mixon continues to work his way back from a concussion. David Njoku is expected to return to the lineup for Cleveland.
Bengals
Quarterback
Joe Burrow was stellar against the Chiefs last week, completing 25-of-31 passes for 286 yards and two touchdowns, while adding 46 rushing yards and an additional score. Burrow is now the QB4 on the season, as we know he can post huge numbers in the passing game in this offense, but the Bengals have been utilizing his mobility as of late. In fact, since Week 9, Burrow ranks fifth among all signal callers in designed rushing attempts with 19, averaging nearly five per game. He has rushed for 78 yards over the last two weeks, which has added to his already high ceiling in fantasy. Burrow should once again post top-seven numbers against a vulnerable Cleveland defense that is allowing opposing offenses to score points on 41.6% of drives this season, the fifth-highest rate in the league.
Running Back
With Joe Mixon still in concussion protocol, Samaje Perine drew a second consecutive start Sunday. He once again posted strong numbers, while operating as the clear lead running back. Perine rushed for 106 yards on 21 carries, adding six receptions for 49 yards. He logged 80% of the snaps for the second straight week, while also seeing seven targets for the second straight week. If Mixon can’t get back onto the field this week, Perine would remain a must-start, top-12 running back, especially against an awful Cleveland run defense that allows the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, while they are one of only three teams allowing at least one rushing touchdown per game to the running back position.
Of course, if Mixon can play, start him as a low-end RB1 again, though I do wonder if he is limited at all. We have seen multiple teams limit players a bit in their first games coming off a concussion, and Perine has filled in admirably over the last two weeks.
Wide Receiver
Ja’Marr Chase returned to action last week and caught seven passes for 97 yards on eight targets. He looked great in his first game back and faces a Cleveland defense that has allowed an opposing top wide receiver to find the end zone against them in each of the past six games, including Nico Collins this past weekend. Chase played 82% of routes and ran a route on 34-of-37 dropbacks in his first game back and is an obvious top-five wide receiver this week. You are starting Tee Higgins as a top-15 wide receiver, too. Higgins found the end zone last week, though you’d definitely like to see more than the five targets that went his way.
Tight End
Hayden Hurst (calf) is listed as doubtful for this game, which means the passing game will be even more concentrated this week.
Browns
Quarterback
Deshaun Watson made his season debut last week. After having not played for nearly two years, some rust was to be expected. It was clearly the case, as Watson looked awful against the Texans, completing 12-of-22 passes for 131 yards, zero touchdowns and an interception. Multiple passes from Watson landed in the dirt, as over 20% of his pass attempts were deemed off-target. I had some trepidation regarding immediately viewing Watson as a top-10 fantasy quarterback in his first game back last week and I don’t feel great about starting him as a QB1 this week either. The Bengals have yet to allow a quarterback to reach the 300-yard mark this season, while surrendering the second-lowest passing touchdown rate in the league (2.8%). Watson is a mid-range QB2 for me in this AFC North showdown.
Running Back
Shockingly, Nick Chubb did not dominate the lowly Texans run defense last week, rushing for 80 scoreless yards on 17 carries. For what it is worth, the Browns offense lost multiple possessions due to two defensive touchdowns, as well as a special teams score. Still, you expected a lot more from Chubb in that dream matchup. Of course, you are still starting Chubb as a top-seven running back and while the Bengals run defense is solid, they did just allow both Kansas City running backs to find the end zone against them. And when these teams last met back in Week 8, Chubb rushed for 101 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
Wide Receiver
With Watson struggling and only attempting 22 passes, there wasn’t much room for success for Amari Cooper on Sunday, who caught four passes for 40 yards, though he was targeted a team-high nine times. That’s an impressive 42% target share for the veteran wideout, who now ranks eighth in the league in target share on the season (26.7%). As for the matchup, the Bengals have been a lot more prone to giving up production to opposing wide receivers since losing top defensive back Chidobe Awuzie a few weeks ago. They surrendered 6-83-1 to George Pickens in Week 11, 4-70 to Treylon Burks in Week 12 and 71 yards to Marquez Valdes-Scantling this past weekend. Cooper is far more talented and far more involved in his offense than any of those three wide receivers.
Donovan Peoples-Jones has suddenly failed to reach 50 receiving yards in two straight games, though he saved his day with an electric punt return for a touchdown. He did connect with Watson on a 27-yard catch, giving him a reception of at least 25 yards in six of his last seven games. He’ll remain the clear second option in this passing game and should see more than three targets this week. Peoples-Jones will draw coverage from Eli Apple in this game, who is allowing 0.27 fantasy points per coverage route this season, along with 14.0 yards per reception and an aDOT of 13.9 yards (14th worst). DPJ remains a viable WR3 play this weekend.
Tight End
David Njoku missed last week’s game, but it sounds like he’ll return this weekend. Hopefully there are no limitations, as Njoku returned from an injury back in Week 11, only to play 37% of the snaps and run a route on 19-of-46 dropbacks (41.3%). That was a two-game absence, and this will be one game, for what it is worth. If Njoku has no limitations, he’ll rank as an easy top-10 fantasy tight end. Back in Week 12, he logged 81% of the snaps and ran a route on 33-of-43 dropbacks (77%). And while it didn’t exactly come to fruition last week, we do have a sample size of Watson heavily targeting the tight end position in the red zone, as tight ends accounted for nearly 24% of the passing touchdowns during Watson’s final two seasons with the Texans.
If Njoku doesn’t play, feel free to avoid Harrison Bryant. The Browns played Pharaoh Brown over him last week.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Total: 37, PIT -2.5
Pace: PIT: 27.67 sec/snap (17th), BAL: 29.71 sec/snap (31st)
What to watch for: Lamar Jackson is likely to miss this game.
Steelers
Quarterback
Kenny Pickett failed to reach 200 passing yards for the fourth time of the year last week and is now averaging just 0.35 fantasy points per dropback on the year, the second-worst rate among qualified quarterbacks behind only Joe Flacco. He hasn’t reached 20 fantasy points in a game this season and his best fantasy finish is QB12. You should not be starting him against the Ravens outside of as a bye week replacement in superflex formats.
Running Back
While it initially seemed as if Najee Harris would not play last week, he suited up. However, he didn’t have the elite role we saw back in Week 11 when Jaylen Warren was sidelined. In that game, Harris logged 92% of the snaps, played every snap in the two-minute drill and every snap on third downs once Warren left the game. And he was on his way to having another massive role in Week 12 before leaving with an abdomen injury. This past weekend, however, Harris and Warren were both active, which resulted in a 66% snap share. Warren returned to his role as the passing downs back, playing 7-of-9 third downs. In the three full games Warren has played in since Week 8, Warren has played 23-of-34 third downs (68%), playing every single snap in the two-minute drill. This limits Harris’ upside, especially after seeing just one target last week, though the Steelers appeared to have improved their running game, as Harris has averaged at least 4.5 yards per carry in three of his last four games. He does draw a brutal Week 13 matchup against the Ravens, who are stuffing 20% of runs at or behind the line of scrimmage this year, tied for the fifth-highest rate in football. Just 24.9% of the yardage against the Ravens this year have come on the ground, the second-lowest rate in the league. Warren’s presence, on top of a tough matchup, pushes Harris back into the low-end RB2 range for me.
Wide Receiver
It was yet another inefficient game from Diontae Johnson last week, who caught just 5-of-11 targets for 60 yards Sunday. He had multiple drops in this game, including one in the end zone that would have given him his first touchdown of the season. Johnson has only eclipsed 60 receiving yards once all year long, while his metrics remain very poor. Johnson is sporting the eighth-lowest yards per target (5.4), sixth-lowest yards per reception (9.10) and ranks 74th among qualified wide receivers in fantasy points per snap (0.16). It was good to see Johnson get back to seeing double-digit targets last week, but it hasn’t been as frequent as in years past, as he’s seen 10 or more targets in three games since Week 5. Johnson remains a low-ceiling WR3 against the Ravens.
George Pickens caught just one pass for two yards Sunday and was upset about his lack of usage. We now have a squeaky wheel narrative for Week 13, though Pickens is clearly a volatile WR3 in this underwhelming Steelers passing game. There is an opportunity to connect on explosive passing plays against the Ravens, who are allowing a 59.38% completion percentage on passes 20 yards or more down the field this season, the highest rate in football. That could bode well for Pickens, who is averaging 11.8 yards before the catch per reception this season, the seventh-highest mark in the league.
Tight End
Pat Freiermuth led the Steelers in receiving last week, catching three passes for 76 yards. Most of his damage came off an impressive 57-yard catch-and-run, and while Freiermuth’s route participation actually came down last week, he’s still being targeted on a fair share of his routes. Freiermuth has now recorded at least 75 yards in three of his last six games, while his 23.9% target share over the last four weeks ranks third among all tight ends in football. Continue starting Freiermuth as a top-seven fantasy tight end.
Ravens
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson is unlikely to play Sunday and could miss more than one game. Enter Tyler Huntley, who stepped in for Jackson last week, completing 27-of-32 passes for 187 yards and an interception, while rushing 10 times for 41 yards and a touchdown. We saw Huntley start five games last season and the rushing floor was strong, as he rushed for at least 40 yards in every game. And in six games where he’s played the majority of the game since last year, Huntley is averaging a solid 54.1 rushing yards per game. In his five starts last year, Huntley showed a ceiling, finishing as the QB1 in all of fantasy in a game against Green Bay, throwing for 215 yards and two touchdowns, while rushing for 73 yards and two more scores. I really wish the Ravens had more at wide receiver, but Huntley should be able to present a floor due to his rushing. The Steelers aren’t as friendly of a matchup with T.J. Watt back, but they are still surrendering the fifth-most yards per pass attempt (7.6) and a league-worst 11.9 yards per completion. Huntley is a very viable QB2 this week with plenty of streaming appeal.
Running Back
The Ravens used three running backs last week. Gus Edwards, one week after operating as the lead running back, played just 24% of the snaps this past Sunday, while Kenyan Drake logged 47% of the snaps. Drake out-touched Edwards 9-6, and now that there is more uncertainty with this backfield, I don’t feel great about starting anyone, especially against the Steelers, who are allowing the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game this season (107.5). Just 29.6% of the yardage against the Steelers have been via the run, the fifth-lowest rate in the NFL, while just 19.3% of the touchdowns scored against Pittsburgh have come on the ground, the second-lowest rate in the league. With six teams on bye, Edwards and Drake are nothing more than desperation flex plays.
Wide Receiver
I still don’t want to start any wide receivers from the Ravens if I can help it. However, this is such a good matchup, as the Steelers have allowed 13 different wide receivers to either reach at least 95 receiving yards or score a touchdown against them this season. Demarcus Robinson caught seven passes for 41 yards on a healthy eight targets last week and against a Steelers secondary that is coughing up the most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts, the veteran is worth a look in deeper leagues.
Tight End
Mark Andrews has a solid sample size of playing time alongside Huntley, and the results aren’t just solid — they’re great. In six games alongside Huntley since last season, Andrews is averaging 10.5 targets, 7.83 receptions, 91.8 receiving yards and just over 20 fantasy points per game. Andrews has been very disappointing as of late, failing to find the end zone since Week 6. His target share is still elite, especially at the tight end position, and you are obviously starting him without hesitation. We’ll see if he and Huntley can build off their tremendous rapport from a season ago.
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
Total: 44, BUF -9
Pace: BUF: 27.03 sec/snap (11th), NYJ: 26.96 sec/snap (10th)
What to watch for: Michael Carter continues to deal with an ankle injury. And, to no one’s surprise, Mike White will once again start at QB.
Bills
Quarterback
Josh Allen is coming off his second-worst fantasy performance of the season, as the Bills really didn’t need him to be Superman against the Patriots. He still scored two touchdowns and had an unfortunate sequence where he had a 41-yard touchdown pass called back, followed by a sack fumble. Allen is still the QB1 on the season, finishing as a top-five fantasy quarterback in nine weeks this year. This week’s matchup against the Jets isn’t the friendliest, as they limited him to just 18-of-34 passes for 205 yards and two interceptions, though Allen made up for it by rushing for 86 yards and a pair of touchdowns. His touchdown equity in this Buffalo offense is as high as any player in football, which keeps him inside the top-five fantasy quarterbacks every single week, regardless of the matchup.
Running Back
Are we starting to see a shift in the Buffalo backfield? It is entirely possible. James Cook is coming off a career-high 20 touches against the Patriots Thursday night, rushing for 64 yards on 14 carries, while adding six receptions for 41 yards. Cook has looked explosive in Weeks 13 and 11, the two games where he saw meaningful work and was rewarded with a season-high 43% snap share. Devin Singletary, meanwhile, played a season-low 44% of the snaps Thursday, rushing 13 times for 51 yards and a score. If you have followed my work, you know that no one is higher on Singletary than me, and I still believe he is the 1A in this offense. However, prior to last week, he was the unquestioned lead running back, which may not be the case anymore. Buffalo selected Cook in the second round in this year’s draft and it seemed like only a matter of time before the rookie would see more work. He is more explosive in the passing game than Singletary, as Cook is averaging 2.16 yards per route run, the second-highest mark among qualified running backs this season. Cook and Nyheim Hines split third-down snaps last week, while we also saw multiple packages with both running backs on the field.
With six teams on bye, Cook has entered the flex discussion if you are hurting at running back this week, though you are hoping he remains involved in the passing game. For what it is worth, however, the Bills have been targeting the running back position a lot more this season. In 2021, Buffalo targeted running backs 14.6% of the time, the fifth-lowest rate in football but through 13 weeks in 2022, that number has climbed to nearly 21%. I do believe that Singletary will still see slightly more carries, as well as the short-yardage work. He’s quietly third among all running backs in red zone carries since Week 3 (22), but if the usage is falling, Singletary is going to need a touchdown here. The Jets did just allow both Minnesota running backs to find the end zone last week, so there is a chance here, but both Buffalo running backs project as flex plays this week.
Wide Receiver
The top wide receiver in all of fantasy, Stefon Diggs kept rolling last week, catching seven passes for 92 yards and a touchdown. He now has tied his career-high with 10 receiving touchdowns, as Diggs leads the league with 16 end zone targets on the year. Diggs has had at least 90 receiving yards or a score in 10-of-12 games this season, while finishing as a top-10 fantasy wide receiver in eight different contests. A matchup against Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed is tough but Diggs had 93 yards when these teams first met, in a game where Josh Allen played poorly. He’s still pretty easily a top-five wideout.
Gabe Davis, meanwhile, is a lot more difficult to decide on. We know he is already a boom-or-bust player, having three games as a top-15 wide receiver, but four games outside the top 50. He saved his day with a touchdown catch last week. That said, the interesting thing is, Davis’ targets have actually been solid as of late, averaging 7.25 over his last four games. Again, six teams are on bye, making it a lot more difficult to place a player with Davis’ upside on the bench. And there is plenty of upside, as he still ranks 23rd in yards per target (10.08) and third in yards per reception (19.0). He struggled when these teams first met, catching two passes for 33 yards and he’ll have a tough matchup at all times in this game. The Jets are also allowing the third-fewest yards per pass attempt this season (6.4) and fourth-fewest yards per completion (9.3), making Davis an even more volatile play than usual.
Tight End
Dawson Knox scored zero fantasy points last week, as his usage in this Buffalo offense continues to underwhelm. Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey does not dial up any designed targets for Knox, which is pretty odd considering the Bills just recently gave the starting tight end a contract extension. If there was any week for Knox to see more involvement, it would be against a Jets defense that has two tremendous defensive backs on the perimeter. As a result, opposing tight ends are averaging 7.5 targets per game against the Jets this season, good for the fifth-most in the league, but it is incredibly difficult to start Knox with any sort of confidence.
Jets
Quarterback
In his second start of the year, Mike White posted his second-straight 300-yard outing against the Vikings. He failed to throw for a touchdown but did rush for one from a yard out. Throwing the ball 57 times certainly helps but there is no denying how much his presence has helped this entire offense. A road matchup with the Bills doesn’t seem ideal, and White was awful against this team last year, but that was a much healthier version of this Buffalo defense. Still, the Bills are getting healthier in the secondary and are allowing the sixth-lowest passing touchdown rate in football on the year (3.6%). I am perfectly fine with White as a QB2 in superflex formats, but I would not be looking to stream him in one-quarterback leagues.
Running Back
With Michael Carter out with an ankle injury last week, Zonovan Knight drew the start at running back. And while the Jets said they would use all three running backs, it really wasn’t the case, as Knight played 55% of the snaps and touched the ball 20 times for 118 yards. James Robinson, who was active after being a healthy scratch a week ago, only played nine snaps and had four touches. Knight also ran two more pass routes than Ty Johnson, who did play 7-of-8 third downs, but he also only played three more snaps in the two-minute drill than Knight. We’ll see if Carter is back this week but either way, I think Knight is now at least the 1A in this Jets backfield after how well he’s played over the last two weeks, especially after how the team has been raving about him. He should be in line for 15-18 touches and when these teams last met, both Carter and Robinson found plenty of success running the football, though it is worth pointing out that Jordan Poyer and Matt Milano didn’t play in that game. Still, Knight should be in line for 14-18 touches against a Bills defense that is more vulnerable against the run than the pass. He’s a low-end RB2 for me this week.
Wide Receiver
You think Garrett Wilson is enjoying the Jets change at quarterback?
The rookie wide receiver shined again last week, catching eight passes for 162 yards. He was targeted 15 times for a 27% target share and in two games with Mike White under center, Wilson has posted stat lines of 5-95-2 and 8-162-0. Wilson also simply continues to post terrific numbers in games where Zach Wilson is not under center for the Jets, averaging 11 targets, 6.2 receptions, 94 receiving yards and 20.3 fantasy points per game, while sporting a target per route run rate of around 30% in the split. He’ll face a healing Buffalo secondary that saw Tre’Davious White play 61% of the snaps last week, but Wilson is a must-start WR2 right now.
Corey Davis also saw 10 targets last week, though it was in a game where the Jets threw the ball nearly 60 times. The Jets are nine-point road favorites here so if Buffalo’s offense delivers, they should have to throw again, and Davis has been much more productive against zone coverage this season, which is mostly what the Bills deploy. According to Player Profiler, Davis is averaging 2.46 fantasy points per target against zone coverage compared to 0.93 against man coverage. He’s a deep league flex play if bye weeks are decimating your roster.
Tight End
Tyler Conklin is coming off a quiet game, though he did see a healthy seven targets. Conklin has lived on the TE2 borderline for most of the season and will remain there ahead of a matchup with a Bills defense that is allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (9.4), while Buffalo is one of only two teams that have yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end this season. The only other team? The New York Jets.
Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys
Total: 45, DAL -17
Pace: DAL: 27.09 sec/snap (12th), HOU: 28.6 sec/snap (23rd)
What to watch for: Brandin Cooks missed last week’s game with a calf injury.
Cowboys
Quarterback
Since Week 7, Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys have been dominating the league. During that stretch, he ranks third in completion percentage (71%), 10th in yards per attempt (7.8), second in touchdown passes (13) and fifth in fantasy points per dropback (0.59). The Cowboys offense leads the league in scoring by a decent margin since Prescott’s return and you are continuing to start Prescott as a rock-solid QB1 in fantasy. The only concern is if the Dallas ground attack just dominates this game and leaves little room for Prescott. Opposing offenses are averaging just 29.6 pass attempts per game against the Texans this season, the third fewest in football and we have seen Prescott attempt more than 30 passes just once since Week 7. Dallas’ defense and running game should be able to carry this week and as huge home favorites, this could easily be a 25-pass-attempt game from Prescott. Let’s hope he throws a couple of touchdowns on those pass attempts, but I am not getting away from Prescott this week.
Running Back
Both Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard are top-10 running backs this week. After Pollard led the team in carries in Week 12, Elliott led the way with 17 carries for 77 yards and a score last week, while adding three receptions. Pollard remained insanely efficient, rushing for 91 yards and a pair of scores on 12 carries. Both running backs should see 15-20 touches against the worst run defense in football. Houston is surrendering the most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, as well as the most rushing yards (144.3) and most rushing touchdowns (1.17) per game to opposing running backs. 15.1% of the runs against the Texans have gained 10 or more yards this season, the third-highest rate in football, which bodes especially well for Pollard, who is third in runs of 10-plus yards (26). Nearly 18% of his runs have gained at least 10 yards, one of the highest rates in the league. Meanwhile, the Texans also rank fourth in missed tackles (65), which bodes well for Elliott. Pollard and Elliott should be in every single fantasy lineup and if both players are on your roster, I’d start them both.
Wide Receiver
CeeDee Lamb caught 5-of-7 targets for 71 yards and a touchdown last week, and his usage was awesome. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Lamb was in pre-snap motion on over 40% of his snaps, the highest rate of his career, while all 94 of his scrimmage yards came from pre-snap motion. It is exactly how you want your star wide receiver to be utilized and if it continues, Lamb could be even better than he has been over the course of the season. Lamb was in the slot for just over half of his snaps last week, which is notable considering the Texans have been much better against perimeter wide receivers this season. Of course, their overall numbers against wideouts look good because running backs dominate against them, but Lamb should still continue to command a hefty target share, regardless of how many times the Cowboys drop back to pass in this game.
Michael Gallup scored twice last week, while tying for the team-high in targets with seven. Gallup is emerging as a viable WR3 in most leagues, though he is pretty volatile in this spot, mainly because the Cowboys shouldn’t have to throw very often. The Texans have done a pretty good job against perimeter wide receivers over the course of the season, but Gallup has touchdown upside in the league’s hottest offense.
Source: NFL Next Gen Stats
Tight End
Dalton Schultz was the only member of the Dallas offense who didn’t really produce during last week’s dismantling of the Colts but he’s still an obvious must-start, top-five tight end. Schultz has finished as a top-six fantasy tight end in four games alongside Prescott this season and is the TE5 in fantasy since Prescott returned in Week 7.
Texans
Quarterback
Davis Mills will start at quarterback once again, as the Texans continue to make moves. You are absolutely not starting him against one of the three best defenses in football, especially with the Cowboys sporting the league’s highest pressure rate at 29.3%. Dallas is also allowing the fourth-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.5), as well as the fewest plays of 20 yards or more.
Running Back
While he didn’t find the end zone, it was still a solid bounceback game from Dameon Pierce last week. The rookie carried the ball 18 times for 73 yards, adding three receptions for 22 yards. With Pierce, it is all about either getting off to a good start or the Texans keeping the game close long enough for Pierce to rack up the touches, both of which are a concern in a road matchup with the Cowboys. You can run on the Cowboys, as they are surrendering the ninth-most rushing yards per game this season (129.8), while 14.1% of the runs against the Cowboys have gained 10 or more yards, the fourth-highest rate in football. However, they are also allowing just 18.8 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, the fifth fewest in the league, as they have only surrendered six rushing touchdowns all year long, the third fewest in football. Pierce is a low-end RB2/high-end flex this week.
Wide Receiver
Brandin Cooks missed last week’s game with a calf injury and did not practice to start the week. In his absence last game, Nico Collins was Houston’s clear WR1, seeing 10 targets and a 27% target share. Collins was targeted on 36% of his routes but only caught 3-of-10 targets. Luckily, one of those receptions went for a touchdown. Over the last four weeks, Collins is averaging a strong nine targets per game and even if Cooks plays, he has been seeing more targets than the veteran wideout anyway. The matchup is difficult, but the gamescript should lead to 8-10 targets once again for Collins … if he’s available. He missed practice Wednesday and Thursday. We need to keep an eye on his status leading up to Sunday.
Tight End
Jordan Akins and Brevin Jordan combined for 10 targets last week, with Akins playing 52% of the snaps and running 24 routes and Jordan playing 37% of the snaps and running 10 routes. Akins has 11 targets over the last two weeks, but rookie Teagan Quitoriano’s role continues to grow, as he played over 70% of the snaps last week. It is difficult to generate much excitement for a Houston tight end.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
Total: 41, TEN -4
Pace: TEN: 29.7 sec/snap (32nd), JAC: 26.28 sec/snap (3rd)
What to watch for: Trevor Lawrence is considered day-to-day with a toe injury. Treylon Burks is in the concussion protocol for the Titans.
Titans
Quarterback
Tennessee is coming off a rough game against the Eagles last week, as Ryan Tannehill completed just 14-of-22 passes for 141 yards and one touchdown. As always with Tannehill, you are hoping for strong efficiency because the passing volume is rarely there. This week’s matchup against the Jaguars presents some upside, as Jacksonville is surrendering the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers this season (19.0). Jacksonville has also allowed seven passing touchdowns off play-action this season, the fourth-most in the league, which is good for Tannehill, who ranks 10th in the league in play-action dropback rate (30.2%), while 28% of his pass attempts are coming off the play type. The Jaguars are also allowing opposing offenses to score touchdowns on 61% of red zone trips this year, the eighth-highest mark in the league, which bodes well for Tennessee’s elite red zone offense. Tannehill is a high-end QB2 for me this week.
Running Back
Derrick Henry has struggled over the last two weeks, rushing for 68 yards on 28 carries. The efficiency has really come down since Week 10, as Henry ranks 27th in yards after contact per attempt (2.51), 11th in missed tackles forced (11), 42nd in yards per attempt (2.8) and 39th in runs of 10-plus yards (1) during that span. It has been a rough stretch but at least Henry has seen three targets in all but one game during that time frame. You are still starting him as a solid RB1, especially against a Jaguars defense that is allowing the eighth-most rushing touchdowns per game to opposing running backs (0.83), while Jacksonville also ranks sixth in missed tackles (64). Hopefully this is the week the efficiency comes back and as long as the Titans don’t fall behind, 20-25 carries should be in the forecast for Henry.
Wide Receiver
Treylon Burks suffered a concussion against the Eagles last week and did not practice Wednesday. He’ll have to clear the protocol in order to play this week but given how most players have missed at least one week after suffering a concussion, it seems unlikely that Burks will be active this week. Robert Woods and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine will operate as the top two pass-catchers for the Titans but are still desperation flex plays at best in this low volume passing offense.
Tight End
I’m not saying you should start Chigoziem Okonkwo this week, but I’m also not saying you shouldn’t start him.
My favorite sleeper tight end of the week, Okonkwo has made plenty of plays for the Titans this season. He led Tennessee in receiving last week with 68 yards and now has a reception of at least 30 yards in each of his last five games. Okonkwo saw a bump in playing time once Burks left the game last week, as the Titans had been running more 11 personnel as of late but went back to heavy 12 personnel once Burks exited. It led to a season-high in snap share for Okonkwo (58%), while running a route on 60% of dropbacks. Okonkwo leads all tight ends with at least 25 targets in yards per route run (2.75) and yards after the catch per reception (10.3) and now faces a Jaguars defense that is surrendering the sixth-most yards after the catch in football (1,499). Jacksonville is also coughing up the fourth-most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends (58.8), as well as a league-high 9.3 yards per target to the position, making Okonkwo a really, really viable tight end streamer this week, especially if Burks doesn’t play.
Jaguars
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence is dealing with a sprained left toe. While he didn’t practice Wednesday, it sounds like he’ll get back out there Thursday or Friday. He and the Jaguars had a rough game against Detroit last week, as their offense couldn’t sustain drives, while their defense couldn’t get off the field. As long as he is active, Lawrence projects as a high-end QB2 against a pass funnel Tennessee defense that just allowed almost 400 passing yards and three touchdowns to Jalen Hurts a week ago. 76.9% of the yardage surrendered by the Titans this season have come through the air, the highest rate in football, while 78.5% of the touchdowns against them have been via the pass, also the highest rate. Teams tend to abandon the run against the Titans, so it wouldn’t shock me to see a 40-plus pass attempt game from Lawrence this weekend.
Running Back
After missing most of last week’s game with a foot injury, Travis Etienne was good to go last week. He didn’t aggravate the injury and was not limited at all, logging 88% of the snaps and running a route on 27-of-39 dropbacks (69%). Gamescript was not in his favor, while the Jaguars only ran 55 plays on Sunday, limiting Etienne to “only” 16 touches. This is an absolutely brutal matchup, and you will likely need Etienne to rip off a long run or make an impact in the passing game, which is possible against a Tennessee defense that is coughing up the most receptions (6.8) and targets (9.0) per game to opposing running backs this season. I am still starting Etienne as a strong RB2, but I am also tempering expectations a bit here.
Wide Receiver
The strong volume continued for Christian Kirk last week, as the veteran slot receiver caught 6-of-8 targets for 104 yards against the Lions. Kirk has now seen at least eight targets in each of his last four games and since Week 8, he is averaging a healthy nine targets per game. Tennessee has actually been a lot better against opposing slot receivers this season but overall, wide receivers are averaging the most fantasy points per game against the Titans. Kirk is a low-end WR2 ahead of this divisional matchup.
After a career day in Week 12, Zay Jones disappointed last week against the Lions, hauling in just 2-of-7 targets for 16 yards. Jones had multiple drops in this game, including one from inside the five-yard line. This could be a potential bounce back spot, however, as the Titans are surrendering the third-most receptions (4.5), most receiving yards (65.8) and second-most fantasy points (13.6) per game to opposing wide receivers on the right side of the formation, which is where Jones lines up for over 30% of his routes.
Tight End
Evan Engram found the end zone and, per usual, ran a ton of routes and was on the field for most of the game. That usage will keep him in the high-end TE2 range against a Tennessee defense that is coughing up the fifth-most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends on the season (58.4).
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
Total: 44.5, PHI -7
Pace: NYG: 27.6 sec/snap (16th), PHI: 26.81 sec/snap (8th)
What to watch for: WR Quez Watkins is dealing with an AC joint sprain in his shoulder.
Giants
Quarterback
Daniel Jones is coming off a solid fantasy outing last week, completing 25-of-31 passes for 200 yards and a touchdown, while adding 71 rushing yards on 12 attempts. Like usual, Jones’ upside comes in games where he adds a lot of production on the ground and in games he doesn’t, his total numbers aren’t very fantasy relevant. For the season, Jones is averaging 7.6 rushing attempts, 1.8 red zone rushing attempts and 43.5 rushing yards per game, all of which rank fifth among quarterbacks. He’ll likely need to provide a lot of rushing production this week against a tough Eagles pass defense that is surrendering the sixth-lowest passing touchdown rate in football (3.5%), as well as the second-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.0). Jones is a middling QB2.
Running Back
Saquon Barkley found the end zone last week but once again wasn’t very efficient against a tough Washington run defense, rushing for 63 yards on 18 carries, while adding five receptions for just 18 yards. The 23 touches were Barkley’s most in a game since Week 10, though he still ranks top-three in the league with an 84% opportunity share. Philadelphia, meanwhile, had been vulnerable against the run until last week when they shut Derrick Henry down to the tune of 30 rushing yards on 11 carries. The Eagles got defensive tackle Jordan Davis back last week, on top of already adding both Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh to a defensive line that already featured Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham and Javon Hargrave. It is good to see Barkley have at least five targets in four of his last five games and the overall volume isn’t going anywhere. Hopefully the efficiency can climb, but you are starting Saquon Barkley.
Wide Receiver
Darius Slayton was productive once again last week, catching six passes for 90 yards. He was targeted eight times, as he continues to operate as the Giants clear top wide receiver. Since Week 7, Slayton ranks 14th among all wide receivers in receiving yards (458), 10th in yards per target (11.7), eighth in yards per reception (18.3) and 22nd in fantasy points. He has at least 58 receiving yards in every game during that span, while sporting a solid target share of 23%, the 15th-highest rate among all wideouts. The volume should be there, but this is a brutal matchup against Darius Slay and James Bradberry, making Slayton a viable WR3, though expectations are being tempered here.
Tight End
Rookie tight end Daniel Bellinger returned to the lineup last week, catching all five of his targets for 24 yards. He logged 64-of-66 snaps, running a route on 33-of-40 dropbacks, which was great to see, especially since this Giants offense desperately needs a second option in the passing game. He’ll need to score a touchdown to get you there, but Bellinger is worth a look in deep leagues.
Eagles
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts is coming off a magical performance against the Titans, completing 29-of-39 passes for a season-high 380 yards and three touchdowns, while adding a rushing touchdown. Against Tennessee’s elite run defense, the Eagles wisely went very pass-heavy, especially on early downs. They should be able to run the ball this week, but Hurts will once again get his. He has finished as a top-five fantasy quarterback in eight weeks this season, while also adding two weeks as the QB6 and the QB7. He’ll now face the blitz-heavy Giants who are blitzing at the highest rate in football (40.8%). Hurts is sixth in the league in passing yards against the blitz this season (795) with seven touchdown passes. Expect more fantasy fireworks from Hurts this weekend.
Running Back
With the Eagles focusing on the passing game against the Titans last week, Miles Sanders was limited to just 10 carries for 24 yards, though he did save his day with a touchdown. I fully expect Philadelphia to get back to the run against the Giants this week. New York is surrendering the second-most yards before contact per rush attempt in the league (2.95), while 15.6% of the runs against the Giants have gained 10 or more yards this season, the highest rate in the league. Sanders, meanwhile, is tied for third in the league in runs of 10-plus yards (26), making this an ideal spot. With the Giants also surrendering the fourth-most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs (118.5), Sanders projects as a rock-solid RB2 in this NFC East matchup.
Wide Receiver
A.J. Brown reminded his former team what they are missing last week, exploding for eight receptions for 119 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Titans. He’s now scored three touchdowns over the last two weeks and should be able to keep it going against a banged-up, struggling Giants secondary that just allowed Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel to combine for 222 yards and two touchdowns last week. Brown will see primary coverage from Fabian Moreau, who is allowing 0.26 fantasy points per coverage route on the year. With Adoree’ Jackson still sidelined, the Giants don’t have anyone in their secondary that can defend Brown. DeVonta Smith also found the end zone last week, catching five passes for 102 yards. Over the past three games since Dallas Goedert has been sidelined, Smith has been the WR16 in fantasy, while sporting an awesome 30.2% target share, one of the highest rates in all of football during that stretch. Smith remains a strong WR2 play in this favorable matchup, especially with Goedert not quite ready to return just yet.
Tight End
Dallas Goedert will be back in Week 15. Just hold on for one more week.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Total: 44, KC -9
Pace: DEN: 26.75 sec/snap (6th), KC: 26.57 sec/snap (5th)
What to watch for: Courtland Sutton (hamstring) is unlikely to play this week. Meanwhile, Kadarius Toney could return for the Chiefs.
Broncos
Quarterback
Eight passing touchdowns in 11 games. Four games with less than 200 passing yards. 0.36 fantasy points per dropback (26th). You haven’t been starting Russell Wilson for weeks outside of some superflex formats, and even against a Kansas City team that is going to force you to throw the ball against them, you still aren’t starting him. Again, there should be immense volume in this game, as the Broncos are large underdogs here, while opposing offenses are averaging 36 pass attempts per game against the Chiefs (fourth most), while sporting the fourth-highest passing play percentage (61.5%). Kansas City is also the third-worst red zone defense in football, allowing opponents to score touchdowns on 65.9% of red zone trips this season, which is a sight for sore eyes for the league’s worst red zone offense. But even as I sit here, trying to make an argument for Wilson, I just can’t do it.
Running Back
Latavius Murray had an every-down role in Week 12, but with Mike Boone back in the lineup this past weekend, the veteran’s playing time dropped a bit. Murray’s snap share fell from 82% to 68% last week, as Boone played some on passing downs. In his second game back this week, he could see some more playing time, especially if the Broncos do fall behind and are chasing points. This makes Murray a low-ceiling, risky RB3/flex play.
Wide Receiver
Jerry Jeudy returned to action last week, but now Courtland Sutton is unlikely to play with a hamstring injury. Jeudy was very limited in his first game back, playing 38% of the snaps and running just 11 pass routes. However, he was targeted four times on those 11 routes, resulting in four receptions for 65 yards. As long as his playing time rises this week, Jeudy should be in store for a healthy number of targets, especially with Sutton expected to be out. It’ll be interesting how often Jeudy plays on the outside and in the slot with Sutton and K.J. Hamler sidelined, as this matchup against Kansas City is more favorable to slot wide receivers. Regardless, Jeudy should see 8-10 targets as long as he is playing his normal allotment of snaps this week, which makes him a high-end WR3.
Tight End
Rookie tight end Greg Dulcich is coming off a busy day against the Ravens, hauling in six passes for 85 yards. He was targeted eight times for a 38% target share, while he ran a route on 81% of dropbacks and was targeted on 36% of his routes. Dulcich also saw plenty of work down the field last game, seeing a position-high 91 air yards, accounting for over 42% of Denver’s air yardage. And without Sutton, this team really doesn’t have many players that can stretch the field vertically outside of Dulcich. His 10 deep targets are the third-most among all tight ends over the course of the season and despite playing in an inept Denver offense, Dulcich is a borderline must-start tight end this week.
Chiefs
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes is coming off a good-not-great fantasy outing against the Bengals, passing for a season-low 223 yards and a touchdown, while adding a rushing touchdown. It was his first game since Week 5 where Mahomes failed to throw for at least 300 yards and now he faces a stout Denver pass defense that is allowing the fewest yards per pass attempt in football (5.9), as well as the lowest passing touchdown rate (2.2%). Of course, you are still absolutely starting Mahomes without any hesitation whatsoever.
Running Back
In terms of playing time, the Chiefs running backs were a 50/50 split last week with Isiah Pacheco playing 25 snaps and Jerick McKinnon also playing 25. Pacheco handled most of the work on early downs, as expected, rushing 14 times for 66 yards and a touchdown, while adding two receptions for 16 yards. Pacheco has now found the end zone in consecutive games and if the Chiefs are playing with a comfortable lead throughout this game, the rookie could see 18-20 carries. The issue, however, is the fact that McKinnon is not only dominating the work in the passing game, but he is also playing quite a bit in the red zone. You can certainly run on the Broncos, who are coughing 4.5 yards per carry to opposing running backs and Pacheco should see 15-20 carries. He’s a fine flex play, while McKinnon is a viable flex in PPR leagues, as he should see 10 touches and most of the work in a passing game that is tied to Patrick Mahomes.
Wide Receiver
JuJu Smith-Schuster has now had consecutive quiet games following his return from a concussion. In his first game back in Week 12, Smith-Schuster was limited, playing just 38%, but the snap share climbed to 76% this past weekend. He ran a route on 24-of-30 dropbacks and while the production wasn’t great, Smith-Schuster still projects as a high-end WR3 this week, while it certainly helps that he should avoid Pat Surtain for most of this game.
Tight End
Somehow, Travis Kelce failed to either reach 90 yards or score a touchdown last week, something I didn’t know was actually possible. He also lost a fumble in the game, making it easily his worst game of the season. I fully expect him to get back on track this week against a Denver defense that is surrendering the ninth-most targets per game to opposing tight ends this season (7.3). There is obvious upside with Kelce every week, especially in the touchdown department, as he ranks eighth in all of football in end zone targets with nine.
Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks
Total: 44, SEA -4
Pace: SEA: 27.38 sec/snap (13th), CAR: 27.85 sec/snap (19th)
What to watch for: The Seattle backfield is a mess right now. Kenneth Walker, DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer are all dealing with injuries.
Seahawks
Quarterback
He won’t win the award, but I truly believe Geno Smith should be ranked among the top-five MVP candidates this season. Smith has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league, ranking top-five in EPA per dropback, while completing nearly 73% of his passes for 3,169 yards, 22 touchdowns and just six interceptions. His stellar season continued Sunday, as he threw for 367 yards and three touchdowns. It was his sixth consecutive game with multiple touchdown passes and his 10th multi-touchdown game over the course of the season. With the injuries to Seattle’s backfield last week, we saw Seattle throw the ball more, especially on early downs, and if the running backs aren’t healthy this week, the Seahawks could continue to rely on their thriving passing game. A matchup with the Panthers certainly isn’t a walk in the park, as they are allowing 9.4 yards per completion (seventh lowest) and 6.6 yards per pass attempt (5th-lowest) but Smith remains a low-end QB1 each and every week. He’s been unbelievable.
Running Back
I would love to give you sound advice on what to do here but at the moment, I simply don’t know.
Kenneth Walker left last week’s game with what is being called a strained ankle and he did not practice Wednesday. In his absence Sunday, DeeJay Dallas was set to take over as the lead running back but he suffered an ankle injury, which limited his snaps during the second half of the game. Tony Jones then saw nine touches, though he didn’t do much with them. If Walker can get a full practice session in by Friday, he’s a must-start running back. But if he is inactive, this backfield could be a complete avoid. Travis Homer, who is the third down running back, should be back for this game. My guess is that if Walker were the only running back to miss this game, Dallas would handle the early-down work with Homer seeing a few carries, but mostly factoring in one third downs and in the two-minute drill.
We are honestly going to have to just keep tabs on this situation throughout the week. The Panthers are allowing the ninth-most yards per carry this season (4.6), as well as the 10th-most rushing touchdowns (13), so this is a solid spot for whoever starts at running back. Dallas and/or Homer would be on the flex radar if they are active and Walker is not.
Wide Receiver
DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett absolutely dominated last week, as both wideouts eclipsed the 100-yard mark and found the end zone. Lockett has now scored a touchdown in each of his last five games, while Metcalf is seeing more volume most weeks. Still, this Seattle passing game is so concentrated that both wideouts are going to succeed more often than not. Metcalf continues to dominate the high-value targets, as he’s accounted for 41.7% of the team’s red zone targets and 45% of Seattle’s targets from inside the 10-yard line, both of which are the highest rates in all of football. The Panthers have been an above-league-average defense in the red zone this season, but they are allowing the 11th-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season. The matchup is especially interesting for Metcalf, who operates on the left side of the formation over 60% of the time. That would lead to coverage from Jaycee Horn, who is allowing just 0.09 fantasy points per coverage route this season, while allowing a reception every 19.6 coverage snaps, the best rate among qualified defensive backs. However, the Panthers are allowing the fifth-most receptions (4.7) and 10th-most fantasy points (10.6) per game to opposing wideouts on the left side of the field.
Carolina plays a lot more zone courage than man coverage, which tells most of the story. Lockett has been productive against zone coverage this season, ranking 14th in the league in yards per route run (2.31), eighth in receptions (43) and eighth in receiving yards (552) against the defense. Both Seattle wideouts are borderline top-12 options this week.
Tight End
Noah Fant caught four passes for 42 yards and a touchdown last week. He was targeted five times, three more than Will Dissly, but the two once again continued to essentially split both snaps and routes. A matchup against the Panthers isn’t exactly one to chase a tight end in a committee, as Carolina is allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season (10.1). Good luck.
Panthers
Quarterback
Sam Darnold will once again start at quarterback for the Panthers this week. He was serviceable before the team’s bye back in Week 12, passing for 164 yards and a touchdown. Darnold made a few really impressive throws against the Broncos but because Carolina wasn’t pushed to score, he only attempted 19 passes. He’ll have to throw a lot more this week and while Seattle’s defense has taken a step back lately, you still would have to really be hurting at the quarterback position to consider Darnold in most fantasy lineups.
Running Back
Coming out of the bye week, D’Onta Foreman is dealing with foot and rib injuries, which kept him out of practice Wednesday. It doesn’t sound like something that will sideline him for this game, but we will obviously need to make sure he practices in some capacity this week. Foreman has been very good since taking over the lead role at running back, rushing for 100 yards in four of six games since Carolina traded Christian McCaffrey. As long as he is active, Foreman will project as a low-end RB2 against a Seattle defense that has struggled against the run as of late. We obviously saw what Josh Jacobs did to this defense in Week 12, but the Seahawks also just allowed a pair of touchdowns to Cam Akers last week. Only the Lions and Bears have allowed more rushing touchdowns than the Seahawks this season (16), while only the Texans have allowed more rushing yards per game (155.3). Seattle is also coughing up 2.60 yards before contact per rush, the fifth-highest mark in the league, while also allowing the fifth-most yards after contact per rush (2.33), making this an awesome spot for Foreman.
Wide Receiver
Darnold starting at quarterback is actually pretty good news for DJ Moore, who had his second-best game of the season with Darnold under center in Week 12. Moore caught four passes for 103 yards and a touchdown and while the six targets don’t look great on the surface, when you consider that the Panthers attempted 19 passes, they start to look amazing. In 13 games since the start of last season, Moore is averaging 9.4 targets, 5.5 receptions, 73.1 receiving yards and 14.9 PPR points per game with Darnold under center, compared to 7.9 targets, 4.1 receptions, 50.9 receiving yards and 11.1 points per game in all other contests. Moore remains a tremendous talent and we saw that two weeks ago when he won a matchup with one of the game’s top defensive backs in Pat Surtain, and he should see at least a 25% target share the rest of the way. On the season, Moore has handled 27% of Carolina’s targets, the eighth-highest rate in the league. He is a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 for me.
Tight End
Ian Thomas and Tommy Tremble should not be in fantasy lineups.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers
Total: 37, SF -3.5
Pace: SF: 29.65 sec/snap (30th), TB: 25.78 sec/snap (2nd)
What to watch for: Brock Purdy will start at QB with Jimmy Garoppolo out for the season.
49ers
Quarterback
Brock Purdy wasn’t even 1 year old when Tom Brady entered the NFL. Now the final selection of the 2022 NFL Draft will start a game against him. Purdy looked pretty comfortable in relief of Jimmy Garoppolo last week, completing 25-of-37 passes for 210 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. Purdy severely lacks high-end arm strength, but he went through his progressions relatively well and while he isn’t going to post huge numbers or anything, we do know this Kyle Shanahan offense is arguably the most quarterback-friendly in all of football. It revolves around pre-snap motion, quick passes and a lot of yards after the catch, so as long as Purdy can get the ball into his playmakers’ hands, he’ll be fine.
Running Back
This time last week, we were wondering just how healthy Christian McCaffrey was and how much work he’d get. McCaffrey himself stated he would see a full workload and that was exactly the case Sunday, as he touched the ball 25 times for 146 yards and a touchdown. McCaffrey was targeted 10 times, catching eight passes for 80 yards, while logging 82% of the snaps and running a route on 37-of-45 dropbacks (82%). With Elijah Mitchell sidelined, Jordan Mason operated as the backup running back, carrying the ball eight times for 51 yards. McCaffrey has seen at least six targets in every full game since joining San Francisco and with Purdy under center, he should continue to see a healthy target share. Regardless of who is under center for San Francisco, McCaffrey remains a top-five fantasy running back.
Wide Receiver
All 10 of Deebo Samuel’s targets last week came with Purdy under center, as the seventh-round rookie looked his way early and often. Samuel hasn’t scored a receiving touchdown since Week 5, though he did rush for a touchdown a few weeks ago. He carried the ball four times last week, as San Francisco continues to manufacture touches for one of the best football players on the planet. It is just a one-game sample size, but it was nice to see Samuel lead the team in targets. He does have a tougher matchup of the San Francisco wideouts this week, facing Jamel Dean, who is surrendering just 0.17 fantasy points per coverage route and a 50% catch rate this season, though Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk both play out of the slot around 30% of the time. They could do damage when lined up on the inside, as rookie Zyon McCollum has struggled this year, allowing 0.32 fantasy points per coverage route to go along with a 76% catch rate. He’ll remain the starting slot defensive back if Antoine Winfield Jr. isn’t back in the lineup this week, while Mike Edwards and Sean Murphy-Bunting were also out last week. Samuel will likely slide in around WR20 for me for now, while Aiyuk could fall to WR3 status, as he was incredibly consistent with Garoppolo under center.
Tight End
George Kittle has now been under 30 receiving yards in consecutive games, as he continues to have some slate-breaking outings and some “why the hell isn’t Kittle getting 8-10 targets per game?” outings. On a per-target basis, Kittle remains as good as any tight end in football, however, he simply doesn’t see the usage that Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews see. The problem, however, is that Kittle is too good and has too much upside to even remotely consider benching, especially in a favorable matchup. The Bucs are surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points (14.5), 10th-most targets (7.2) and ninth-most receiving yards (54.7) per game to opposing tight ends. Tampa Bay just allowed Taysom Hill to score a 30-yard touchdown against them, while David Njoku found the end zone against them in Week 12.
Buccaneers
Quarterback
For three and a half quarters, Tom Brady was having a horrible game Monday. But during the fourth quarter, Brady passed for about 150 yards and a pair of touchdowns, ultimately finishing with a respectable 18 fantasy points. The same issues held this Tampa Bay offense back, as the offensive line struggled to give Brady time, while he continued to release the ball almost immediately. He is averaging 2.27 seconds to throw, the fastest rate in football, and he’ll likely be getting the ball out of his hands very quickly against a San Francisco pass rush that is generating pressure at the seventh-highest rate in the league (24%). The 49ers are also allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks on the year (13.0), making this a pretty scary spot for Brady. He’s a QB2 with a decent floor but limited ceiling.
QBs I’d start over Brady: Jared Goff, Tyler Huntley, Ryan Tannehill
Running Back
With Leonard Fournette active last week, Tampa Bay deployed a committee at running back. Rachaad White drew the start, carrying the ball nine times for 28 yards, while adding six receptions for 41 yards and a touchdown. He logged 41% of the snaps compared to Fournette’s 61%, while the veteran touched the ball 16 times. In this Tampa Bay offense that is reliant on the short passing game, both running backs combined for a whopping 12 receptions on 15 targets. While it may not be to that extent, I do believe the targets are sustainable for both Fournette and White, especially this week against an elite pass rush that won’t give Brady much time to scan the field. Brady is currently third in the league in pass attempts behind the line of scrimmage (87), while running backs have accounted for nearly 20% of the Bucs’ targets. I don’t envision Tampa Bay’s ground attack to find much success against the best run defense in football, but the work in the passing game should keep both running backs in the low-end RB2 range in full PPR formats.
Wide Receiver
Chris Godwin’s elite volume continued last week, as he caught eight passes for 63 yards on 13 targets. He has now seen double-digit targets in six of his last seven games, while catching at least six passes in every game since returning to the lineup back in Week 4. Godwin has provided one of the safest floors in all of fantasy and if it weren’t for a holding penalty, he’d have three consecutive games with a touchdown. With how this offense is constructed right now, Godwin is going to remain the first read, as he is operating out of the slot and running routes much closer to the line of scrimmage. Godwin is playing out of the slot 73.4% of the time this season, which makes this a more advantageous matchup for him. San Francisco is coughing up the second-most receptions (5.5), second-most receiving yards (77) and most fantasy points per game (16.2) to opposing pass-catchers from the slot this season.
Mike Evans underwhelmed again last week, catching four passes for 59 yards. He was only targeted four times, but it wasn’t because he couldn’t get open. Evans was wide open on most of his routes against the Saints, but Brady either wasn’t looking his way or didn’t have time to let his deep routes develop. Brady’s average time to throw is a concern for Evans, who has now failed to find the end zone since Week 4. A matchup against an elite pass rush that could force the ball out of Brady’s hands quickly doesn’t exactly bode well for Evans, but his ceiling is still too high and if Tampa Bay’s offense can finally get on track, he’ll return to posting low-end WR1/high-end WR2 numbers. But at the moment, especially in this tough matchup, Evans is a low-end WR2 with obvious upside.
Tight End
With Cameron Brate out with an illness last week, Cade Otton drew the start at tight end, logging 83% of the snaps, running a route on 46-of-55 dropbacks and saw 10 targets. Otton has been a borderline TE1 in games where Brate has been out of the lineup but the veteran tight end practiced fully Wednesday and will play Sunday, making Otton an incredibly risky TE2, especially against arguably the best coverage LB in football in Fred Warner.
Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Chargers
Total: 52, MIA -3
Pace: LAC: 25.49 sec/snap (1st), MIA: 27.8 sec/snap (20th)
What to watch for: Mike Williams continues to recover from an ankle sprain. He was limited in practice Wednesday.
Chargers
Quarterback
The injuries to the Chargers offensive line continue to hurt Justin Herbert, who was under pressure on 42.9% of his dropbacks against the Raiders last week. And in Week 12 against the Cardinals, Herbert was under pressure on 45.3% of dropbacks. Hopefully he has more time in the pocket this week against a Miami defense that is sporting the league’s 12th-lowest pressure rate (20.9%). He also could have all of his wide receivers fully healthy for the first time all season against a Miami defense that is coughing up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers this season (19.8). The Dolphins are also allowing the sixth-highest completion percentage (67.6%), as well as the fifth-worst play-action completion rate (71.9%) and fourth-most touchdown passes (7) off the play type. Herbert could have a huge game as long as he has time to throw this week. He’s a must-start QB1 in what could be a high-scoring affair.
Running Back
Austin Ekeler was very disappointing in a prime matchup last week, rushing for just 35 yards on 10 carries, while catching five passes for 67 yards. Ekeler also lost a fumble in the game but he’s still on pace to set the single season running back receptions record, as his 22% target share leads the position. Now he faces a Miami defense that has been solid against the run this season, stuffing 20% of carries at or behind the line of scrimmage. However, there is an avenue for running backs to succeed against them in the passing game, as they just allowed eight catches for 80 yards and a score to Christian McCaffrey last week. And on the season, the Dolphins are surrendering the ninth-most receiving yards per game to opposing running backs (42.8).
Wide Receiver
It was a quiet game for a while for Keenan Allen last week, but he came through with a miraculous 35-yard touchdown on fourth-and-12. He finished the game with six catches for 88 yards and the score, while seeing a whopping 14 targets. Allen has now found the end zone in consecutive games and now that he is fully recovered from his hamstring injury, he is a high-end WR2 with a strong weekly floor, especially if Herbert has to get the ball out quickly. Mike Williams, meanwhile, could return from his ankle injury, though I’d really like to see him get a full practice session in, as I’d be less worried about an aggravation. If he is active, I am starting him as a low-end WR2. He’ll see primary coverage from Keion Crossen, who is allowing 0.24 fantasy points per coverage route this season, as well as 17.1 yards per reception, the third-highest mark among all qualified defensive backs, which is great for Williams, who is the deep threat in this offense. You know, when Joe Lombardi actually dials up deep shots.
If Williams can’t return, I’d simply rank Josh Palmer where I would have ranked Williams. Palmer caught 7-of-11 targets last week and over his last five games, he is averaging 9.2 targets per game.
Tight End
Gerald Everett remains a borderline top-12 tight end. He caught 5-of-6 passes for 80 yards last week and if Williams remains sidelined, Everett will continue to see a larger role in the offense. This is a really good matchup, too, as the Dolphins are coughing up the third-most fantasy points (15.1), second-most receptions (6.0), sixth-most targets (7.4) and eighth-most receiving yards (56.6) per game to opposing tight ends.
Dolphins
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa is dealing with a minor ankle issue but is fully expected to play Sunday night. He is a very strong QB1 in what should be a high-scoring game against a Chargers defense that is allowing the fourth-highest passing touchdown rate in football (5.3%). Los Angeles is also coughing up the third-highest aDOT in the league (8.8 yards), as well as the eighth-most passing yards off deep passes (669) and the third-most touchdowns of 20 yards or more (6). That bodes well for Tagovailoa, who ranks third in the league in passing yards off deep passes (709), second in deep completion percentage (53.6%) and first in adjusted yards per pass attempt (9.6). And as an overall defense, the Chargers are allowing the sixth-most points (2.28) and ninth-most yards (33.5) per drive, while opposing offenses are scoring points on 42.9% of drives against Los Angeles this season, the fourth-highest rate in football. I absolutely love Tua this week.
Running Back
It wasn’t a surprise to see the Miami running backs do nothing against San Francisco’s elite run defense last week. It was surprising, however, to see Jeff Wilson only carry the ball once, while Raheem Mostert handled seven carries. He played 61% of the snaps, while Wilson played 37% but in a game this week against a much, much worse run defense, both running backs are very solid flex plays. I can’t guarantee who will get the most touches but 12-14 each could be enough against a Chargers defense that is surrendering 2.93 yards before contact per rush (third most) as well as the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields this season.
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill put together his sixth 100-yard game of the season last week, catching nine passes for 146 yards and a touchdown. He saw 14 targets, as teammate Jaylen Waddle only played 52% of the snaps. Hill still leads the entire NFL in targets per route run (33%), while also ranking second in air yards per route run (4.0). We just saw Davante Adams destroy this Chargers secondary last week, especially on deep passes. Hill should put together a huge performance once again, while Waddle has been limited in practice but is expected to play Sunday night. As long as he is active, he is a high-end WR2.
Tight End
Mike Gesicki couldn’t haul in his lone target of the game last week. He has two targets over the last two weeks and is being outplayed by Durham Smythe.
New England Patriots @ Arizona Cardinals
Total: 43.5, NE -1.5
Pace: ARI: 26.35 sec/snap (4th), NE: 29.34 sec/snap (26th)
What to watch for: Damien Harris continues to deal with a thigh injury that sidelined him last Thursday.
Cardinals
Quarterback
Arizona is coming off a bye and will face a good but potentially slightly overrated Patriots defense, at least against opposing signal callers. For the season, New England is allowing the 14th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, but they have faced Zach Wilson twice, Sam Ehlinger, Jacoby Brissett, Jared Goff (without Amon-Ra St. Brown) and Mitchell Trubisky. When they have faced much more talented quarterbacks, they have struggled, especially over the last two weeks to Kirk Cousins and Josh Allen. Murray has been really good as of late, scoring multiple touchdowns in each of his last four games, while also rushing for at least 30 yards in six consecutive games. The Patriots, who play a lot of man coverage, are also allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks (24.2), making this a much more favorable spot for Murray than the surface numbers might suggest.
Running Back
The matchup isn’t great for James Conner, but the usage is as high as any running back in the league right now. Over the last three weeks, Conner has logged 96%, 77% and 97% of the snaps for the Cardinals, while averaging a healthy 22.6 touches per game during that span. He has the role we saw without Chase Edmonds last year, where Conner is playing 90%-plus of the snaps, seeing work in the passing game and getting all of the short-yardage work, making him a must-start running back the rest of the way. Over his last three games, Conner has posted opportunity shares of 90%, 79% and 96%.
Wide Receiver
Before the bye in Week 12, we saw Marquise Brown and DeAndre Hopkins play together for the first time all season. In Brown’s first game back from injury, he actually led the team in targets with 8, catching six passes for 46 yards. He played 97% of the snaps so there were clearly no limitations for Brown, who is a solid WR2 for the rest of the season. With Rondale Moore sidelined, Brown played from the slot nearly 73% of the time, something that likely continues if Moore can’t return Monday. Of course, Hopkins is a must-start wide receiver. He found the end zone in Week 12 and since making his season debut in Week 7, Hopkins is the WR4 in fantasy.
Tight End
In two games since Zach Ertz’ injury, rookie Trey McBride has played 76% and 79% of the snaps, while running a route on 60-of-74 dropbacks (81%) during that span. Of course, it has only resulted in a total of five receptions for 15 yards on seven targets, making McBride a very risky TE2, despite the fact that he will be on the field and running routes. The matchup is solid, as the Patriots are allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (12.4).
Patriots
Quarterback
Mac Jones and the New England offense couldn’t put anything together against the Bills last Thursday but should be able to find more success against Arizona. For starters, it is a massive pace-up spot, facing an Arizona team that leads the NFL in no-huddle rate (32.6%). The Cardinals defense is also allowing the second-most points per drive (2.43), while opposing offenses are scoring points on 43.1% of drives against Arizona, the second-highest rate in football. The Cardinals are also coughing up the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers this season (20.2), making Jones a viable streaming option in deep leagues and a strong QB2 this week.
Running Back
Damien Harris missed last week’s game with a thigh injury but whether he plays or not, Rhamondre Stevenson will remain a top-12 running back. His usage in the passing game is just amazing, as Stevenson has seen at least five targets in each of his last seven games. Stevenson now has a 19.3% target share on the season, the third-highest rate among all running backs. With Harris out last week, Stevenson played an insane 98% of the snaps for the Patriots and handled 16-of-17 running back touches. Expect a similar role if Harris can’t return on Monday. You’d like to see him get in the end zone, but Stevenson’s floor is incredibly high right now. Arizona, meanwhile, is allowing the eighth-most receptions per game to opposing running backs (5.6), as well as the eighth-most receiving yards per game to the position (43.9).
Wide Receiver
Jakobi Meyers exited Thursday’s game late in the fourth quarter after taking a hard hit in the end zone. He has plenty of time to get healthy for this game — if he is active, Meyers will be a volume-based WR3, though Arizona has been very good against opposing top wide receivers this season. However, they have been missing top defensive back Byron Murphy since Week 9, and since then, the Cardinals haven’t been quite as good against opposing wide receivers. There is plenty of opportunity to make plays after the catch against Arizona, as they allow the most YAC in all of football (1,860), while they have missed the third-most tackles in football (66). If Meyers doesn’t play, DeVante Parker and Nelson Agholor would operate as New England’s top two wide receivers.
Tight End
If you are looking for a tight end streamer this week, Hunter Henry deserves your attention. Yes, the floor is relatively low, but the matchup is simply too good to overlook. Arizona is allowing the most fantasy points (19.0), most receptions (6.9), most targets (8.3) and most receiving yards (73.3) per game to opposing tight ends. Meanwhile, no team has allowed more touchdown catches to the tight end position this season than the Cardinals (9), which is enough to put Henry on the TE1/TE2 borderline this week, especially with six teams on bye.
