NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
There’s nothing quite like the allure of a promising NFL rookie. Their unproven nature oftentimes leads to ADPs being inflated with optimism, but that same optimism tends to vanish if the player doesn’t produce right out of the gates. This volatility is stressful for many, but it presents a golden opportunity for the savvy fantasy manager who can maintain a cool head amidst the hype (or lack thereof).
After witnessing just one NFL season from a young player, fans and fantasy managers tend to believe they know what the future entails for that player. Even though second- and third-year breakouts are far from uncommon, players who didn’t burst onto the scene in Year One quickly become afterthoughts. In this series, a few of the writers at FTN Fantasy will look back on some of the players drafted in 2021, determine what’s changed over the past year and recalibrate their outlooks for 2022.
Trey Sermon, RB, San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers selected former Ohio State running back Trey Sermon with the 88th pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Under Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco has had a knack for turning undrafted or late-round running backs into stars, so it was a bit surprising to see them invest a Day Two pick on the position. They clearly saw something they liked with Sermon, and that excitement led to plenty of optimism for fantasy football managers.
Coming out of Ohio State, Sermon’s most appealing trait was his ability to run with power. He’s not the quickest or most agile back, but he runs hard and knows how to use his strength to pick up extra yardage at the end of runs. His physicality also showed up in the passing game, where he proved to be a plus pass-blocker who possessed the receiving chops needed to be considered an every-down back. While he wasn’t an elite prospect by any stretch of the imagination, he checked a lot of boxes and appeared to have a game that could quickly translate to the professional level.
What Went Right
Not much really.
Sermon had a golden opportunity when two of San Francisco’s veteran backs – Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson – suffered injuries to open the door for playing time. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to make the most of his opportunity and was usurped by fellow rookie Elijah Mitchell on the depth chart.
On the season, Sermon accumulated an underwhelming 167 yards on just 41 carries (4.1 per attempt). Most of these stats (19 carries and 89 yards) came during the 49ers’ Week 4 matchup with Seattle where Sermon got the start due to more injuries at the running back position. He showed minor flashes in this game, but overall it was hard to consider his rookie season anything other than a disappointment.
What Went Wrong
Simply put, Sermon didn’t look like an NFL-ready player when he stepped onto the field. Even when injuries opened the door for him to log some touches, he wasn’t able to do much with the opportunity.
Looking at some advanced stats on FTN Fantasy, Sermon only forced seven missed tackles all season and logged just two explosive runs. This indicates that the majority of Sermon’s stats were nothing more than a product of the system, and the tape backs up this theory as well. Oftentimes it looked as though Sermon was playing a half step slower than everyone else on the field. It’s tough to identify exactly why this was the case – was it typical rookie struggles, nagging injuries or simply the lack of an NFL skill set? While there’s certainly room for improvement in Year Two, the early signs from Sermon were far from promising.
What to Expect: 2022
You really can’t have expectations for Sermon heading into 2022. Elijah Mitchell is returning as the 49ers’ incumbent starter, and the team spent another third-round pick on a running back – Tyrion Davis-Price – in this year’s draft as well.
Expecting Sermon to claim the RB1 role in San Francisco would be wishful thinking. He should, however, have the opportunity to compete for the No. 2 role with Davis-Price, Jeff Wilson and a few other backs on the roster. Given what we saw from him as a rookie, though, even earning the top backup role would be a longshot for Sermon at this point. If he shows improvement and manages to earn that spot, though, it could prove valuable given the way Kyle Shanahan likes to rotate his running backs.
Dynasty Outlook
While Sermon isn’t an exciting option by any stretch of the imagination, he at least offers a small amount of value due to the offense he plays for. If the current owner has already soured on him and is willing to sell for pennies on the dollar, acquiring him for dirt cheap isn’t the worst idea in the world. Buying the dip is typically a good strategy in dynasty formats, but with no clear path to touches and not much to get excited about on tape, it’s more likely Sermon’s stock continues to dip before it trends upward.
