NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
Rookies get all the attention. They’re the flashy new piece that could be anything. And then a class of rookies comes through and they’re old news, replaced by the next flashy, new thing. But last year’s rookies aren’t gone, and in many cases, they’re going to be even better than the exciting new pieces that are just showing up.
Of course, sometimes they won’t be, and that matters too. So as we head toward training camp, preseason, and then the start of the 2022 NFL season, we’re taking a look at last year’s rookie class. What did we think about last year’s rookie class? What worked? What didn’t? And what’s the prognosis for them going forward?
Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
Pat Freiermuth was drafted with the 55th pick of the 2021 NFL Draft. Upon this selection, he joined a depth chart that already contained former top-10 pick, Eric Ebron, making it likely he would start the season as the backup tight end. Looking back, it was easy to see how Freiermuth could supplant Ebron if given the chance, as he earned the nickname Baby Gronk at Penn State. NFL.com’s combine report outlined that this 6-foot-5, 251-pound man was a former basketball player who displayed quality feet in space while being highly competitive with the ball in his hands – possessing a nasty stiff arm. This all helped create a great combination of size and agility that many top-tier tight ends require. On the flip side, he struggled to create separation at the top of routes, nor did he display enough acceleration to run away from defenders on crossing routes.
Ultimately, all of this helped him get drafted as the second tight end in many fantasy rookie drafts while carrying an ADP of pick 15 overall. However, in redraft leagues, he slipped down draft boards in large part due to the depth chart in Pittsburgh. This made many people believe it would be at least one year until Freiermuth had any fantasy relevance, resulting in an ADP of 166 overall.
What Went Right
Freiermuth led the Steelers with a 4.4% drop percentage and was second on the team with a 75% catch percentage among players who saw over 50 targets. On top of this, he was second on the team with 20 red-zone targets and converted seven of them for scores. He also finished third on the team with seven end-zone targets, but converted a team-leading four of them for scores. By doing this, he proved to be the team’s most reliable end-zone target. This led to a TE6 finish from Week 8 on, with 110.6 PPR points in that span. Ultimately, he would finish as TE14 with 140.4 PPR points. His final stat line included 497 receiving yards and seven touchdowns on 60 receptions.
What Went Wrong
The biggest issue with Freiermuth as a rookie was the lack of usage early on, as he only saw 13 targets in the first six weeks of the season. At this point, he was TE28 in PPR scoring and he only produced 100 yards and a score on those 11 receptions. It took an Eric Ebron injury to open up a path for Freiermuth to find his way to fantasy relevance. However, he never looked back. On top of this, he only saw an aDOt of 5.29 yards, which was the fourth lowest among 26 tight ends who saw at least 50 targets. This limited his upside, and he is not the best YAC creator in the league. He only created 4.3 yards after the catch per reception – the fifth worst among 26 tight ends who saw over 50 targets.
Prognosis Entering 2022
As we head into 2022, Freiermuth is likely a significant part of the Steelers offense, especially after the last half of 2021. Although the Steelers are transitioning from Ben Roethlisberger to Kenny Pickett or Mitch Trubisky, it’s likely the team still looks to pass a decent amount under offensive coordinator Matt Canada. Last season, they called a pass play at the second-highest rate in the NFL at 63%. Freiermuth should become a safety blanket for the quarterbacks, especially in the red zone, where he was dominant last season. Currently, he is being drafted at what is likely his floor at TE13, and he carries the upside of a top-10 tight end – as long as the Steelers offense is productive.
As far as a dynasty asset, Freiermuth is a safe pick in startups as a mid- or late-round target. Although he may never produce a season-long top-5 finish, he’ll likely be a consistent top-10 finisher for the majority of his career. Freiermuth is a player you can just plug into your lineup and not have to worry about. This is a great advantage to have at the tight end position, as many teams in your league won’t have this and will have to sift through the waiver wire each week wasting their FAAB.
