NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/14)
Alex Christenson
We resume the 2022 MLB season with about 45 percent to go – plenty of time to make moves in your league standings and do some damage. There will certainly be plenty of first-half studs who continue their success and others who slow down or get outright injured. At the same time, we should expect plenty of surprises as well. Here is the second of two All-Star break articles featuring my second-half predictions by team. It’s part serious, part spoof, and I’m certain you’ll be able to figure out which is which.
NL East
Atlanta Braves
The National League’s most powerful offense continues to mash, finishing with 30 more dingers than the next-best NL squad (Brewers or Dodgers). Austin Riley continues his second-level breakout and will be one of just five hitters with at least 40 longballs. Matt Olson finishes with 33, while Dansby Swanson falls just short of the 30-homer mark despite ending 2022 as a top-25 bat. Ronald Acuña Jr. hits another 15 after the break along with 18 more swipes to give him 23/38 at season’s end. Spencer Strider sputters a bit down the stretch, and there will be at least one phantom IL stint for their ace, Max Fried. Nevertheless, Fried finishes as the NL wins leader (18), barely edging out teammate Kyle Wright, the Giants’ Logan Webb and the Dodgers’ Tyler Anderson. The Braves edge out the Mets by two games to win the division and make it to the NLCS.
New York Mets
Jacob deGrom returns to the rotation after the break and whiffs eight Padres in 4.1 innings. He remains healthy and dominant down the stretch, rewarding fantasy managers who invested. The world’s best rotation is co-anchored by Max Scherzer, who brings his 2.22 ERA down to 2.02. Closer Edwin Díaz finishes as the only NL closer with an ERA under 2.00 and leads all closers in saves from the All-Star break on (17). Pete Alonso is one of the few with 40+ homers, while Starling Marte ends the year as the only Met with 20+ stolen bases (Francisco Lindor falls just short). The Mets fail an attempt to land Juan Soto, not wanting to give up the right mix of prospects the Nationals want, but end up trading for Willson Contreras, who becomes a Big Apple favorite as the team’s #5 hitter.
Philadelphia Phillies
Bryce Harper returns in the last week of August, but it’s too little, too late, as the Phillies can’t gain enough steam to catch the Braves and Mets. Kyle Schwarber wins the NL home run crown with 47 and raises his average up to a 2022-respectable .232. Rookie masher Darick Hall struggles after the break and gets optioned back down to Triple-A in mid-August. Nick Castellanos fails to hit 20 homers for the first time since 2016 (2020 excluded) but continues to hit timely dingers that happen to perfectly correlate with major national news. Second-half 2022 Ranger Suárez channels his second-half 2021 Ranger Suárez and draws the easiest set of matchups in human history facing depleted rosters of the Pirates, Nationals, Cubs, Reds and Marlins. He pitches well enough for everyone to forget just how awful his first half was and to bring his ADP back to respectability (low-200s). Sir Anthony Hopkins randomly shows up to J.T. Realmuto Back-to-School Cooler Bag Night (presented by Fante’s Plumbing, Heating & Air) on the last Sunday of August and bonds with reliever Seranthony Domínguez. Dominguez is invigorated and doesn’t allow a single run or walk in September.
Miami Marlins
Jon Berti returns to the Marlins on Monday, August 1 but is never the same. He swipes 12 more bags in the final two months and is caught stealing six times. Garrett Cooper, Avisaíl García, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jesús Sánchez share another 10 IL stints between the group, while Jorge Soler explodes in the month of August – one of just five hitters with at least 10 homers next month. Jerar Encarnación puts on a fireworks display of his own, hitting .332 with 7 HR in September. Trevor Rogers never recovers and ends up losing his rotation spot in late-August. Max Meyer has another couple of rough outings but turns it around with seven scoreless innings at home against the Reds in early August. Braxton Garrett holds his rotation spot all season and cracks the top-300 ADP next season. Sandy Alcantara slows down the stretch just a tad but becomes just the third starting pitcher with 220+ innings since 2016 (Justin Verlander 2019, Max Scherzer 2018 being the others). Alcantara loses the NL Cy Young to an unstoppable Corbin Burnes.
Washington Nationals
Despite all the rumors swirling, the Nats don’t trade Juan Soto before the trade deadline, though the San Francisco Giants end up making a trade for him in the offseason. The deal includes Patrick Corbin, who becomes the first pitcher ever traded to San Francisco whose numbers do not improve upon arrival. The Nationals finish with the worst record in the National League, but Soto pads his stats, raising his .250 average up to .289. He ends the season with 36 homers and beats out Paul Goldschmidt and Luis Arraez for the league’s best on-base percentage (.413).
NL Central
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers make the playoffs and keep the NL Central race tight but lose the division by 1.5 games to the Cardinals. Corbin Burnes turns up the heat after the break with an 8-1 record over 14 starts with 117 punchouts in those 86 innings, winning the NL Cy Young award. Brandon Woodruff maintains his 30% strikeout rate from the last 3.5 seasons and finishes strong. Eric Lauer ends up with 180 strikeouts and a 3.69 ERA despite leading the majors in homers allowed. Christian Yelich hits the IL for his chronic back issues once more and falls well short of scoring 100 runs. No one on the Brewers finishes with more than 100 RBI, but Rowdy Tellez and Willy Adames finish in the 90-range (Adames overtakes Tellez for the team lead).
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals get it done in the NL Central by sharpening up their rotation with two key trades – Frankie Montas from the A’s and Blake Snell from the Padres. The Padres aren’t quite in sell mode but feel confident enough with their rotation depth and need to ease the books a bit, as they’re right up against the $230M Competitive Balance Tax threshold. Both Montas and Snell fit right in and combine for a 2.83 ERA and a 29% strikeout rate over 23 combined starts. Paul Goldschmidt finishes the season with a .316 average, 36 homers and 123 RBI – the No. 1 first baseman in fantasy – earning him a second-round ADP for 2023 drafts. Tyler O’Neill finishes with a strikeout rate over 30% for the second consecutive season but leads the club in dingers after the break (16). Oh, and the Cardinals break the heart of AL-only leaguers by trading for Blue Jays’ Danny Jansen on August 1.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates hold onto Bryan Reynolds and all their prospects at the trade deadline but deal David Bednar, Wil Crowe, José Quintana and Daniel Vogelbach (Vogey to the Rays, go figure!). Mitch Keller’s in-season adjustments translate into a strong and tantalizing second half. He’s featured on all the 2023 preseason breakout articles, but every single one of them with the caveat “once he gets traded away from the Pirates.” Diego Castillo hits another 10 homers after the break and finishes the season at the Mendoza Line. Ke’Bryan Hayes (4 HR at the break) hits nine after the break and brings his .250 average up to .281. Jack Suwinski gets called back up in mid-August and has a pair of 2-HR games in September (once in Cincinnati and the other time at home against the Cubs – the second bomb off shortstop Andrelton Simmons).
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs deal Willson Contreras to the Mets one week before the deadline, setting off a barrage of trades in what’s one of the most memorable trade deadlines in recent memory. Both David Robertson and Rowan Wick are dealt, leaving Mychal Givens as the primary ninth-inning option. Nico Hoerner completes his breakout season with 14 swipes, nine homers and a .305 average despite subpar R/RBI. Frank Schwindel has a near repeat of his amazing 2021 second half (13 HR – 40 RBI – 42 R – .342) but with a .303 average, 10 homers and lighter counting categories. Nick Madrigal returns the first week of August, hits .299 with no homers over a three-week span, re-injures his groin and gets shipped back to the White Sox in the offseason.
Cincinnati Reds
Joey Votto continues to struggle and finishes with a .232 average (up 16 points on current). He announces his retirement a week before the season ends then gets the itch again in December, a la Tom Brady. Much ado about nothing, as Votto ultimately decides to hang up his cleats after grabbing headlines for two weeks. Mike Moustakas joins him in retirement, but that one’s forced since no team is dumb enough to sign him. The Tylers (Tyler Naquin, Tyler Stephenson) provide reasonable fantasy production for the remainder of the season. The ups and downs (mostly downs) of Jake Fraley come full circle, as he steals four bases in the first week of September and forces fantasy managers chasing stolen bases to spend the rest of their FAAB on him. Fraley steals just two more bases in the final three weeks of the season. Luis Castillo joins the Dodgers, and Tyler Mahle gets traded to the Braves.
NL West
San Diego Padres
Fernando Tatis Jr. finally makes his 2022 debut on August 18 against Juan Soto and the Nationals. He struggles for the first week but gets his mojo back in Kansas City with two solo shots off Daniel Lynch. He pulls a 2022 Acuna Jr. and just steals a lot of bases instead of hitting a bunch of homers, which screws up everyone’s projections for 2023. Manny Machado still leads the team in all offensive categories, but his end-of-season average finally dips down below .300. Luke Voit goes on an offensive tear and hits 19 homers after the break. In the offseason, he breaks his hand in a bar fight in Downtown San Diego’s Gaslamp district (but you should see the other guy). Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove both finish with WHIP’s under 1.00 and 180-plus strikeouts. It will have felt like Jorge Alfaro hit 30 bombs over the course of the season, but he’ll end up with just 11.
San Francisco Giants
Brandon Belt continues his personal mission of driving fantasy managers insane by hitting four homers in a weekend series when we bench him, and going on the IL to get his knee drained again when we put him in our lineups. Yes, I will draft him again next year at whatever his ADP is. Thairo Estrada is the guy whose stat line we all look at in the offseason and wonder how the hell that happened. Estrada will quietly score 80 runs with 15 homers and 20 steals. Joc Pederson reaches 30 homers for the second time in his career, and Mike Yastrzemski scores 50 more runs and hits .290 from this point on. No one on the team will reach 100 RBI for the 10th consecutive season (last one to do it was Buster Posey, 103 in 2012). The Alex Cobb positive regression train rolls through every station, all aboard!
Colorado Rockies
The only real positive is the team having four players flirting with a .300 average (C.J. Cron, Kris Bryant, José Iglesias, Yonathan Daza), but Daza will end up as the only guy on the right side of the number. Speaking of flirting, Cron comes close to hitting 40 bombs but is lost in the first base ADP shuffle next season with so much depth at the position. Sam Hilliard and Garrett Hampson prove to be completely worthless late-round picks for what will now be the fourth season in a row. Brendan Rodgers ends up with a nice fantasy season, though he still hasn’t even attempted to steal even one base in his entire career despite promising beat writers 20 swipes in spring training last year. Germán Márquez finally finds freedom in another home park this offseason. Early drafters one-up one another in NFBC Draft Champions all winter, pushing his ADP up right next to Jon Gray.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks have a fire sale, dumping Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, David Peralta, Joe Mantiply, Madison Bumgarner and Merrill Kelly. GM Mike Hazen tries to sneak Mark Melancon and Luke Weaver into every deal, but the other GMs aren’t having it. Quote-unquote Lefty Masher Jordan Luplow crushes another seven bombs against southpaws, tying Aaron Judge and Austin Riley for most homers against them this season. The Dbacks end the season losing 20 of their final 23 games, but prospect Corbin Carroll hits .340 with six homers and five swipes in the final month of the season.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Trea Turner earns first-round value for what feels like the 12th season in a row and becomes the first player in history with an ADP of 1 to actually end up as the top overall fantasy player. Turner drives in 110 runs after never posting a season of 73 RBI prior. All projection systems will have him slated for more RBI than runs in 2023, but he flips the script on us next season by earning more runs than RBI, that sneaky bastard. My not-so-bold prediction of Will Smith being the C1 comes to fruition, though my preseason projection for him (30 HR – 96 RBI – 79 R – .277) falls short (ends with 27 HR – 90 RBI – 72 R – .275). On the flip side, Cody Bellinger ends up embarrassing me by hitting .222 but keeps my roto reputation intact by going 20/20 (22 HR, 22 SB). Tyler Anderson hangs with Tony Gonsolin the rest of this season, and Anderson shockingly ends up leading the team in wins. Andrew Heaney gets blasted in his first start off the IL and goes right back on. Clayton Kershaw remains vintage and delivers a giant bowl of redemption in the NLCS. Craig Kimbrel gives up a walk-off two-run shot to Gleyber Torres in Game 7 of the World Series. The irony of it all is that Torres was Kimbrel’s last out in the 2018 ALDS when the Red Sox knocked out the Yankees and went on to win the World Series.
