NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/14)
Alex Christenson
We resume the 2022 MLB season with about 45 percent to go – plenty of time to make moves in your league standings and do some damage. There will certainly be plenty of first-half studs who continue their success and others who slow down or get outright injured. At the same time, we should also expect plenty of surprises. Here is the first of two All-Star break articles featuring my second-half predictions by team. It’s part serious, part spoof, and I’m certain you’ll be able to figure out which is which.
AL East
New York Yankees
Aaron Judge finishes the season with 51 homers (most in majors) but falls to Shohei Ohtani in the AL MVP Award ballot. Giancarlo Stanton and Josh Donaldson go on home run binges. Stanton hits 18 more to end the season with 42, Donaldson hits 16 and ends with 25. Clay Holmes is the closer for the remainder of the season, though they add David Bednar and another arm to the rotation before the trade deadline. The Yankees lead the league in team homers, run away with the division but fall just short of the 110-win mark (the most wins in MLB this season).
Boston Red Sox
Rafael Devers finishes the season with 39 HR, 110 RBI and a .318 average and will be considered one of the safer ‘floor’ picks in the back-half of the first round of 2023 fantasy drafts. Trevor Story returns from the IL after a minimum stay but continues to struggle offensively. He ends the season with a strikeout rate over 30% and sub-.250 average for the first time since 2017. The ‘I told you so’ analysts will be in full force next draft season, leading the market to drop him to a reasonable fifth-round ADP. The Beantown Boys and Story truthers will continue to draft him regardless and end up getting a great deal on his bounce-back 2023 season. It’s just not the same Story we saw in Colorado. The Red Sox become ‘sellers’ right before the trade deadline. They deal J.D. Martinez but are unable to get a deal done for Xander Bogaerts. Nick Pivetta will continue to crush your ratios when you start him and twirl legendary gems when you sit him.
Tampa Bay Rays
Despite a late-season push by Gerrit Cole, Shane McClanahan continues to dominate and wins the AL Cy Young award. He earns an ADP of 9.8 next season, which he ends up not earning (but still finishes as a top-10 arm in 2023). Randy Arozarena quietly finishes the season with 24 HR and 34 SB along with a .245 average and earns a third-round ADP next draft season. Josh Lowe continues to strike out at a 33% clip but gets his average up over .230 (.197 now) and hits 14 bombs after the All-Star break. Scandal hits the fantasy community when it’s discovered that manager Kevin Cash is an avid fantasy baseball manager and won a high-stakes league by one save on the last day (under the username Mervin Dinero). “Mervin” sneakily and perfectly streamed Jason Adam, Brooks Raley and Colin Poche all season, picking them up off waivers the day they converted saves. It was later discovered that Cash was behind the injuries to Nick Anderson and Andrew Kittredge. Cash never manages another game in the majors. Understandably, he was kicked out of his fantasy league as well.
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles magically finish ahead of the Red Sox in the AL East on the heels of a phenomenal second half by Adley Rutschman, Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins and regular-season team home run leader, Ryan Mountcastle (27). The O’s will be the only team with two hitters swiping more than 30 bags (Mullins – 32, Jorge Mateo – 31) in 2022. Rutschman earns a top-120 ADP by NFBC drafters, behind only Will Smith, Alejandro Kirk and Willson Contreras at the catcher position. Jorge López locks down 32 saves, finishing the season with an ERA under 2.50 and WHIP under 1.00. Though Tyler Wells and Dean Kremer hit some bumps along the way in the second half, they finish respectably enough to restore confidence in Baltimore pitching. The days of the 46th round Orioles’ starter freely available in NFBC DCs are officially over.
Toronto Blue Jays
The winner of ‘most valuable Blue Jays SP’ debate among Kevin Gausman, Alek Manoah and José Berríos easily goes to Manoah, who finishes top five in AL Cy Young voting. Berrios gets his league-worst ERA (5.38) down to a respectable 4.40 while also racking up three more double-digit strikeout performances. The heart of the offense goes on a tear, as both Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette bring their batting averages up over .285. Despite finishing the season top 10 in homers (39) and RBI (111), Guerrero does not earn first-round fantasy value, prompting a faction of the Twitter community to remind us on the daily, next winter, that yOu NeEd sTeAlS iN ThE FiRsT rOuNd.
AL Central
Minnesota Twins
The Twins beat the White Sox on the final day of the regular season, but it’s the Cleveland Guardians who end up winning the division in what ends up as the closest race in baseball. Despite adding both Madison Bumgarner and Merrill Kelly in a blockbuster deal with the Diamondbacks two days before the trade deadline, the Twins just don’t have enough pitching prowess to get out of the AL Wild Card round. The closer situation gets some clarity when the team trades for David Robertson, which allows manager Rocco Baldelli to more comfortably use his best arm (Jhoan Duran) in high-leverage seventh and eighth innings. Byron Buxton hits the IL for 10 days in August but is back after the minimum. Miguel Sanó cranks out 10 bombs over a two-week span in late-August, but then hits .130 over the month of September. Luis Arraez becomes the 15th hitter since 2000 to hit .355 or higher in a season (which reminds me that Magglio Ordonez hit .363 in 2007!).
<img src="https://d2y4ihze0bzr5g.cloudfront.net/source/2020/Byron_Buxton.jpg" alt="Cleveland Guardians
The most surprising division winner gets it done with wit and grit, yet ironically without Nick Wittgren, who found himself packing from a second consecutive roster after the Cardinals gave him his release last week. José Ramírez continues his torrid pace, leading the league in RBI (127) to go along with 39 homers and a .283 average. Jo-Ram scores some well-deserved MVP votes. No one on the team ends up swiping 30 bags, but Ramirez (25) and Myles Straw (24) come the closest. Nolan Jones turns out to be a godsend, as regression is delayed until his sophomore campaign. The Guardians add Joe Jiménez from the Tigers to help Emmanuel Clase and company in the bullpen. Despite some issues with the longball, Triston McKenzie steps up over the final couple of months to increase his fantasy value and respect in the fantasy baseball community (ADP 124.7 next draft season).
Chicago White Sox
The team will continue to get hit with brutal injuries to key players – a curse that won’t dissolve until the team rids themselves of one Tony La Russa. Tim Anderson hits .360 the rest of the way to give Arraez a run for his money, while José Abreu, Luis Robert and Andrew Vaughn all hover around the .300 mark come season’s end. Yasmani Grandal provides some fantasy value by getting on base at a 17% clip and hitting 12 homers. But the team finds a way to keep the surging bat of back-up catcher Seby Zavala in the lineup (occasionally DH’ing). Dylan Cease leads the AL in strikeouts by a hair as he, McClanahan and Cole end up with 240-plus.
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers help out teams in their division (along with teams in the NL) by trading away all their relievers – namely, Gregory Soto, Andrew Chafin and Joe Jiménez. Michael Pineda re-injures himself, Eduardo Rodriguez never answers management’s phone calls, so behind Tarik Skubal is a putrid MASH unit for us to stream hitters against rest-of-season (Elvin Rodriguez, Beau Brieske, Tyler Alexander, the ghost of Drew Hutchison). Rodriguez and Austin Meadows are finally found in late-September playing MLB The Show in a hotel suite in Toledo blaming bad service and a slow internet connection.
Kansas City Royals
It takes him a while, but Vinnie Pasquantino finally gets his groove and goes on a massive home run tear. Those who dropped Edward Olivares before the Whit Merrifield and Andrew Benintendi trades will be crying in their bowls of gluten-free Cap’n Crunch as Olivares does his part to help lead fantasy managers to league championships (the 2023 Main Event overall winner will have Olivares). Bobby Witt Jr. loses the AL Rookie of the Year award to Julio Rodríguez despite an incredible stat line (25 HR – 86 RBI – 89 R – 29 SB – .269). Nick Pratto is never called back up because President of Baseball Operations Dayton Moore’s personal affinity towards Ryan O’Hearn. We later find out O’Hearn had been cheating on girlfriend Hannah Moreland with one of Moore’s daughters (won’t be clear which one), and Dayton has always considered Ryan to be family. Ryan returns to the majors in 2024 (in Colorado) under his new legal name (Ryan O’Moore). Ironically, the same year Dalton is named President of the Rockies.
AL West
Houston Astros
Yordan Alvarez has a slow start after the All-Star break but gets himself back into gear to give Aaron Judge a run for his money for the AL home run crown. He finishes the season with 47 (four shy of Judge) while also topping 100 runs, 100 RBI and hitting .300 on the dot. Those same industry analysts poo-pooing Vladdy G will pop in around Christmas-time to ruin the holidays by telling you Lord Yordong isn’t worth a first-round pick because he doesn’t steal bases. Ignore them and keep drafting the Yordonginator. Alex Bregman will continue to tease with random 3-for-4, 2-HR games before going on 0-for-17 stretches. Everyone will remind us that his 41-HR season in 2019 was an outlier boosted by the ‘happy fun ball’. Just nod and move on. The Astros take the division down with 99 wins and really turn on the jets in the playoffs. They’ll square off with the Yankees in the ALCS, but my crystal ball doesn’t yet show me who’ll win.
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners enjoy another hot couple of stretches to scare the bejeezus out of Astros’ fans but ultimately fall seven games short of the division. Julio Rodríguez wins the AL ROY in a landslide with a phenomenal roto line of 30 HR – 100 RBI – 106 R – 36 SB – .284 while knocking another four points off his 27% strikeout rate. There will be a line of analysts waiting at the ADP door to declare J-Rod as the guy to draft first overall in 2023 drafts. Surprising rookie Cal Raleigh becomes the first Mariners backstop to reach 20 dingers since Omar Narváez (22) in 2019 – a feat Mike Zunino accomplished three times over the last six seasons. Robbie Ray continues to rack up the punchouts and finishes with over 230 of them for the third consecutive full season (excluding 2020’s shortened season). Logan Gilbert (2.94 ERA) doesn’t finish under 3.00, but we’re still going to officially call this a breakout. He’ll end up with the best record in his rotation (16-6).
Texas Rangers
In true Donnie Ecker style, the Rangers will end up with as many 15+ home runs guys (seven) as Donnie’s guys had when he was with the San Francisco Giants last season. Corey Seager ends as the front-runner with his 38 dingers, Adolis García and Marcus Semien finish with 25 apiece and the trio of Jonah Heim, Kole Calhoun and Nathaniel Lowe all hover around 20. For the love of roto, please stop doubting Donnie Ecker. Jon Gray won’t quite get to the 200-strikeout mark this season, but he’ll have clearly established himself as the team’s ace with Martín Pérez not far behind. José Leclerc will snag the team’s last two save opportunities in early October, and a few of us will once again get suckered into ‘LeClerc could be the closer’ at whatever his ADP ends up being.
Los Angeles Angels
Despite very clearly being sellers, owner Arte Moreno and the Angels won’t “publicly” listen to any Mike Trout or Shohei Ohtani trade rumors as the two remain in Orange County at least through the end of the season. A different story for Noah Syndergaard, who finds himself in a playoff race in the AL Central come August 2. Reid Detmers turns up the heat and flirts with another no-hitter against the Tigers in early September. A rare and random Harold Castro solo shot puts an end to those hopes in the top of that game’s ninth inning. Jo Adell sticks with the team for the remainder of the season, hitting 11 homers and stealing nine bases despite ending the year with a .233 average. It would be enough for at least three-dozen “Could This Be The Year?” articles during the winter.
Oakland Athletics
The league’s biggest joke of a franchise will rid themselves of any and everybody they can. Frankie Montas (once confirmed healthy again) lands with the Cardinals, as the Dodgers put their eggs in the Dustin May basket. Sean Murphy to the Mets makes sense if they can’t get Willson Contreras. No one is safe, as even Ramón Laureano gets dealt somewhere random like Milwaukee. September A’s lineups will be quite the shite-show featuring Jonah Bride, Vimael Machín, Nick Allen, Mickey McDonald, Kevin Smith and a 70-year-old Stephen Vogt.
See you tomorrow for part II of the series featuring predictions for all 15 National League teams.
