NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Gardner MinshewPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Panthers vs. Colts
Right now, Gardner Minshew’s passing yards prop is set at 230.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 230.5 (-120) after it opened @ 230.5 (-115).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts to run the most total plays on the slate this week with 66.7 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The 8th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a colossal 61.9 per game on average).
- The Colts O-line grades out as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board.
- Gardner Minshew’s 64.7% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a substantial growth in his throwing accuracy over last season’s 58.0% rate.
- The Panthers defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.97 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 4th-most in the league.
Cons
- The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts offensive gameplan to tilt 1.0% more towards the ground game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with head coach Shane Steichen now calling the plays.
- The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts as the 5th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 55.3% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the NFL.
- This year, the stout Panthers defense has conceded a meager 191.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing teams: the 2nd-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
239
Passing Yards
239
Passing Yards
