Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
The FTN Fantasy Splits Tool rolls into the postseason, where I’ll be looking at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams/players in the past, projecting their outlook in the playoffs. Most of the content will be centered around injuries, thanks to our new partnership with Dr. David Chao and Sports Injury Central. For those of you unfamiliar with the website, it’s a one-stop shop to keep fans, gamblers and fantasy players up to date on the latest injuries, covering all major sports such as the NFL, CFB, NBA and MLB.
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Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens
Ravens -9.5, O/U 43.5
Texans
C.J. Stroud balled out in his playoff debut, completing 76.2% of his passes for 274 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions against Cleveland’s second-ranked defense in DVOA against the pass. Nico Collins scored the first touchdown of the day, leading the Texans with a 33% target share, catching 6 of 7 passes for 96 yards. Since returning from a calf injury in Week 11, Collins has taken his game to another level, averaging 8.1 targets, 6.6 receptions, and 106.3 receiving yards with Stroud under center.
Up next, Collins faces a Ravens defense that finished as the best team in DVOA against the pass (-28%), but outside the top 10 against WR1s (12th, -10.6%), allowing the fourth-most receptions per game to the position (9.2). With Noah Brown joining Tank Dell on injured reserve, Collins should continue to see massive volume in what projects to be a trailing gamescript.
Ravens
After a week of rest, the Ravens are getting back toward full strength coming out of the bye. We thought they might even get Mark Andrews back in the lineup, this week, which would have “likely” relegated Isaiah Likely to the bench outside of 12 personnel. Excluding Week 11, when Andrews exited after the first drive, Likely never once topped a 35% snap share with both tight ends available, averaging just 17 yards per game.
Fortunately for Likely, it appears Andrews isn’t quite ready to return yet, officially listed as doubtful for the Divisional Round. That means Likely should receive a full complement of snaps this weekend against a Texans defense that just gave up 92 yards to David Njoku. In the regular season, the Texans allowed the second-most receptions (5.9) and fifth-most receiving yards (57.2) per game to opposing tight ends.
Assuming Andrews gets a full complement of snaps, without limitation, he’s set up to smash against Texans who gave up 92 yards to David Njoku last week, allowing the second-most receptions (5.9) and fifth-most receiving yards (57.2) per game in the regular season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions
Lions -6.5, O/U 48.5
Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers have been one of the better stories in the NFL, winning the NFC South and advancing into the Divisional Round in their first year without Tom Brady. Despite entering the game with a questionable tag, Mayfield showed no signs of any limitations, completing 22 out of 34 dropbacks for 337 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Since Week 15, Mayfield has thrown for over 280 yards and multiple scores in four out of his last five games, averaging 289.4 yards and 2.2 touchdowns through the air.
He’s set up for another eruption spot in Detroit, facing a Lions secondary that Mathew Stafford shredded for 367 passing yards and two passing touchdowns last week, entering the postseason allowing the fourth most passing yards (268.4) and sixth most passing touchdowns (1.65) per game to opposing signal callers.
Lions
Jared Goff finally got his revenge against LA, leading Detroit to their first playoff win since 1992. Amon-Ra St. Brown continued to dominate, leading the team with 110 receiving yards, topping the century mark for the tenth time this season. Not far behind St. Brown was Josh Reynolds, who was also playing in #RevengeGame, recording 80 receiving yards for the first time since Week 1. With Kalif Raymond out or limited the last two weeks, Reynolds has set season-high marks in snap share and route participation rate in back-to-back weeks, averaging 7 targets, 5 receptions and 62 receiving yards per game.
Raymond has yet to return to practice, which bodes well for Reynolds who should continue to operate as a near every down player, facing a Buccaneers defense that had allowed the eighth-most receptions (13.2) and fourth-most receiving yards (178.6) per game to opposing wide receivers in the regular season.
Divisional Round Best Bets
Nico Collins Over 5.5 Receptions
(-145, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Nico Collins posted a 90%-plus route participation rate (91%) for just the second time in his playoff debut, catching six of seven passes for 96 yards and a touchdown, despite facing a Browns defense ranked second overall in DVOA against the pass (-20.1%) and first against WR1s (-46.1%). Since returning from a calf injury in Week 11, Collins has taken his game to another level, averaging 8.1 targets, 6.6 receptions and 106.3 receiving yards with C.J. Stroud under center. He’s caught at least six balls in seven out of his last eight games with Stroud, earning a target on 34% of his routes over the last three weeks. Up next, Collins faces a Ravens defense that finished as the best team in DVOA against the pass (-28%), but outside the top 10 against WR1s (12th, -10.6%), allowing the fourth most receptions per game to the position (9.2). The last time Collins faced Baltimore, he was targeted 11 times, catching 6 passes for 80 yards, way back in Week 1.
Devin Singletary Over 2.5 Receptions
(-136, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Devin Singletary has had a significant role as a pass catcher over the last two weeks, running a route on over 60% of C.J. Stroud’s dropbacks in back-to-back games. He topped that mark just once in his first 15 games, losing snaps on passing downs to a combination of Dameon Pierce and Dare Ogunbowale. Since Week 15, Pierce has taken full control of the backfield, playing on nearly 70% of the Texans’ offensive snaps (68%), and catching three or more passes in four out of his last five games. Up next, Singletary faces a Ravens defense that was one of nine teams to allow over 85 grabs (86) to opposing running backs in the regular season, ceding 5.1 receptions per game to the position.
Josh Reynolds Over 37.5 Receiving Yards
(-114, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Josh Reynolds has set season-high marks in route participation rate in back-to-back games, averaging 62 receiving yards with Kalif Raymond out or limited the last two weeks. His 25% target share during that span trails only Amon Ra St. Brown (32%) for second on the team, catching five of seven passes for over 44-plus yards in each of his last two games. Raymond has yet to return to practice which means Reynolds should continue to operate as a full-time payer, facing a Buccaneers defense that ended the regular season allowing the fifth most receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers (178.6). Reynolds caught three balls for 50 yards in his last meeting with Tampa despite losing a handful of snaps to a combination of Raymond and Marvin Jones in Week 6.
Isiah Pacheco Over 14.5 Rush Attempts
(-120, Bet365)
Isiah Pacheco is coming off a career-high 24 rush attempts, handling 16-plus carries in five out of his last six healthy games. Since Week 3, Pacheco has cleared his 14.5 carry prop in 10 out of 11 games, excluding Week 16 when he exited early with a concussion. Up next, Pacheco faces a Bills defense that ended the regular season 17th in DVOA against the rush (-8.7%), allowing 18.5 carries to opposing backfields. Even in a blowout loss, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren combined for 20 carries against Buffalo, despite trailing by 21 points in the second quarter.
