Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
The FTN Fantasy Splits Tool rolls into the postseason where I’ll be looking at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams/players in the past, projecting their outlook in the playoffs. Most of the content will be centered around injuries, thanks to our new partnership with Dr. David Chao and Sports Injury Central. For those of you unfamiliar with the website, it’s a one-stop shop to keep fans, gamblers and fantasy players up to date on the latest injuries, covering all major sports such as the NFL, CFB, NBA and MLB.
SIC have a new feature – The Injury Edge – Your NFL Matchup Cheat Sheet.
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Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs -4.5, O/U 44
Dolphins
The Dolphins are limping into the playoffs, losing both games without Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert and plummeting down the standings. They’ve struggled to move the ball through the air, but haven’t lost a beat on the ground, riding their superstar rookie running back. Without Mostert, De’Von Achane has handled double-digit carries in back-to-back games, averaging nearly 100 yards from scrimmage (99) over the last two weeks.
He’s unlikely to command the same volume if Mostert suits up, but Achane has a favorable matchup against a Chiefs defense ranked bottom six in DVOA against the rush (27th). Achane only needs a handful of touches to break the game open, setting a new single-season high in yards per carry (7.8) among all players with at least 100 rush attempts in the Super Bowl era. Like Mostert, Waddle has also been limited in practice and is currently listed as questionable.
Chiefs
The Chiefs enter the postseason ranked outside the top two seeds for the first time since 2018, when Patrick Mahomes took over as the starter. They haven’t been the same juggernaut as years past, but still have the upper hand against a beaten-up Dolphins team they defeated earlier this season overseas. The 4.5 spread suggests Kansas City should take care of business at home, where they’ve won 10 out of a possible 12 playoff games with Mahomes under center. Unfortunately, they’ll be without Jerick McKinnon, who was ruled out for the rest of the postseason after undergoing core muscle surgery but may be getting back Kadarius Toney as soon as this week, who has been a limited participant in practice, currently listed as questionable.
Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys -7.5, O/U 50.5
Packers
The Packers couldn’t have asked for a better start in their first season without Aaron Rodgers, already making the playoffs in year one. They’re the youngest team to make the postseason since 1978 but have received significant contributions from the veterans down the stretch, especially Aaron Jones who has finally started to look healthy. With AJ Dillon out or limited to sub-20% snap share, Jones has been dominant, averaging over 20 touches per game (21.8) for 118.8 combined rushing and receiving yards.
Dillon is currently listed as questionable but has not returned to practice, still dealing with a finger and neck injury. Christian Watson is also listed as questionable but seems to be ahead of Dillon, taking limited reps in practice.
Cowboys
No team has been more dominant at home than the Cowboys who have won 16 consecutive games at AT&T Stadium, where they’ll host the first round of the playoffs. Dak Prescot has been exceptional all season, but significantly better at home, averaging over 300 passing yards (300.8) and 2.9 touchdowns per game.
He’s set up for another big day through the air, facing a Packers defense ranked 26th in DVOA against the pass.
Super Wild Card Weekend Best Bets
Isiah Pacheco Over 59.5 Rushing Yards
(-110, Bet365)
The last time Isiah Pacheco was on the field, he set a career-high in rushing yards, handling 18 carries for 130 yards, posting a 90%-plus snap share (92%) and/or rush share (90%) for the first time. He’s rushed for over 65 yards in four out of his last five healthy games, dating back to Week 9 against Miami. As 4.5 favorites at home, Pacheco is set up for another big day on the ground.
Najee Harris Under 74.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards
(-115, Bet365)
Najee Harris has thrived in positive gamescripts, recording over 75 yards from scrimmage in each of his last three games, all Steelers wins. However, Harris has been outsnapped by Jaylen Warren in three out of the last four games, playing more than 52% of the team’s offensive snaps just once. As double-digit dogs at home (+10.5), the game sets up more favorably for Warren, who has handled 91% of the snaps on long down-and-distance situations since Week 15, with nearly a 100% snap share (99%) in the hurry-up/two-minute offense. Harris has exceeded his 74.5 rushing and receiving line in eight of 17 games this season, but just twice in a loss.
Puka Nacua Over 5.5 Receptions
(-130, Bet365)
Puka Nacua has a team-high 29.84% target share with Matthew Stafford under center, averaging 9.73 targets and 6.5 receptions per game. One week after setting the single-season rookie record in receptions (105) and recording yards (1,486), Nacua faces a Lions secondary with the fourth-worst PFF coverage grade (59.3), allowing the seventh most receptions (13.4) and third-most receiving yards (181.2) to opposing wide receivers.
Mike Evans Over 4.5 Receptions
(-140, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Mike Evans has caught more than four passes just once in his last five games, out-targeted 45-33 by Chris Godwin during that span. If there was ever a time for Evans to get back on track, though, it would be in this upcoming matchup against the Eagles who rank bottom four in DVOA against the pass (29th), allowing a league-high in targets (15.1) and receptions (15.1) to opposing wide receivers. Despite his recent slump, Evans still finished the season with a team-high 25% target share, averaging eight targets per game.
