49ers Stars Lead 2023 DYAR Stats

When it comes to offense in the National Football League, 2023 was the season of the San Francisco 49ers.

In our annual countdown of the best and worst players of the year by FTN’s advanced DYAR and DVOA metrics, 49ers players top the lists at every position. That’s fitting since the 49ers had the ninth-best offense ever measured by DVOA since 1981. In DYAR, Brock Purdy led all quarterbacks, Christian McCaffrey led all running backs, and George Kittle led all tight ends. The 49ers did not have the top wide receiver in DYAR (total value) but Brandon Aiyuk was third and set a record for the highest wide receiver DVOA (value per play).

Remember that all these player stats can be found here for 2023, and subscribers can download a workbook with all the numbers back to 1981 from the Historical DVOA Archive.

For the sake of simplicity, I’m ignoring any pass receptions by quarterbacks or passes by non-quarterbacks in the numbers below.

Quarterbacks

For quarterbacks, I’m using a total that is adjusted to make rush DYAR 2.1x the value of pass DYAR, which reflects the fact that quarterback rushes are particularly efficient plays by Expected Points Added analysis and 1 DYAR rushing is worth about 2.1 DYAR passing.

We’re an interesting place in the NFL now, where you really have two groups of quarterbacks. You have the guys who seem to be helped along by scheme and teammates, but scouting folks don’t feel they are among the top quarterbacks in the league. Brock Purdy leads that group, along with Jared Goff and Tua Tagovailoa.  Then you have the group of quarterbacks who seem to do it on their own and lift up their teammates, the scouting favorites. That group includes Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, and Lamar Jackson.

I suppose Matthew Stafford is in both groups. He straddles the line.

For a while this year, it looked like Purdy was going to challenge the 50% passing DVOA stratosphere. Only four seasons have ever made it over 50% with at least 200 pass attempts: Dan Marino in 1984, Peyton Manning in 2004 and 2006, and Tom Brady in 2007. Then the Baltimore game happened. Purdy finishes the year at 42.5% passing DVOA which ranks him 12th all-time. He doesn’t come close to the top of the all-time DYAR list because he has less passing volume than most other quarterbacks.

You may be wondering about Tua Tagovailoa finishing dead last in rushing DYAR among quarterbacks. This is mostly due to aborted snaps, which count as run plays for the purposes of our individual stats. Tagovailoa was charged with eight aborted plays this season, not counting aborted snaps where he was still able to get off a pass afterwards. (He had another three of those.) Tagovailoa also fumbled on a 7-yard scramble in Week 11 and never had a quarterback sneak try all season.

There will be a lot of questions about Josh Allen’s interceptions and how he comes out so high in DYAR. Part of the issue is how far downfield those interceptions were thrown. Not including Hail Mary attempts, the average Allen interception came with a 25.5-yard depth of target. The average for quarterbacks this season was 15.7 yards. Jordan Love was the next-highest quarterback with at least 10 picks, at 22.5 yards average depth of target.

Bryce Young had one of the worst seasons in DVOA history, although he came out so low in DYAR in part because he threw the ball so much more than other quarterbacks who had terrible seasons. Usually, a quarterback who is as bad as Young was this year won’t get 16 starts, even if he is the No. 1 overall pick. Here’s a list of the worst quarterbacks by passing DYAR going back to 1981. Note that seven of the top eight players here were rookies, the exception being Bobby Hoying in his third year for the 1998 Eagles.

Better Than His Standard Stats: Trevor Lawrence, JAX

Yes, Trevor Lawrence threw 14 interceptions and his completion rate dropped slightly, but he (narrowly) had more yards per attempt than he did in 2022. Lawrence saw his passing efficiency bump up from 4.0% (18th) in VOA to 8.7% (16th) in DVOA once opponent adjustments were applied. Also, Lawrence led the league by drawing 18 DPI penalties for 290 yards. And he played behind a line that ranked 29th in ESPN’s pass block win rate.

Worse Than His Standard Stats: Derek Carr, NO

Carr was once again spinning a high completion rate that doesn’t get you as much as you think. He was an above-average quarterback, but not too far above average despite being sixth in the NFL with a 68.8% completion rate (minimum 200 passes, not including spikes). In a stark comparison to Lawrence, Carr had only three DPI penalties for 30 yards. His 11.3% VOA (12th) drops to 8.2% (17th) once opponent adjustments are applied.

Most Improved: Baker Mayfield, TB and Matthew Stafford, LAR

A year ago, Mayfield ranked 32nd out of 34 qualifying quarterbacks with -221 passing DYAR. This year, refreshed in Tampa Bay, Mayfield improved to 12th with 736 DYAR. His completion rate improved from 60.0% to 64.3%, his yards per attempt improved from 6.5 to 7.1, and he threw 18 more touchdowns while throwing only two more interceptions despite over 200 more pass attempts.

Matthew Stafford played only nine games in 2022 and they weren’t particularly good, as he finished 24th among qualifying quarterbacks in both passing DVOA and passing DYAR. This year, Stafford was eighth in DYAR and ninth in DVOA. His yards per attempt climbed from 6.9 to 7.6 and he threw 14 more touchdowns while his interception rate and sack rate dropped.

Biggest Decline: Patrick Mahomes, KC

Mostly not through his own fault, of course, as the Chiefs receivers constantly dropped passes and ran the wrong routes. But in the numbers, Mahomes went from the No. 1 quarterback in passing DYAR last year to No. 10 this year. He had the same completion rate but threw fewer touchdowns with more interceptions, and his yards per attempt went from 8.1 to 7.0.

Best Individual Game: Mahomes and C.J. Stroud, HOU

Mahomes had 264 DYAR in Week 7 against the Chargers, completing 32-of-42 for 424 yards and four touchdowns and one interception, plus 31 rushing yards. C.J. Stroud had 264 DYAR in Week 9 against the Buccaneers, completing 30-of-41 for 470 yards and five touchdowns but taking three sacks.

Worst Individual Game: Sam Howell, WAS

Howell had -235 DYAR in Week 3 against the Bills, completing 19-of-29 for 170 yards with four interceptions and nine sacks.

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey lapped the field once you add together his rushing value and his receiving value, especially when you consider that he played a couple of games hurt. I was surprised to see James Cook narrowly pass Raheem Mostert once we added together rush and receiving value. Mostert, of course, was just part of the incredible running game in Miami, which finished third in DVOA. De’Von Achane was absurdly good in limited playing time. My baseline for qualifying to be ranked in DVOA or DYAR is traditionally 100 carries, and Achane just passed that mark. That means that he set a record for the best rushing DVOA ever by a qualifying running back, passing Hokie Gajan in 1984.

If you’re looking at that table, you probably want to know about Johnny Hector of the 1987 Jets. How on earth did a running back with less than four yards per carry make our list of the top DVOA seasons? Part of the issue is schedule strength, as the Jets played a very tough schedule of run defenses that season. Hector was also crazy good in short yardage, converting 13 out of 15 carries with 1-2 yards to go. He had 11 touchdowns with just 111 carries. Without the short yardage, however, his DVOA was still 25.3% thanks to some conversions on third-and-long (a 12-yard touchdown on a third-and-10, for example) and some impressive carries on second-and-long.

Returning to 2023, it wasn’t just Achane making waves with a limited sample size. Keaton Mitchell of the Ravens had 59.5% DVOA on 47 carries, with 8.4 yards per carry. That’s the highest rushing DVOA ever for a running back with a minimum of 40 carries.

None of this year’s running backs were historically poor. Dameon Pierce really fell off after a good rookie year and eventually lost his job to Devin Singletary. Jamaal Williams went from leading the league with 17 touchdowns in 2022 to one touchdown in 2023 that was scored on a fake kneeldown at the end of the game just because his teammates wanted him to get a touchdown. Dalvin Cook is toast, and I’m not sure what he’s going to bring to the Ravens in the playoffs now that they picked him up after the Jets let him go.

Better Than His Standard Stats: Aaron Jones, GB

Jones played a difficult schedule of opposing run defenses, sending his 12.7% rushing VOA (ninth) without adjustments to 18.5% DVOA (fourth) with opponent adjustments. This was less about facing great run defenses and more about never facing bad ones, as Jones played only one game against a team in the bottom 10 of run defense DVOA (Denver, eight carries). Jones was also a very consistent runner, leading all qualifying running backs with a 63% running back success rate.

Worse Than His Standard Stats: Kyren Williams, LAR

Make no mistake, Williams was very good this season, but he also faced a very easy schedule of opposing run defenses. Williams goes from 27.5% rushing VOA without opponent adjustments to 19.1% rushing DVOA with opponent adjustments. Eight of Williams’ 12 games this season came against teams that ranked 22nd or worse in run defense DVOA, including No. 30 Arizona twice. Also, Williams had only a 67% catch rate on pass targets, although his receiving DVOA gets a boost from opponent adjustments rather than a penalty.

Speaking of great running backs who had easy schedules, De’Von Achane goes from an even more ridiculous 59.1% VOA without opponent adjustments to that record 49.1% DVOA with opponent adjustments.

Most Improved: Christian McCaffrey, SF and Alvin Kamara, NO

Here’s a shock: Christian McCaffrey ranked only 14th in rushing DYAR in 2022. He was No. 1 receiving, but didn’t have anywhere near as good a rushing season as he had in 2023.

Alvin Kamara had a secret rebound season for the Saints, going from 41st out of 42 qualifying running backs in rushing DYAR last year to 12th this year. His yards per carry average actually dropped slightly, from 4.0 to 3.9, but he went from playing one of the easiest schedules in 2022 to one of the hardest schedules in 2023. (The Saints had the league’s easiest schedule based on total DVOA, but not based on run defenses they faced!) Kamara had more touchdowns and more first downs despite 43 fewer carries than he had a year ago. His receiving DVOA even went up slightly despite seeing his yards per reception hit a career-low 6.2.

Biggest Decline: Austin Ekeler, LAC

Ekeler saw his rushing DYAR plummet from 15th among qualifying running backs in 2022 to 44th this year. His DVOA dropped similarly. As a receiver, Ekeler dropped from fifth in DYAR to 31st, and from 19th in DVOA to 35th. In standard stats, Ekeler dropped from 4.5 yards per carry to 3.5 yards per carry — his first season ever below 4.0 — and from 18 total touchdowns to six.

Best Individual Game: James Cook, BUF

Cook had 116 DYAR total for his Week 15 game against Dallas where he ran 25 times for 179 yards and a touchdown, then caught two passes for 42 yards and another touchdown.

Worst Individual Game: Deon Jackson, IND

Jackson was immediately cut after this game. He carried the ball 13 times for 14 yards against the Jaguars, also catching five passes for only another 14 yards, for a total of -80 DYAR.

Wide Receivers

Surprise! I was shocked to see CeeDee Lamb pass Tyreek Hill as this year’s top wide receiver once we added in rushing value. Lamb had 14 carries for 113 yards and two touchdowns. Hill had six carries for only 15 yards with no touchdowns.

There’s a bit of an asterisk here, however, because of my new “Route DVOA” based on routes run rather than targets. I don’t have those numbers finalized for the entire regular season but Hill has been lapping the field for the entire season, in part because he is one of the top two or three most productive receivers in the league despite running fewer routes than the other top receivers.

Brandon Aiyuk finishes third in DYAR but with fewer targets than Hill or Lamb he ends up No. 1 in DVOA. In fact, Aiyuk sets a new record based on a, well, arbitrary round-number baseline. Normally, I use 50 targets as the baseline for wide receivers to be ranked. But if you move that minimum up to 100 targets, Aiyuk had the highest receiving DVOA since 1981. And a surprising, much-improved Nico Collins also shows up on the list of the top 10 DVOA seasons for wide receivers.

Puka Nakua finished eighth with 313 receiving DYAR and it’s a bit stunning that he doesn’t finish higher on the list of all-time great receiving DYAR seasons by rookies. Add in his rushing value, and Nacua ends up with 370 total DYAR, which is sixth all-time among rookie wide receivers. The main issue is a lower yards per reception number of 14.2 yards, which is lower than the rest of the top rookie seasons except for the No. 1 season, which belongs to Michael Thomas in 2016. However, Thomas had more touchdowns and a much higher catch rate compared to Nacua. In fact, all the other players in the top 10 for rookie WR seasons had more touchdowns than Nacua.

Jonathan Mingo had a terrible season as part of the overall terrible passing game of the Carolina Panthers. Mingo sets a record for the worst rookie season ever in receiving DYAR and ends up with the second-worst total among all receiver seasons going back to 1981! Mingo also had -47.3% receiving DVOA, which is the fourth-worst figure ever for a qualifying wide receiver (minimum 50 targets). The good news for Mingo is that some of the receivers who rank among the worst rookie seasons still had strong careers, including Plaxico Burress and Quinn Early. And even some of these receivers with the worst overall seasons had strong careers with a bad year or two mixed in. (Hello, A.J. Green.)

It would be interesting to see how the new Route DVOA would judge a season such as Chris Chambers in 2006, as he attracted a lot of targets but then was terrible on them. As you might imagine, Garrett Wilson is an example of a receiver who does much better in Route DVOA than regular receiving DVOA because of his ability to get open and attract targets in the otherwise terrible Jets offense. I certainly don’t think his poor DYAR is a reflection of a “bad” season given everything he (and the Jets) went through this year.

Better Than His Standard Stats: Noah Brown, HOU

Opponent adjustments bump Brown up from 15th in VOA to seventh in DVOA, which is why Brown ranked 32nd with 153 receiving DYAR despite only catching 41 passes for 567 yards and two touchdowns.

Worse Than His Standard Stats: Adam Thielen, CAR

In past years, we would have featured here a receiver who caught a ton of passes with a poor DVOA. But the new DVOA based on routes run suggests that getting targets is meaningful and a player such as Davante Adams had a good season despite a poor (regular) DVOA and a 59% catch rate. So instead, let’s highlight Adam Thielen, who caught a ton of passes in Carolina because somebody had to. He was 53rd in DVOA despite a 75% catch rate and over 1,000 yards receiving. He drops from 47th to 53rd because of opponent adjustments.

Most Improved: Nico Collins, HOU

Collins by light years over anyone else. He had -2 DYAR and -13.0% DVOA in 2022.

Biggest Decline: Stefon Diggs, BUF

Diggs dropped from 434 DYAR (second) in 2022 to 162 DYAR (30th) in 2023. Diggs had a slightly lower catch rate and a significant decline in yards per reception from 13.2 to 11.1. His average depth of target also dropped from 11.4 yards to 10.6 yards.

Best Individual Game: Amari Cooper, CLE and DJ Moore, CHI

Cooper caught 11 of 15 passes for 265 yards and two touchdowns in Week 16 against Houston for 97 DYAR. Moore also had 97 DYAR by catching 8 of 10 passes for 230 yards and three touchdowns in Week 5 against Washington.

Worst Individual Game: Garrett Wilson, NYJ

Wilson caught 2 of 8 passes for just 9 yards and -65 DYAR in Week 11 against Buffalo.

Tight Ends

As with Puka Nacua, it’s surprising that Sam LaPorta does not finish higher on the list of all-time DYAR seasons by rookie tight ends. LaPorta comes out 11th in receiving DYAR among rookies despite breaking the rookie tight end receptions record with 86 catches. The top rookie tight end season is Rob Gronkowski in 2010 at 243 DYAR (42-546-10 with 71% catch rate), followed by Ken Dilger in 1995 at 205 DYAR (42-635-4 with 76% catch rate).

I want to note that Travis Kelce’s “off” season, with a big decline from 2022, was still the second-most valuable tight end season of 2023 based on both regular receiving DVOA and the new Route DVOA.

Better Than His Standard Stats: Isaiah Likely, BAL

Only Kittle had a higher receiving DVOA than Likely among qualifying tight ends. Likely finished in the top five for DYAR despite only 30 catches, in part because he averaged 13.7 yards per reception. He was also targeted on a couple of DPIs. By the way, Mark Andrews was right behind Likely, ranking sixth in DYAR.

Worse Than His Standard Stats: Evan Engram, JAX

Engram had 114 catches, the second-highest total ever for an NFL tight end, but averaged only 8.5 yards per reception and fumbled three times. Therefore, he had a negative DVOA despite an 80% catch rate.

Most Improved: Isaiah Likely, BAL and George Kittle, SF

Likely and Kittle had the biggest year-over-year growth in DYAR for players with at least 25 passes in each year. Jonnu Smith of the Falcons also had a strong comeback season after just -29 DYAR in 2022. He went from 27 receptions for 245 yards with no touchdowns to 50 receptions for 582 yards with three touchdowns.

Biggest Decline: David Njoku, CLE and Dallas Goedert, PHI

Njoku dropped from 97 DYAR to -41 DYAR but we’ll put an asterisk on that one because his standard stats improved. The big problem for Njoku was catch rate dropping from 73% to 66%, which is really related to the quarterback situation in Cleveland rather than Njoku himself. Goedert dealt with injuries at midseason and fell from 204 DYAR last year to 75 DYAR this year. He had four more catches but 110 fewer yards, with a lower catch rate than in 2022.

Best Individual Game: Travis Kelce, KC

Kelce had 77 DYAR in Week 7 when he caught 12 of 13 passes for 179 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers.

Worst Individual Game: Gerald Everett, LAC

Everett had -44 DYAR in Week 17 when he caught 4 of 9 passes for 31 yards against a Denver defense that struggled to cover tight ends most of the season.