Week 12 Quick Reads: Remaining Schedules

Before we got into the best and worst players of Week 12, I thought it would be fun to take a look at the remaining schedule strength for players. This should particularly be a help for fantasy football purposes. With that in mind, I looked at average defensive DVOA of opponents in Weeks 13-17, leaving out Week 18. I also looked at weighted DVOA instead of regular DVOA to try to account for improving units such as Denver’s defense.

Speaking of Denver, you may want to pick up Russell Wilson for your fantasy playoffs. The Broncos not only have the easiest remaining schedule of opposing pass defenses but also a difficult schedule of opposing run defenses, suggesting that the schedule will funnel passes towards Wilson, Courtland Sutton, and Jerry Jeudy. The Broncos’ opponents in Weeks 13-17 include the Chargers twice (25th in pass defense), the Texans (26th), the Patriots (24th), and the Lions (13th, but declining in recent weeks).

The Chargers also have an easy schedule of opposing defenses coming up, both against the run and the pass. I’ll put a little bit of an asterisk on that, however, because it includes two games against Denver, and even using weighted DVOA instead of regular DVOA may not fully account for the way the Broncos have dramatically turned around on defense since Week 6.

The hardest remaining schedule of pass defenses belongs to Cincinnati, where all five opponents in Weeks 13-17 are in the top 10 of pass defense DVOA. Not like you were taking Jake Browning in your fantasy league, of course. Washington and Jacksonville also have harder schedules against the pass.

The hradest remaining schedule against the run belongs to Miami, so Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane may not perform for you in the fantasy playoffs the way they did early on. The Dolphins still have to play Washington (12th), Tennessee (2nd), the Jets (17th but stronger for fantasy purposes), Dallas (9th), and Baltimore (6th).

Here’s the full table for Weeks 13-17. Remember that passing is generally better than rushing, which is why the numbers for pass schedule are much higher than the numbers for run schedule. Numbers go from hardest schedule (1) to easiest schedule (32).

Remaining Schedule Weeks 13-17 by Average Defensive DVOA of Opponents
TEAM	PASS	RK	RUN	RK
CIN	-5.9%	1	-8.9%	9
WAS	-4.0%	2	-4.6%	24
JAX	-3.0%	3	-5.7%	20
BAL	-1.6%	4	-7.1%	16
LV	-1.4%	5	-4.0%	25
LAR	-0.7%	6	-7.2%	15
BUF	0.5%	7	-6.8%	17
SEA	0.9%	8	-11.2%	2
ARI	1.0%	9	-9.8%	5
MIA	1.6%	10	-12.1%	1
GB	2.1%	11	-3.5%	27
NE	2.6%	12	-2.9%	29
PHI	2.8%	13	-2.9%	30
HOU	3.4%	14	-9.0%	6
CLE	3.5%	15	-11.2%	3
DET	3.7%	16	-7.3%	13
TEAM	PASS	RK	RUN	RK
ATL	4.1%	17	-5.4%	23
NYG	6.0%	18	-5.5%	22
CHI	6.1%	19	-7.3%	14
MIN	6.8%	20	-3.8%	26
TB	7.1%	21	-5.6%	21
DAL	7.4%	22	-9.0%	7
CAR	7.4%	23	-8.9%	8
TEN	7.9%	24	-7.3%	12
KC	8.5%	25	-5.8%	19
SF	8.7%	26	-7.5%	11
NO	8.8%	27	-3.3%	28
PIT	9.1%	28	-2.4%	31
NYJ	9.2%	29	-10.4%	4
IND	9.6%	30	-6.6%	18
LAC	10.1%	31	-2.3%	32
DEN	12.8%	32	-8.3%	10

Now, here’s a look at the best and worst players of Week 12 by DYAR.

Quarterbacks
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
1.	Jordan Love	GB	22/32	268	3	0	0	162	149	13	DET
Love led all quarterbacks with 78 passing DYAR in the red zone this week, completing all five of his passes for 49 yards and three touchdowns.
2.	Dak Prescott	DAL	22/32	331	4	0	0	158	153	6	WAS
Prescott’s passing value drops from 201 YAR to 153 DYAR because of the Washington pass defense. Prescott led NFL quarterbacks with an average depth of target of 14.7 yards this week. Nobody else was above 11 yards.
3.	Patrick Mahomes	KC	27/34	298	2	0	1	153	159	-7	LV
Mahomes’ average depth of target of 4.9 yards was the fourth lowest of the week, behind Bailey Zappe, Tommy DeVito, and the quarterback he was up against, Aidan O’Connell (whose aDOT was 4.8 yards). Mahomes had -8 passing DYAR in the first quarter, then earned 167 passing DYAR the rest of the way.
4.	Aidan O’Connell	LV	23/33	248	1	0	1	134	134	0	KC
O’Connell was awesome on third downs, completing 9 of 12 passes with five first downs and a touchdown. (He also took one sack.) O’Connell had 100 passing DYAR on third downs compared to 34 passing DYAR the rest of the time.
5.	Josh Allen	BUF	30/51	339	2	1	1	123	65	58	PHI
Allen had four carries on third down, all of which converted for a new set of downs or a touchdown, and then also converted a fourth-and-1 on the Philadelphia 47 with an early sneak. He ended up with 82 rushing yards and two touchdowns. This is tied with a 2014 Russell Wilson game against the Rams as the No. 8 best rushing game by a quarterback in my database (since 1981).
6.	Russell Wilson	DEN	13/22	134	1	0	1	123	117	5	CLE
Wilson’s passing value is boosted from 55 YAR to 117 DYAR because of the Cleveland pass defense. Wilson completed all six attempts on third down with three first downs and a touchdown, plus a 34-yard DPI gain early in the first quarter on third-and-10.
7.	C.J. Stroud	HOU	26/36	304	2	0	4	111	85	26	JAX
Stroud had six scrambles for a total of 47 yards including a 1-yard touchdown. He led all quarterbacks with 134 passing DYAR on passes over the middle of the field this week.
8.	Trevor Lawrence	JAX	23/38	364	1	1	0	96	87	9	HOU
Lawrence’s passing value drops from 132 YAR to 87 DYAR because of the Houston pass defense. Lawrence benefited from a league-high average of 9.1 yards after the catch this week.
9.	Kenny Pickett	PIT	24/33	278	0	0	2	89	91	-2	CIN
With new Pittsburgh offensive coordinator Eddie Faulker, the Steelers discovered the middle of the field! Pickett was second in the league with 75 DYAR on passes to the middle this week.
10.	Matthew Stafford	LAR	25/33	229	4	1	0	86	89	-3	ARI
11.	Will Levis	TEN	18/27	185	0	0	1	68	68	0	CAR
Titans receivers averaged a league-low 2.3 yards after the catch this week.
12.	Jalen Hurts	PHI	18/31	200	3	1	2	65	53	13	BUF
Hurst had -87 passing DYAR in the first half of this game, then 120 passing DYAR in the second half and 19 passing DYAR in overtime.
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
13.	Sam Howell	WAS	28/44	300	0	1	4	63	47	16	DAL
Howell’s passing value is boosted from -9 YAR to 47 DYAR because of the Dallas pass defense.
14.	Jared Goff	DET	30/44	332	2	0	3	61	84	-23	GB
Goff gained just 9 yards on three scrambles including a lost fumble on third-and-5.
15.	Justin Herbert	LAC	30/44	217	1	1	3	42	29	13	BAL
Herbert’s passing value is boosted from -45 YAR to 29 DYAR because of the Baltimore pass defense.
16.	Tua Tagovailoa	MIA	21/29	243	1	2	2	21	39	-19	NYJ
17.	Brock Purdy	SF	21/30	209	1	1	1	20	22	-2	SEA
Surprisingly, Purdy had -40 passing DYAR on passes over the middle this week. The Seahawks defense was previously weak there but they allowed Purdy only two conversions on 10 passes. There were a few failed completions and an interception.
18.	Gardner Minshew	IND	24/41	251	0	1	2	12	3	9	TB
19.	Derek Carr	NO	24/38	304	0	1	1	0	11	-11	ATL
Carr was worth -97 passing DYAR in the red zone, with just two completions on five attempts, no touchdowns, a pick-six and an 8-yard sack.
20.	Jake Browning	CIN	19/26	227	1	1	4	-20	-22	2	PIT
21.	Desmond Ridder	ATL	13/21	168	1	2	0	-20	-15	-5	NO
Ridder had -54 passing DYAR including both of his interceptions on first downs.
MNF	Justin Fields	CHI	27/37	217	0	0	3	-22	-31	10	MIN
22.	Dorian Thompson-Robinson	CLE	14/29	134	1	0	0	-27	-9	-18	DEN
Cleveland receivers averaged just 2.5 yards after the catch this week.
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
23.	Baker Mayfield	TB	20/30	199	2	1	6	-30	-10	-21	IND
Mayfield completed just 7 of 11 passes on first down with a goal-line touchdown, an interception, and two sacks. He had a net average of just 2.7 yards on first downs.
24.	Tommy DeVito	NYG	17/25	191	1	0	6	-36	-5	-32	NE
DeVito loses significant rushing value thanks to a loss of 1 on a left-end keeper, a fumble on a scramble, and an aborted snap turned over to the Patriots.
25.	Kyler Murray	ARI	27/45	256	1	0	4	-38	-45	7	LAR
26.	Lamar Jackson	BAL	19/32	177	1	0	2	-40	-37	-4	LAC
27.	Bryce Young	CAR	18/31	194	0	0	4	-58	-71	13	TEN
28.	Geno Smith	SEA	18/27	180	0	1	6	-58	-54	-5	SF
29.	Bailey Zappe	NE	9/14	54	0	1	1	-64	-64	0	NYG
30.	P.J. Walker	CLE	6/13	56	0	0	4	-112	-112	0	DEN
31.	Mac Jones	NE	12/21	89	0	2	1	-125	-125	0	NYG
Jones’ 2023 follies on deep passes continued, as he threw only two passes with more than 15 air yards and one of them was intercepted.
32.	Tim Boyle	NYJ	27/38	179	1	2	7	-187	-172	-15	MIA
In the first three quarters, Boyle had 14 pass plays and -65 passing DYAR. In the fourth quarter, Boyle had 31 pass plays and -108 passing DYAR.
MNF	Joshua Dobbs	MIN	23/32	185	1	4	2	-191	-194	4	CHI

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Kyren Williams	LAR	16	143	0	6/6	61	2	90	35	55	ARI
Williams moved the sticks four times as a receiver, including one gain with 31 yards after the catch and another with 20. He also had a 69% success rate on the ground with six first downs and gains of 56 and 24 yards, with no runs tackled for a loss.
2.	Jonathan Taylor	IND	15	91	2	0/0	0	0	67	67	0	TB
Taylor goes from 50 rushing YAR to 67 DYAR becaues of the quality of the Tampa Bay run defense. He had an 73% success rate on his carries, although his only carry on third down was a 12-yarder on third-and-23.
3.	Christian McCaffrey	SF	19	114	2	5/6	25	0	56	55	2	SEA
McCaffrey had six first downs to go with two touchdowns on the ground, plus another as a receiver. He only lost yardage or was stuffed on one run.
4.	Keaton Mitchell	BAL	9	64	0	2/2	25	0	42	25	17	LAC
Has Mitchell taken over as the main running back for Baltimore? He was on the field for 46% of snaps compared to 28% for Justice Hill and only 27% for Gus Edwards.
5.	Isiah Pacheco	KC	15	55	2	5/5	34	0	40	25	15	LV
All of Pacheco’s gains fell between 1 yard and 8 yards with no stuffs or double-digit runs. He had two 1-yard touchdowns.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Jonathan Taylor	IND	15	91	2	0/0	0	0	67	67	0	TB
2.	Christian McCaffrey	SF	19	114	2	5/6	25	0	56	55	2	SEA
3.	Samaje Perine	DEN	7	55	1	1/1	11	0	39	36	3	CLE
Perine had a 3-yard loss but otherwise his carries each gained at least 3 yards with a 24-yarder and a 15-yarder.
4.	Kyren Williams	LAR	16	143	0	6/6	61	2	90	35	55	ARI
5.	Raheem Mostert	MIA	20	94	2	0/1	0	0	30	35	-5	NYJ
The New York Jets run defense moves Mostert from 18 rushing YAR to 35 rushing DYAR.

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total and Rushing)

Player

Team

Runs

Rush
Yds

Rush
TD

Rec

Rec
Yds

Rec
TD

Total
DYAR

Rush
DYAR

Rec
DYAR

Opp

Jaylen Warren

PIT

3/3

-34

-29

-5

CIN

Warren is mainly in last place because of a lost fumble on third-and-2 and opponent adjustments for playing a poor Bengals run defense. However, he also had just one first down on 13 carries. He had two on just three receptions along with a reception for a loss of 5 yards.

Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR	Opp
1.	Jaylen Waddle	MIA	8	8	114	14.2	0	68	NYJ
Waddle had six first downs plus gains of 8 and 9 yards. He converted three passes on third down into a new set of downs. He also gets a bit of a bump for facing the Jets pass defense.
2.	DeVonta Smith	PHI	7	8	106	15.1	1	59	BUF
Smith moved the chains six times, including a touchdown. All of his targets came on second or third downs. His one incomplete target went 48 air yards.
3.	Kalif Raymond	DET	5	5	90	18.0	0	55	GB
Worcester represent! The pride of Holy Cross had 48 receiving DYAR and added rushing value with a 6-yard carry on second-and-7. All five of his receptions gained first downs, with three of 20 or more yards.
4.	Jakobi Meyers	LV	6	7	79	13.2	1	53	KC
As the legendary Bob Lobel of Boston’s WBZ would say, “why can’t we find players like that?”
5.	Jalin Hyatt	NYG	5	6	109	21.8	0	48	NE
The rookie wide receiver had his best game by far, with four first downs and three gains of more than 20 yards apiece. He converted a third-and-8 (with a 1-yard pass he took for 11 yards after the catch) and a third-and-16 (with a 41-yard bomb).

Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR	Opp
1.	Elijah Moore	CLE	3	9	44	14.7	0	-57	DEN
Moore gets -24 rushing DYAR for the fourth-quarter blown reverse to Pierre Strong that was fumbled and recovered by Denver. As a receiver, he had just one first down or gain of more than 10 yards, a 26-yard grab on first-and-10 later in the fourth quarter. The worst receiver by DYAR without considering rushing was Josh Downs of Indianapolis, who had -46 DYAR for catching 5 of 13 passes for 43 yards. He caught only 1 of 5 passes on third or fourth down.

Week 12 Quick Reads: Remaining Schedules

Authors

Aaron Schatz

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