Groovin’ with Govier: Fantasy Baseball Roundup (9/12)

Get into the groove as I take you on a stadium tour across the fantasy baseball realm! It is my hope that you will find this article both entertaining and informative. Don’t forget about our stellar season-long fantasy baseball coverage at FTN Fantasy. Save a couple bones with my promo code MJGOVIER when you sign up so you can get access to outstanding pieces like Matty Davis’ Weekly Hitter Planner. Also, I’ve started a weekly video complement to this article. Each week a new episode will be live at 6 p.m. ET every Saturday on the FTN Network YouTube channel. Take advantage of the live chat in real-time to ask questions related to this week’s article or for questions you have for the following week’s action.

It is my ultimate goal for you to absorb and apply winning fantasy baseball wisdom from each edition of Groovin’ with Govier. It’s similar to when Neo was offered the blue or the red pill. If you continue reading this, you take the plunge to find out how far my fantasy baseball analysis can take you. Every Tuesday we’re sippin’ on gin and juice in search of the ultimate…a league championship! The length of the MLB season is too much for some people, but not for those who come here! We’re ride or die fantasy baseball stans who will not rest until the final out of the season. Let’s get crackin’!

Ronald Acuña Jr.’s Hunt For 40/70 Is Almost At An End

Bye Felicia

Some of us have run out of options to secure a successful fantasy baseball season for 2023. That’s the perfect time, then, to jump into a 2024 mock draft. Last week, Tout Wars put on a brief six-round mock draft to give fantasy baseball maniacs a tiny preview of where the market may be heading in 2024. I want to respect the good people at Tout Wars for giving me a chance to compete in 2023 (and hopefully another shot in 2024), so I am only going to share my picks. If you want to see the whole board and learn more about it, go to the Tout Wars website for more or check out this public link of all six rounds of the draft board. 

The mock draft was a 15-team roto format with 5×5 standard scoring. I drafted out of the seven hole. I could have had Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge, Freddie Freeman, Fernando Tatis Jr. or other hot studs who are likely considered first rounders. In the end I went with José Ramírez of the Guardians. Why did I do that? For me, it’s simple. Coming into 2023, JoRam was a top-five pick in fantasy baseball drafts. His qualities are ample. He’s a third baseman who can hit for power, steal bases and make consistent contact. Despite Cleveland’s awful power outage in offensive output this year, Ramirez has still been able to be a 25/25 hitter with excellent balance between his identical 10.5% BB rate and 10.5% K rate. I expect the Guardians to improve offensively in 2024 because that’s the nature of the game. One year can be hell on earth while the next one becomes a return to normalcy that Warren G. Harding would be proud of. JoRam turns 31 this coming Sunday. That doesn’t faze me. He is locked in now with that shocking contract which Cleveland got him to sign. I am going on the record now: Barring injury, Ramirez will top his totals in almost every offensive category outside of batting average. Here are the rest of my picks from the seven spot:

The most glaring theme from my six picks are the three Toronto Blue Jays I drafted. I took Bichette, but I could have had Elly De La Cruz, Bryce Harper, Jose Altuve or Corbin Burnes. Bichette got pinched by the knee issue that slowed him down in the second half of 2023, but when he has played this year, he has been a productive hitter. His steals aren’t there like they were in 2021, but he hits for average and always will hit for average. His ability to get on base via the walk is a little disappointing, but for a roto league with batting average, I feel good about Bichette. Plus he’s only 25 years old. There are more levels for Bichette to eclipse as a player. The other Blue Jays were no-brainers for me. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is an outstanding hitter who has been a first-round talent the last couple of years. This season has been inconsistent from a power perspective, but Vladdy has battled. He’s only hit 4 home runs since July 24. That’s with a 50% HHR and a 47% GB rate. In Guerrero’s 2021 season he had a 45% GB rate. That was the same season where he ended up with 48 dongs. So I don’t think I’m just getting a discount by drafting a known name who has been a first round talent. I’ll take Guerrero in the third round of a 15-teamer every time I can do so.

Finally the last Blue Jay, Jordan Romano. He’s an elite closer who can be my top dawg RP. Fifth round is a safe place for me. 

As for Oneil Cruz, a bogus injury derailed his 2023 campaign. That’s it. As long as he doesn’t miss chunks of time again with constant injuries, he’s going to provide at least a 25/25 season in 2024. That’s the conservative estimate. If he makes up for lost time and leaps forward in an improving Pittsburgh lineup, now we’re talking about a possible first-round talent. Remember that Cruz debuted in 2022 and was able to crank 17 dingers in 361 PA. He’s not starting from scratch when he takes the field again in 2024. Drafting two SS in the first six picks may seem silly or uncalled for, but I couldn’t pass Cruz up there in the fourth round. I could have had Mike Trout, Cody Bellinger or Paul Goldschmidt instead. As it’s super early right now I don’t have a clear indication on the depth and availability of all the positions. So I admit freely that I focused more on the most talented guys available in my eyes. As for Sandy Alcantara, right now there is no indication of TJ surgery for his flexor strain. Despite his challenges this year compared to his Cy Young run in 2022, having Sandy as my No. 1 SP in the sixth round is stellar. I admit I see the world through eyes that are mesmerized by Sandy’s unique standing in the game. We’ll see if I still feel this way come February. I’m almost certain I will change my mind on a lot of these decisions by then. Still, it was fun to mock it up.

Pointless Act

It’s important to find time for levity in each day we inhabit this planet. If we can do so with brevity, then we have completed the levity/brevity/regularity trifecta for the day. So let me introduce this week’s most innocuous transaction as found on MLB’s own website. It’s sadly now become the norm for Michael Soroka to hit the IL. Poor guy. 

Screenshots

Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Chicago Cubs

Monday marked the arrival of the long-awaited Cubs prospect who has been making prospects folks giddy for many moons now. I don’t know if Pete Crow-Armstrong is worth the hill of beans he’s purported to be, but I am certainly excited to see what he can do to help the Cubs over the final couple of weeks. His defense is a specialty that will be put to good use in the coming weeks, though it won’t be all that helpful to fantasy baseball managers. PCA was a 20/20 player in the minors this season between AA and AAA. The most important issue of note for fantasy managers has to do with playing time. Mike Tauchman has cooled off lately, producing a .289 OBP over the last month. Both are left-handed hitters as well. If Tauchman fades and PCA thrives, he will be an everyday contributor who can tip the fantasy baseball scales of justice in favor of those who roster him. 

Chris Paddack, SP, Minnesota Twins

Remember Chris Paddack and his changeup? He’s making strides to return for Minnesota after making his first rehab start last week. He was sitting at 95 MPH in that outing. That’s promising. Paddack will take the mound again Tuesday for AA Wichita. There are still plenty of starts to go before Paddack can be relied on. I think it’s unlikely he can provide more than one start before the regular season closes. He’s definitely worth monitoring on all watch lists. Paddack is only 27 years old. His best season was his rookie year in 2019, but in his last full go during 2021 his peripherals under the hood showed a better pitcher than his ratios would state. Coming back from a long recovery like Paddack is currently doing takes a lot of mental persistence. I give all the credit in the world to Paddack players like him who rehab for so long. Good luck to him.

CJ Abrams, SS, Washington Nationals

Now here’s a guy who baffles me, because he doesn’t hit the ball all that hard. Doesn’t that matter? CJ Abrams double-donged Monday to bring his homer total to 18. Pair that with 41 steals and holy crap, we got a serious ADP riser for 2024. I have been a big Abrams supporter, which isn’t saying much because he was a highly touted prospect and was one of the key additions that Washington brought in when they dumped Juan Soto to San Diego. The naysayers expressing their doubts about his inability to be a legit power threat due to his weak EV numbers definitely got inside my head over the last year. It made sense that if he couldn’t put a charge in the ball, how could he thrive as a 30/30 player? Well, his HHR at this point is at 34%. Not totally awful. Not great either. Abrams’ first home run Monday went 417 feet with an xBA of .910. His second rip of the evening had an EV of 111.1 MPH with a .980 xBA. Yes, the starting pitcher for his opponent the Pittsburgh Pirates was former Dodger Andre Jackson. Not exactly J.R. Richard on the mound when it comes to intensity. So what are we to make of all this? Well, compared to 302 PA in 2022 where Abrams had a 30.7% HHR with a maxEV of 106.9 MPH and an average LA of 6.8 (yes, I am aware that average LA is not the best way to judge a hitter’s growth or performance).

For 2023 Abrams has increased his maxEV to 112.5 MPH, his HHR to 34%, his average LA to 14 and did so while maintaining basically the same EV of 86.9 MPH. He’s absolutely hitting a lot more balls in the air. My conclusion is that he may be facing inferior competition as the season comes to a close. What I mean by that is the lack of a possible playoff berth for his squad and similar teams like his such as the Pirates may mean less intensity and therefore less focus on the part of his opponents. I know there is absolutely no way to prove this. Outside of the small incremental improvements in his analytics, the remaining reasons for Abrams’ increase in production would either be chalked up to luck or his talent. Or it’s a combination of all three: his talent, luck and small statistical improvements. Factor in that Abrams is only 22 years old, and it seems reasonable to assume that he is understanding the MLB game a bit better now. In the final analysis, a possible 20/40 season plays in any format.

Félix Bautista, RP, Baltimore Orioles

Félix Bautista may be the best Felix in baseball since King Felix in Seattle. To my amazement, I recently learned that Bautista is 28 years old. He’s just coming into his own as a closer. I swore he was younger than that. Bautista is currently on the IL with a partial UCL tear, but Monday Orioles GM Mike Elias stated that there was hope Félix could take the bump once more during the 2023 season. He’s actually been playing catch while avoiding any plasma injections to improve his elbow. The reality of Bautista coming back to contribute to anybody’s fantasy baseball team seems like a long shot. The playoffs are the focus now for Baltimore and if Bautista gets the call, it will be in the pursuit of that cause only. I don’t see how making a speculative addition of Bautista is going to result in productivity for any fantasy baseball teams over the final three weeks.

Edward Olivares, OF, Kansas City Royals

This is so classic! I have been an aggressive supporter of Edward Olivares since he was traded from San Diego in 2020. Once again I loaded up on shares of him during draft season as I awaited the breakout season I had imagined so many times before. By summertime of this year though, I had finally had enough. He wasn’t hitting for jack squat. I had to move on. He wasn’t even roster worthy in 15-teamers. Which brings us to now, where Olivares is letting it all hang out down the stretch. He still isn’t playing every day, but even when he pinch hits he is going yard. This week he is lined up to face all right-handed starters outside of Framber Valdez Sunday. I am nervous to suggest adding him in most formats, but I think he’s a safe add at least in 14-teamers and deeper. Whatever happens I am rooting for Edward Olivares, the master of the minor league option. Seriously, does he hold the all-time record for being optioned by one team?

James Paxton, SP, Boston Red Sox

I have to hand it to James Paxton. He no doubt exceeded what I expected from him in 2023. I have written about my love for the Big Maple countless times over the course of the season. However, I also thought I wised up by not expecting too much from him after such a lengthy layoff. It turns out Paxton gets the last laugh. He is done for 2023, so he should be jettisoned from all rosters. Yet, he did pitch 96 innings! That alone is impressive. Throw in his 101 K’s to boot, and what we have here is a veteran who showed he can still make hitters miss even after all this time. His ratios of (4.50 ERA and 1.31 WHIP) came back to reality, but I think it’s safe to say that Paxton is back.

Yoán Moncada, 3B, Chicago White Sox

This week’s Screenshots segment feels like a greatest hits tour. Yoán Moncada is definitely an oldie but a goodie. Moncada was left for dead by his partners only to pull off his own revenant like Hugh Glass and triumphantly return to his old ways. Moncada went yambo in three straight games last week while ripping multiple hits in each one of those affairs as well. Now Moncada’s knee is acting up, which led to him sitting Sunday. Monday was a rain out so he’s off the hook there. The knee issue isn’t a big deal and Moncada was supposedly going to play Monday before the weather crapped out. When there is nothing on the line in September, Moncada can be counted on to do some stat padding. Act accordingly. 

Sawyer Gipson-Long, SP, Detroit Tigers

This Detroit Tiger made his MLB debut last Sunday with a solid 5 IP with 5 K’s and his first career MLB victory over the Chicago White Sox. Sawyer Gipson-Long came over in the Michael Fulmer trade last year with division rival Minnesota. He wasn’t anything special before the trade to Detroit, but since that deal he showed improvement in his ability to miss bats. Over 65 IP at AA Erie to start 2023, Gipson-Long struck out 76 hitters and walked 15. Then after being promoted to Toledo this season, he struck out 50 more batters in 34 IP! The one drawback to his time in Toledo though was that he walked 14 hitters. That was almost identical to his total walks at AA except for the fact that he pitched in 15 less innings at AAA. I always remind the readers of this piece whenever I get the chance that Tigers pitching coach Chris Fetter is top five in the game at his position. Having Fetter in Gipson-Long’s corner will likely lead to the maximization of Gipson-Long’s talents. He’s a definite streamer to consider for those battling it out in their H2H playoffs right now. 

José Abreu, 1B, Houston Astros

The quest to be an average hitter by season’s end has begun for José Abreu. Currently he owns an 83 wRC+ (100 is average). Since returning from the IL Aug. 23, Abreu sports a 149 wRC+ with 4 dongs, 21 RBI, 12% BB rate and a stellar 8.5% K rate. Sure it’s only in 59 PA, but Abreu was left for dead by all of us in fantasy baseball, and understandably so. It appeared as if the game had passed Abreu by. Turns out a little dab’ll do ya! Resting on the IL combined with the rest of the Astros playing their best ball of 2023 has been the cure to what ailed Abreu. Coming into Monday, the veteran first baseman had driven in a run in six straight contests. That’s amateur hour though compared to what Oscar “Ray” Grimes did 101 years ago with the Chicago Cubs. In 1922 Grimes had an RBI in 17 consecutive games — still an MLB record. Of course, that was before Jackie Robinson desegregated baseball and it was back in the time when the same crap-covered ball was used over and over again. Still counts. Anyways, Abreu is on a tear and he certainly should be rostered in all formats until further notice. 

Jeff Hoffman, RP, Philadelphia Phillies

How about a brief mention of the former top prospect Jeff Hoffman? It’s warranted. I try to service all types of leagues in this article. That includes SOLD leagues. Hoffman is racking up holds opportunities while seemingly striking out at least two hitters every inning he pitches. Over his last two weeks Hoffman has 10 K’s over 7 IP with 2 BB’s and no ER. I assume most people playing in SOLD leagues added him, but I wanted to give Hoffman a quick spotlight just in case anybody missed out.