MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Best ball season is in full swing, and redraft leagues preparations have intensified. As more and more fantasy managers begin drafting, this year’s rookies start to gain momentum. As the rookies gain attention, the sophomore class from last season starts to become overshadowed.
Taking advantage of the prioritization of rookies over established veterans is a great edge to attack in fantasy drafts, especially when it comes to second-year players. These players often take huge strides during their second NFL season, building on their full season of NFL experience and development.
We continue our second-year scouting report series today with New York Giants tight end Daniel Bellinger.
Daniel Bellinger, TE, New York Giants
Daniel Bellinger was a fourth-round pick by the New York Giants in 2022 after a solid career at San Diego State. In four years with the Aztecs, Bellinger played in 31 games and amassed 68 receptions for 771 yards and five touchdowns. His final season with the team was his most productive season, where he totaled 31 catches for 357 yards and two scores. He functioned more as a blocker than a receiver in his collegiate career.
Despite his lack of production in college, Bellinger tested very well at the combine. He measured in at 6-foot-5, 250 pounds and ran a 4.63 40-yard dash. That helped push him into Day 2 of the NFL draft to New York. The Giants didn’t have much competition at the tight end position, which allowed him to see the field early.
What Went Right
Bellinger earned a role coming out of his first training camp and was a part of the offense starting Week 1. The rookie tight end didn’t have a statistical impact in his first career game, but he still was on the field for 48% of the snaps. After that, he was on the field for over 58% of the team’s snaps in games he was active (except for Week 7, where he suffered an injury). Bellinger also earned a small role in the team’s passing attack and emerged as a red-zone weapon. Bellinger earned at least three targets in eight of his 11 games at tight end and found the end zone twice. Six of his 35 targets came in the red zone.
What Went Wrong
One big issue for Bellinger was a common problem for young tight ends. He struggled to earn a consistent role in the passing attack and was used far more frequently as a blocker in his first season. Bellinger had just a 66.7% route participation in his first season and ran just 236 routes during his first year, which was 31st amongst tight ends. Of his 236 routes, just 89 came out of the slot. Bellinger is an inline tight end, which means he may be used in pass protection as a chip as well.
Additionally, Bellinger missed four games in the middle of the season after getting poked in the eye during the Giants’ Week 7 contest with the Jacksonville Jaguars. While it didn’t have a massive impact on Bellinger the rest of the season (he had at least 89% of the snaps in four of five games when he returned), it did hurt his counting stats for fantasy.
2023 Outlook
Unfortunately, Bellinger will likely be attached to the line of scrimmage for most of the season with the team’s acquisition of Darren Waller. Waller will be flexed out more frequently, and while Bellinger can still earn targets in an ambiguous receiving offense, he will not be the primary tight end on the field. Waller is also an adequate blocker, which means Bellinger will likely see fewer overall snaps in his second year.
Waller has a lengthy injury history, so it is far from certain that he will get through the entire season unscathed. Additionally, Bellinger is a big target who can find a niche in the end zone, which at the tight end position can create fantasy relevance. That doesn’t make him a player who should be drafted, but it could make him a priority add during the season.
Dynasty Outlook
Bellinger is a player who can reasonably be stashed on taxi squads but isn’t a priority addition to many dynasty rosters at this time. At best, he can be added as a trade throw-in if he isn’t currently on your roster at this time.
He is a plus athlete and has shown the ability to earn a role on an NFL offense, but he is no longer the primary receiving tight end and will be mainly used as an inline blocker throughout his career. Bellinger has touchdown upside and is a plus athlete, but he didn’t flash much ability to gain yardage after the catch in his first season. It is reasonable to expect him to lose valuable receiving work as long as the Giants employ Darren Waller.
