NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
The AFC South suddenly has two brand new established wide receivers. Last year, Calvin Ridley was traded to the Jacksonville Jaguars, though he’ll make his debut here in 2023. And just a few weeks ago, DeAndre Hopkins signed with the Tennessee Titans.
Our latest edition of Fantasy Crossroads takes a look at the division’s top-two wideouts entering the 2023 campaign.
DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee Titans
The Case for Hopkins
DeAndre Hopkins only played nine games last season, but even at age 30, the star wideout remained productive. Hopkins averaged 7.1 receptions, 10.6 targets and about 80 receiving yards per game, while also averaging nearly 17 PPR points per contest. He immediately returned to seeing a healthy target share, sporting a rate of 29.4%, a top-five rate among all wide receivers.
The efficiency wasn’t the greatest of Hopkins’ career, but he continued to demonstrate an ability to get open and earn targets. Now at 31 years old, Hopkins joins the Tennessee Titans, which could put him in more favorable positions to succeed, especially given his age. Titans’ offensive coordinator Tim Kelly was Hopkins’ offensive coordinator during his final season with the Texans in 2019. During that season, Hopkins lined up in the slot a decent bit, doing so almost 37% of the time.
Assuming Kelly goes back to playing Hopkins all over the formation, that would be a nice change of pace from Arizona’s stationary offense. Under Kliff Kingsbury, Hopkins rarely moved around the field. During his three seasons in Arizona, Hopkins lined up on the left side of the formation 89.6%, 79.5% and 62% of the time. He only lined up in the slot 17.4% of the time during that span. Expect more advantageous routes and alignments for Hopkins this year.
The Case against Hopkins
While some may worry about the age and potential decline, I’m not. He isn’t going to be asked to win on the outside 75-80% of the time like he was in Arizona anyway. However, the obvious concern is going from an aggressive, fast-paced, pass-heavy offense to a slow, run-centric offense in Tennessee. Over the last three seasons, Tennessee is sporting the league’s second-highest rush rate in neutral-game scripts at 49.3%. This past season, the Titans called pass on just 43.9% of early downs, the third-lowest rate in football. And over that same three-year time frame, Tennessee has called pass on just 43.5% of early downs, comfortably the lowest rate in all of football.
It’s no secret that Derrick Henry has been the focal point of this offense, as the powerhouse running back has led the NFL in carries in three of the last four seasons. When Kelly was the offensive coordinator in Houston from 2019-2021, the Texans ranked 18th in neutral-script rush rate, but they didn’t have a running back close to Henry’s caliber during that time. We could see more passing on early downs from the Titans with Kelly calling plays. From 2019-2021, Houston called pass 54.4% of the time on early downs, the 11th-highest rate in football during that span. We’ll see if Kelly’s offense leads to more passes on early downs. But regardless, this offense should still be run-heavy. Hopkins should, however, see a hefty percentage of the Titans’ total targets.
Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars
The Case for Ridley
After missing about two years of action, Calvin Ridley is back, now with the Jaguars. Every single report from practice is how unstoppable Ridley looks, and given how dominant of a route-runner he is, I believe it. When we last saw Ridley play a full season in 2020, he finished as a top-five fantasy wideout in Atlanta.
Although it was in a different offense, this Jacksonville attack is ascending with a young star under center. During Doug Pederson’s first season in Jacksonville, the Jaguars ranked 12th in the league in neutral-script pass rate (58.4%), while calling pass 54% of the time on early downs. Ridley has top-12 upside in this up-and-coming offense, especially since it sounds like he hasn’t missed a beat after so much time off.
The Case against Ridley
Missing so much time would be an argument against Ridley, but I just can’t get over how fantastic he looks, so I’m not even sure how much that matters to me. The Jaguars have more competition for targets than the Titans do, however.
Christian Kirk was a huge part of this offense last season, and the Jaguars did a great job of scheming him touches and targets. This past season, Kirk ranked 12th among all wide receivers in both targets and routes (19) off pre-snap motion, according to Sports Info Solutions. As a team, Jacksonville ranked ninth in the NFL in pre-snap motion rate at 42%. Kirk would line up all over the formation, whether it be from the slot, out wide or even in the backfield. Yes, his main residence was the slot, lining up there 75.2% of the time, the 10th-highest rate among wide receivers.
But it wasn’t as simple as just lining up in the slot and getting open. The Jaguars would scheme targets for Kirk, which is what every single team should do for their top pass-catchers. Kirk lined up in the backfield 17 times last year, as Pederson did his best to get him favorable matchups and free releases. And it worked. According to FTN Data, Kirk ran 89 pass routes with a linebacker as the primary defender. That was the second-most among all wide receivers, trailing only Dallas’ CeeDee Lamb.
Meanwhile, this is also a tight end-friendly offense. Over Pederson’s final three years in Philadelphia, tight ends accounted for 29%, 30% and 32% of the Eagles’ targets, all of which were comfortably above the league average rate during those seasons. This past season, Evan Engram, who was struggling to end his tenure with the Giants, put together a career year under Pederson, catching 73 balls for 766 yards and four touchdowns. He played a huge role in this offense, ranking third among all tight ends in routes run (523), while logging 76% of the offensive snaps. Engram also ranked seventh among all tight ends in route participation, (77% of Jacksonville’s dropbacks).
The Verdict: Calvin Ridley
Both players should be drafted as WR2 options right now, though both still have WR1 potential. However, I believe the highest ceiling lies with Ridley, mostly due to the fact the Jacksonville offense will feature more passes and more points. Hopkins should easily finish as a top-25 fantasy wideout, and he might have a safer floor. But Ridley has a better chance to finish as one of the best wideouts in all of fantasy football.
