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Chris Meaney
The MLB All-Star break has arrived and that means we have the Home Run Derby on Monday night. We have a loaded field, with Pete Alonso having already won the event twice, Julio Rodríguez making the finals in 2022, along withgreat power hitters Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Luis Robert Jr., Adley Rutschman, Mookie Betts, Randy Arozarena, and Adolis García. This event can be hard to predict but let’s discuss some of the best picks on the board for PrizePicks.
Pete Alonso + Julio Rodríguez More Than 45.5 Home Runs
Of the eight players in the field, nobody has the experience level of Pete Alonso. He’s looking to become just the second player to win three Home Run Derby titles, the other being Ken Griffey Jr. That would certainly be apropos with the event bein in Seattle, and Alonso was only eliminated last season because Rodriguez went for 31 (!) home runs in a round.
The field was conveniently set up to see that first-round rematch with Rodriguez having home-field advantage. Even though this is the highest combo on the board for the first round, they are both set up success. Alonso has the all-time lead in home runs in the event and it’s not close. He’s at 174 home runs hit all-time and currently has the longest bomb of the season at 489 feet. Since hitters can gain bonus time with two home runs of 440 feet or more, that’s an appealing factor for Alonso. As for Rodriguez, he set a record in 2022 becoming the only player with multiple 30-homer rounds in one Derby. Alonso will be motivated to try for his third crown, Rodriguez will want to show out for the home fans and try to win after coming in second last season. That should lead them to clear this number with somewhat ease.
Adley Rutschman Less Than 15.5 Home Runs
Adley Rutschman is an excellent baseball player and he’s a big part of the reason the Baltimore Orioles are just two games behind the lead in the AL East. However, he’s got plenty working against him in this Derby. For one thing, he has the fewest home runs of any participant with just 12. Secondly, no switch-hitter has ever won the event and neither has a catcher. That doesn’t make it impossible for Rutschman to do damage in this event but he is the eighth seed and has to face Luis Robert Jr. in the first round. Not only is Rutschman a heavy underdog, but Robert is only trailing Shohei Ohtani in the AL for total home runs in the first half. It’s not a hot take that Rutschman may not last long in the event, but let’s hope that he doesn’t hit a whole lot of bombs in the first round. T-Mobile Park is only 18th in home run rate for park factors so hitters who aren’t as well known for power may be at a slight disadvantage.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. More Than 23.5 Home Runs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is in the middle of kind of an odd season. He only has 13 home runs on the year and that’s low for a hitter of Guerrero’s caliber. While he is the heavy favorite ahead of Mookie Betts in the first round (-210), I think he might be slept on a bit based on this number. What gives you some comfort has to be he’s posting a career-high hard-hit rate at 56.5% and he has 152 hard-hit balls (95 mph or harder) on the year. That’s easily the lead in the majors since Betts and Julio Rodríguez are tied for second at 126. Even weirder for Guerrero is his launch angle has gone to 9.5 degrees after 4.3 in 2022. It hasn’t resulted in a ton of home runs so far but there are zero things wrong with his swing. He also already holds the record for most home runs in a round with 40, even though those came in a triple swing-off in 2019. Guerrero also holds the record for most home runs in one Derby at 91 in his lone appearance, although he’s still looking for his first title. Betts has a tough matchup in round one and if Guerrero beats him, he should clear this number. There is also a non-zero chance that Guerrero could hit 24 in the first round and lose, although it gets a lot more comfortable if he beats Betts and makes it into the semi-finals. It would be near impossible for Guerrero to not hit 24 home runs provided he wins his first-round matchup.
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