Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Bills vs. Dolphins
Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 71.5 (-110) after it opened @ 69.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 70.6% pass rate.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in football.
- THE BLITZ projects Stefon Diggs to accrue 10.3 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.
- Stefon Diggs has put up significantly more receiving yards per game (97.0) this year than he did last year (71.0).
Cons
- The Bills are a big 7-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 7th-slowest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 28.77 seconds per snap.
- The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- The Miami Dolphins pass defense has shown strong efficiency vs. wideouts this year, allowing 7.83 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-least in football.
- The Miami Dolphins pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
80
Receiving Yards
80
Receiving Yards
