Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Within a few episodes of a season of Survivor, you can generally get a feel at least for the contestants who will at the least make it far, and maybe for the real contenders. Before the season starts? It’s all conjecture and guesswork, y’all.
But let’s do it.
The 42nd season of the show starts next Wednesday, March 9, with 18 brand new castaways (no returning veterans). We don’t know a lot about the twists the season has in store, except for the fact that many of the wrinkles introduced last season (truncated time on the island, Beware Advantages, etc.) will remain in effect.
What we do have is the history of who does well on the show. Whether that is predictive … well, it probably isn’t, but it is the data we have.
How to Play Fantasy Survivor
Depending on where and how you play the game, different things matter and different things score, but at the heart, you’re trying to pick the Sole Survivor. Beyond that, you will want to find players who win individual immunities and those who do (or, more appropriately) do not get votes. But picking the winner is always the most important part.
Survivor Winners – The Template
We have a trove of 41 winners to pull from, including two multi-time winners (Sandra Diaz-Twine and Tony Vlachos). So from that, we can create a bit of a template. Historically the winners have been:
- Male (61.0% of the time)
- White (78.0% of the time)
- Early 30s (31.3 years old) — the oldest was Bob Crowley in Season 17 (57, the only winner older than 45, and the only winner who wasn’t a returning player older than 41); the youngest winners have been 21 (Jenna Morasca in Season 5, Jud “Fabio” Birza in Season 21)
Note that 40 appears to be a pretty decent cutoff for the show. A full 90.2% of the winners (37 of 41) have been under 40 (46.3% in their 20s, 43.9% in their 30s), with only four winners north of 40 (Tom Westman was 41 in Season 10, Denise Stapley was 41 in Season 25, Tony Vlachos was 45 in his second win in Season 40, and Bob Crowley was 57 in Season 17).
Also, traditionally, about half of the 40-plus contingent makes the merge (55.5%, and that number has trended up in recent years). We have five contests north of 40 this year, so don’t expect more than two or three to make it.
Survivor 42 Cast
There are 18 castaways this season. Here they are, alphabetically by last name, along with the betting odds I could find (you may see other odds elsewhere) and some interesting (at least to me) facts from their player bios. I’ll also give my guesses for their life in the game.
Rocksroy Bailey, 44, stay-at-home dad
(+1600)
An environmental scientist from Jamaica. He says he loves “watching golf,” so at least we know he’ll be fine with the boredom on the island. He’ll coast along for a while, but he’ll be one of the sacrificial vote-outs just after the merge.
Lindsay Dolashewich, 31, dietitian
(+1200)
This is the most New Jersey woman on earth. Her bio includes her describing herself as loud and talkative with an intense personality, her hatred of slow and quiet talkers, and that part of her key to victory is “Let’s be real, people are stupid.” If she makes it past the first two tribals, she has a shot at going far, but also there is zero chance she makes it past the first two tribals.
Romeo Escobar, 37, pageant coach
(+2000)
He stresses that he is competitive, and also describes himself as a “bit impatient,” so he’s going to have a hard time with any tribemates who don’t pull their weight. Still, that type can make it a long way if things break right.
Jackson Fox, 48, healthcare worker
(+750)
Favorite hobbies are “puzzling, weightlifting and dog walking,” which feels like a broken Mad Lib. He’s 48, which is a bit of a worry. I feel like this is one of the contestants I’ll be rooting for through three episodes and then he’ll be voted out.
Hai Gaing, 29, data scientist
(+750)
His interests are insanely specific. It’s not “traveling,” it’s “traveling to new cities and using their public transit system to explore.” It’s not “cooking,” it’s “recreating all my favorite dishes from scratch using recipes I find online.” Cites a desire to keep the “bigger physical threats” around to give him a shield. Has a real shot here.
Swati Goel, 19, Ivy League student
(+2500)
Her answer to “What is something we would never know from looking at you?” was “I’m a karate black belt. Just kidding. It’s jujitsu. Just kidding. Probably nothing.” And maybe I will love her on the show, but just from that answer, I want her voted off right away, please. Either be funny or don’t try to be funny. (Please don’t make me apply that advice to myself.)
Chanelle Howell, 29, executive recruiter
(+1200)
I feel like I learned exactly nothing of substance about her from her bio. It’s all very “I forced an AI to read 1,000 Survivor player bios and then write one.” Congratulations on being “cunning” and seeing yourself as a “true student of the game,” but I don’t think you’re going to go deep enough into the season to matter.
Jenny Kim, 43, creative director
(+2500)
A creative director, a pilates instructor, a welder, a furniture builder. If she can overcome the perceived stigma of being a slightly older Asian women (people are gonna start out with all sorts of stereotypes in their heads), she’s got a whole lot to offer.
Tori Meehan, 25, therapist
(+1000)
“This isn’t fair of me” alert: She describes herself as someone who seems like a “mean girl” but isn’t a “mean girl,” and when I see that, my immediate conclusion is, “So you’re a ‘mean girl.’” I would be very happy to be proven wrong on that, but until I see otherwise, that’s my instinct. That said, those types can make it a long way. Merge for sure, and then we’ll see.
Lydia Meredith, 22, waitress
(+1600)
Her hobbies don’t include “going to the movies,” they include “going to the movies by myself.” That’s such a weird thing to specify — not to do, because going to the movies by yourself is great, but to go into detail about for a bio — that it’s either a warning sign she’ll flame out fast or a great scene that she’ll go long. She will either be eliminated in the first two episodes or make it to the last three.
Maryanne Oketch, 24, seminary student
(+1600)
I get that putting someone for whom religion is a key facet of their personality in a game where they will almost certainly have to betray and backstab others is a fun thing, but I feel like the show forces a seminary student/preacher/etc. into the cast every year, and eventually that feels weird. Anyway, one of her pet peeves is “anything that disrupts my sleep,” and sorry Maryanne, but you’re not gonna make it very far.
Marya Sherron, 47, stay-at-home mom
(+1200)
A teacher who writes poetry and spoken word, whose brother was the first nurse in New York to die of COVID-19? Her age is a warning sign, but she smacks of someone who slides under the radar and makes the final tribal and then absolutely crushes the jury portion and wins the title.
Daniel Strunk, 30, law clerk
(+750)
One of his favorite hobbies is “keeping track of things,” and then for the “three words to describe you,” he only gave two words. So, you know, good keeping track. Anyway, his “Why do you believe you can be the Sole Survivor?” section is basically him saying “Oh I can’t, but I’ll try hard and have fun!” I really want to respect that and pick him to go far, but … he’s probably right.
Mike Turner, 58, retired firefighter
(+750)
This exact person has been on the show every season with just a different Mission: Impossible-style mask. He will be loud and demanding and make it exactly six episodes because “We have to keep the tribe strong,” and then he’ll get blindsided and his exit interview will feature him saying something like “I just had to be me out there. Had a great time.”
Drea Wheeler, 35, fitness consultant
(+2500)
“What is something we would never know from looking at you?” “I have a fear of death.” Like … yeah, I can believe that about just about anyone, Drea. She’s going to be in the power alliance after the merge and then get blindsided.
Zach Wurtenberger, 22, student
(+500)
One of his favorite hobbies is “sketch comedy writing,” which means I will probably want him to go home early, and if he tries to bring his sketch comedy into the show, everyone else will want him to as well.
Jonathan Young, 29, beach service company owner
(+500)
This is one of the two closest contenders to our winner prototype, and the odds reflect that. He lists “wearing shirts” as a pet peeve, holds the Guinness record for most pull-ups with 100 pounds on his back and apparently sings “Part of Your World” really well. He looks like the winner … which means there is no chance he wins. If he makes the merge, he will be voted out the very instant he doesn’t win individual immunity.
Omar Zaheer, 31, veterinarian
(+1000)
I need everyone to read this list of pet peeves, because it is an extremely weird list of pet peeves:
If Jonathan isn’t our winner prototype, Omar is. And he does that without also being the most obvious “get him out” candidate in the world. He’s got a shot at going really deep.
Survivor 42 Picks
Picking a single person to win this game based on a couple hundred words of bio and a picture is always going to be silly, but here are the ones I’m keying in on:
Favorites to Win Survivor 42
- Omar Zaheer (+1000)
- Hai Giang (+750)
Longshots to Win Survivor 42
- Marya Sherron (+1200)
- Jenny Kim (+2500)
If we’re picking one name, Marya is my No. 1 pick to win it all this season.
Beyond that, we also want to start forecasting people who will win individual immunities and players who might not get votes to be eliminated. Guessing who won’t get votes is even more of a fool’s errand than the rest of it, so instead, I’ll pick the ones I expect to go home on the quick side. Here are some of the choices there:
Individual Immunity Winners
- Jonathan Young
- Hai Giang
- Lindsay Dolashewich (if I’m wrong about her New Jersey-ness getting her eliminated early)
- Drea Wheeler
Early Elimination Candidates
- Lindsay Dolashewich
- Jenny Kim (definitely a boom/bust pick – if she’s not out early, she’s going to make it really far)
- Jackson Fox
- Mike Turner
