Week 8 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jonathan Taylor from EV Insight

Jonathan TaylorRushing Yards

Right now, Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-143/+110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-143) after it opened @ 59.5 (-136).

Pros

The Colts have a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Right now, the 6th-most run-focused team in the NFL (42.2% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Colts.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to have 136.2 plays on offense called: the most among all games this week.
The 6th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Colts this year (a staggering 61.7 per game on average).
In this week’s contest, Jonathan Taylor is expected by the projections to slot into the 85th percentile among RBs with 14.8 rush attempts.

Cons

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Jonathan Taylor’s 3.5 adjusted yards per carry this season indicates a remarkable regression in his running talent over last season’s 4.5 rate.
Opposing teams have run for the 10th-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 96.0 per game) vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year.
When it comes to the linebackers’ role in stopping the run, New Orleans’s unit has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards