Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Welcome to Hoops with Noops: Playoff Series Edition! The NBA postseason is here, and that brings another opportunity to find value in the betting markets. Not only do we have games to bet on, but also series prices, series props and other futures.
The betting menus are big, which means there is more opportunity to make some good wagers. Let’s dive into this series by looking at the season’s head-to-head matchups, review key injuries that require our attention, and pick a winner and place some bets.
Denver Nuggets (2) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (3)
Season Head-to-Head Matchups
Key Injuries to Watch
Jamal Murray
The guard has dealt with knee injuries for the last several years and recently strained his calf. He played through it in the last series and will have a few days off to recover, so for now, we can expect him to play game one. When healthy, Murray and Nikola Jokic are the best two-man offensive combo in the NBA. The Nuggets can win games without him, but they need Murray to reach their full potential. Denver’s ability to defend their title will depend on how healthy Murray is. We’ll need to keep on an eye on him to see if he reaggravates that injury.
Who’s Going to Win the Series?
Series Price: Nuggets -200, Timberwolves +165
The Timberwolves were the only team to sweep their first-round series. They were underdogs to defeat the Suns after Minnesota lost to Phoenix every time they played in the regular season. The Suns’ best players looked far from their best, and the team was unable to stop the Timberwolves from dominating the glass, the possession battle and ultimately, the series. Anthony Edwards was fantastic and has pushed himself into consideration as one of the NBA’s best players at just 22 years of age. Rudy Gobert and a cast of long, athletic defenders made life difficult for a Phoenix offense that’s very talented. Edwards hit every big shot needed late and Karl-Anthony Towns was a great second option when Edward was off the floor. The Timberwolves showed us a higher level than we’ve ever seen from them, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them win this series and even another one.
The Nuggets have been the favorite to win the Western Conference all season, and that continues after a 4-1 series win over the Los Angeles Lakers. There were just 11 points that separated the five games in that series, awfully small margins for a great team by the Nuggets. But Denver has won close games for the last few seasons. Their point differential is always less than a team with their win-loss record, because they slow games down late, knowing they can the offense to score the points in needed. The biggest concern is the calf strain Jamal Murray picked up during the series. Murray was able to play every game, but there’s always a chance that injury flares up again or causes strain on another part of his leg. Nikola Jokic is still the best player in the league and with Murray, the best duo in the league. Denver will be the favorites up to and possibly in the NBA Finals.
These teams split their four-game regular season series. Minnesota’s size and defense generally give Denver trouble. A few Nuggets players have said publicly that their playoff series against the Timberwolves last year was the toughest series they played on their run to the title. I expect Minnesota to be competitive, keep games close, and maybe even win a few, but just a few. Perhaps Anthony Edwards is ready to make his first deep playoff run. The Suns played poorly and were a much worse team than what Edwards is about to face. Of course, if Murray has to miss a few games then things because close to even. Murray is healthy for now and I’m assuming he’ll be able to play this series, but there’s always a small risk he misses some time.
I think the Nuggets win this series and do it in six games or fewer. It will likely be five or six very close games, but I’m not ready to trust the Timberwolves to win those battles late in games. Again, this hinges on Murray being healthy which I’m more confident about than the market seems to be. I’m grabbing some Denver series game spreads. The Nuggets -1.5 games, Denver in six games or less, is +100 and Nuggets -2.5 games, Denver in five games or less, is +185. I’ll split a unit on each of those and trust Jokic and Murray to do what they do so well and show the Timberwolves how close, gritty games are won.