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Josh Gross
DVOA Articles
NFL
DVOA
Predicting 2023 Stat Leaders
Bryan Knowles: Welcome back to FTN Fantasy’s DVOA preseason picks! Earlier this week, we looked at our best bets for the NFL’s end-of-season awards. Today, we’re going a little more objective, predicting the leaders in the major statistical categories. Voters might take away a well-deserved MVP or DPOY campaign. But the only one who can take […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
2023 DVOA Projections
Here are my DVOA projections for 2023, updated from the season forecasts in FTN Football Almanac 2023. For those new to my work since it began appearing on FTN Network, you can find an explanation of DVOA here. Note that there’s a big difference between DVOA and projected DVOA. The DVOA ratings that appear on […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
DVOA Preseason Award Picks
Bryan Knowles: This looks…familiar. Vaguely familiar, at any rate. Welcome friends old and new to the FTN DVOA preseason award picks! For years at our previous home, we have gone through the NFL’s list of end-of-season awards, carefully pieced through all of our DVOA projections and data, used careful consideration to account for all possible […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Introducing DVOA v8.0
Warning! This article is going to get deep into the weeds on how DVOA works. If you’re a longtime FTN reader and new to my DVOA stats, beware! If you’re a longtime Football Outsiders reader and want to know about the latest version of DVOA, read on. The main goal behind DVOA v8.0 is to […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
2022 DVOA by Route Type
Fast receivers such as Tyreek Hill and DK Metcalf win on curl routes by scaring defenders into playing off coverage. Amari Cooper and Garrett Wilson ate on slant routes despite not necessarily having the best quarterbacks. And receiver screens are generally bad – unless you are the Philadelphia Eagles. Those are some of the lessons […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Historical DVOA Archive
Here’s what you will find in these workbooks: ALL BASIC DVOA STATS 1981-2023 Total DVOA with past schedule, variance, estimated wins, and Pythagorean wins. Offensive DVOA with run/pass splits. (Remember, scrambles are passes for the purposes of team DVOA!) Defensive DVOA with run/pass splits. Special Teams DVOA with values in the five main categories of […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
The Many Degrees of 2023 Fantasy Football Sleepers
It’s that time of year again. Training camps have officially wrapped. 53-man rosters are (mostly) set. Now is the perfect time to draft your fantasy teams. The knowns are known, there are no more surprise preseason injuries to be had, and most starters can be sussed out by this point. All the information is available […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
Diamonds (and Saints) in the Rough
The New Orleans Saints have a deep arsenal of weapons on offense, but only one football to go around. Although that’s a good thing for a team looking to return to the playoffs, it’s a headache for fantasy managers everywhere. Let’s try to sort out where some of those players fit in the fantasy pecking […]
Vincent Verhei
NFL
DVOA
Tyreek Hill Reigns Supreme with Route DVOA
When I first created my advanced stats DVOA and DYAR for receivers 20 years ago, there was a bit of a breakthrough about which plays we were counting. At the time, there wasn’t much of a concept of “targets” in the public data. Receivers were tracked by receptions and yards per reception. Official gamebooks did […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
The Best Team Money Can Buy
If you’re a regular at Over the Cap or Spotrac, then this one is for you. While every season brings with it its own sense of contract drama, the volume this year has been louder than usual. Running back value, in particular, has been a headline-driving force. Holdouts by Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley, as […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Jimmy Garoppolo Does Not Like Pressure
It’s a big season for Kolton Miller, Dylan Parham, and the other members of the Las Vegas Raiders offensive line. They’re under a lot of pressure to prevent pressure. What’s the reason? Look at the track record of new Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. He’s consistently been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league under […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
DVOA Explainer
THE ULTRA-SHORT VERSION DVOA measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. THE SHORT VERSION DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based […]
Aaron Schatz