NBA Playoffs Series Preview: Mavericks vs. Clippers
Alex Christenson
Bettings
Will anyone dethrone the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West? Probably not.
But they can try!
This division is arguably the most interesting in all of football leading up to the NFL Draft. Both the Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos are looking for their quarterback of the future, while the Los Angeles Chargers could go a million different directions.
(Check out the NFL Draft Wish List series: AFC East | NFC East | AFC North | NFC North | AFC South | NFC South | NFC West)
The Kansas City Chiefs continue to win Super Bowls and I, a Bills fan, am absolutely thrilled about it. (Can you detect my sarcasm?)
The greatness of Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and Travis Kelce cannot be talked about enough, and now they’ll have seven draft picks to add to this roster. I guess the only downside of continuing to win Super Bowls is having the 32nd overall selection every year, though I think the Chiefs and their fans are fine with that trade. At 32nd overall, a wide receiver is absolutely in play. Yes, the team signed Marquise Brown, but that is just a one-year deal. And given the fact that this is a team that traded Tyreek Hill and still managed to win two championships, I don’t foresee them handing out long contracts to veteran wideouts.
Meanwhile, there is obviously some uncertainty surrounding Rashee Rice at the moment. If Kansas City drafts a wideout in the first round, Xavier Worthy would be a dream fit. Worthy has elite speed (4.21 40-yard dash) with way better ball-tracking skills than Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who is no longer with the team. He absolutely dismantled off coverage and would see plenty of that in Kansas City’s offense. Worthy did struggle when he faced press coverage but that’s why I love him in this scheme. According to FTN Data, Kansas City has ranked fourth, third and fourth in the league in pre-snap motion rate over the past three seasons, sporting an overall rate of 51.9% during that span. Giving Worthy free releases alongside Mahomes could be terrifying for opposing defenses.
Of course, if the Chiefs don’t add to their wide receiver room in Round 1, I would imagine offensive tackle would be the move. Jawaan Taylor struggled last season, especially with penalties. Keep an eye on Tyler Guyton and Jordan Morgan, though Morgan could project as a guard at the NFL level. The Chiefs could still select him, though the interior of their offensive line is clearly the strength of that unit.
Kansas City also traded L’Jarius Sneed, who somehow didn’t make the All-Pro team a year ago. Sneed followed opposing top wideouts for most of this season, which helped Steve Spagnuolo run a ton of man coverage. In fact, the Chiefs deployed man coverage at the league’s seventh-highest rate (32%), while Sneed was in shadow coverage 13 times, allowing zero touchdowns. With Sneed gone, it’ll be interesting to see if the Chiefs run as much man coverage, though they could still use a perimeter defensive back. At the end of the second round, I could see Kansas City draft Khyree Jackson from Oregon, who has the size (6-4, 194 pounds) and physicality to play press man coverage.
The Raiders will have three top-80 selections in this draft, and you know they will draft a quarterback at some point. Of course, the top-four signal callers in this class will be off the board at 13th overall, but is that too early for the Raiders to draft Michael Penix Jr. or Bo Nix? It is very, very possible both quarterbacks are available when the Raiders are on the clock at 44th overall. Penix has really good arm strength along with massive hands. He is also really, really good at avoiding sacks, though when forced off script, Penix struggles to make off-platform throws. He only completed 38.5% of his passes from outside the pocket. But there is plenty to like with Penix and I don’t think the Raiders would hesitate if he’s still available in the second round.
If the Raiders don’t take a quarterback in the first round, I think they should simply just draft Quinyon Mitchell. He is mostly viewed as the top defensive back in this draft class and given how he excelled in Toledo’s Cover-3 heavy scheme, it would make him a perfect fit in Las Vegas’ zone-heavy defense. The Raiders also have to address the offensive line, specifically the tackle position. Jermaine Eluemunor is gone, leaving a void at right tackle. BYU’s Kingsley Suamataia has experience playing both left and right tackle, while possessing the athleticism to pull in the run game.
Speaking of the run game, the Raiders will most likely add to the backfield during draft weekend, too. Josh Jacobs is gone and while Zamir White is expected to be the top option, the Raiders did add Alexander Mattison and should draft someone, too. With Luke Getsy coming over from Chicago to be the team’s new offensive coordinator, the Raiders might prefer a running back who has experience in a zone rushing scheme. With Getsy calling plays in Chicago last year, the Bears ran zone concepts 74% of the time, a top-seven rate in football. Jaylen Wright would be a solid fit alongside White, though potential third round draft capital might not be the greatest thing for White’s fantasy prospects.
Denver finds itself in a similar situation as the Raiders. The Broncos desperately need a quarterback, but barring a trade up, they won’t be able to draft one of the top four players at the position. There has been some buzz surrounding Bo Nix to the Broncos in the first round, which, given how badly Denver needs a quarterback, is entirely possible. He is a very experienced quarterback with strong pre-snap recognition. Nix was first in college football in adjusted completion rate (85.4%) and success rate (59.5%), though he did play in a screen-heavy, YAC-based offense at Oregon. He led the nation in total screen yards (762), as 17% of his total passing yards came off screens, while posting an aDOT of 6.8 yards. This would make him a really good fit for the offense that Sean Payton wants to run, however, And at the end of the day, walking into Week 1 with a quarterback room of Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci seems… suboptimal.
The Broncos would feel even more pressured to go quarterback in the first round because they don’t have a second-round selection, which makes me think that will ultimately be the move. But if they don’t draft a quarterback at 12th overall, edge or best player available will be the direction. Jared Verse had a pre-draft visit with Denver and if I had to guess, he’ll be the selection if he’s still there. But the Broncos also need help at wide receiver, defensive back and center.
No one knows what the Chargers are going to do. They have plenty of positions to address but they are also in a spot where teams will be trying to move up to their position, making them a trade back candidate, too. After moving on from Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler this offseason, the Chargers now have to replace over 46% of their targets from a year ago. Marvin Harrison Jr. or Malik Nabers would be the most exciting selection from a fantasy perspective. Both players would walk in and immediately flirt with 150 targets right away and as Justin Herbert’s WR1, would have top-15 fantasy upside as a rookie. But head coach Jim Harbaugh clearly wants to establish the run and with Los Angeles also having 37th and 69th overall, they could address the wide receiver position later on, especially considering how deep the class is. I think it is simple, however. If the Chargers can’t get a solid haul in a trade back, they should just take the best wide receiver on the board.
If they do move back, they could still be in range for a wide receiver. But if they move back toward the 12-15 range, they could go multiple directions. Tight end Brock Bowers will come off the board in that range and the Chargers also lost starting tight end Gerald Everett in free agency. They could also draft a defensive back, especially with Asante Samuel Jr. in the final year of his rookie deal. The most logical trade is with Minnesota, which would give the Chargers 11th and 23rd overall. If that happens, I’d expect the Chargers to select an offensive lineman, potentially Taliese Fuaga. This team could go so many different directions on draft day.
One thing appears certain, though: The Chargers will draft a running back. The obvious and popular connection is Blake Corum reuniting with Jim Harbaugh. The team added Gus Edwards this offseason, who has been a very efficient goal line option but is not a player you would expect a team to give 75-80% of the work. Corum has outstanding vision with an impressive jump cut ability to freeze defenders. I love his awareness in the open field, and he runs a lot harder than his size would suggest. He was the unquestioned goal line option at Michigan, but would that be his role at the NFL level? Los Angeles could also use someone out of the backfield that is really good in the passing game. No, they won’t be as good as Ekeler in that role. However, Edwards has 30 receptions in 69 career regular season games. And Corum wasn’t used much in the pass game, mostly seeing targets from checkdowns and occasional screens.
