Welcome back! The biggest soccer game of the club season is finally here as Manchester City and Inter Milan meet in Istanbul for the Champions League Final. Manchester City has been rolling lately and just won their second title of the season last weekend with an FA Cup win over Manchester United. The Cityzens are heavy favorites considering the history of this Final at -460 to lift the cup on FanDuel Sportsbook.
This will be the last DFS breakdown from me for the season, but stick around at FTN (and our newly redesigned sites) for coverage of all sports in action and the upcoming NFL season. If you haven’t been following along, I have still been entering soccer picks on the FTN Bet Tracker. You can also get access to my other thoughts/ideas on my Twitter (@vdray5). Let’s get to the slate.
FanDuel Captain Plays
The most popular captain in this game is without a doubt going to be Erling Haaland ($16). He has had a historic season, scoring 52 goals in all competitions. He’s facing an Inter squad that has been reliant on a strong defense this year, but Haaland has proven over the course of the last few seasons that he can score against anyone. Haaland has a higher shot volume than anyone on the slate and gets 1.92 SOG/90, which is also a slate-high. Haaland’s rostership projections are so high that if he has a good game, you will likely need him in the captain spot to even cash. He’s a no-brainer captain in cash games. He serves at the top captain option in tournaments as well as long as you commit to lineup differentiation elsewhere.
Plugging Lautaro Martinez ($13) into your captain spot can be an affordable way to make your lineup a little different. He leads Inter Milan in goals this year by a wide margin with 28 goals to his name. His overall shot volume is just shy of Haaland’s, and he averages 1.42 SOG/90 in all competitions this season. One benefit to playing Martinez is that he has nearly double the number of chances created this year compared to Haaland. Martinez has been in good form at the end of the season with nine goals and three assists in his last eight starts. Inter Milan has been effective attacking via the counterattack with Martinez leading the charge which is going to be their strategy against Manchester City in the UCL Final.
FanDuel Flex Plays
Kevin de Bruyne ($14) is as easy of a plug-and-play flex option as you’ll find. He has a clear attacking role for the team that are heavy favorites in this game. City is going to control the possession battle which is going to mean a lot of time on the ball for KdB to do what he does best and create for his teammates. He is the most likely player to record an assist in this game at +135 on FanDuel and will also likely create more chances than anyone in this game. His floor is arguably the safest on the slate.
It’s hard to ignore what Ilkay Gundogan ($9) did last weekend in the FA Cup Final with two goals. He has the knack of playing well late in the season when the games matter the most. He’s a decent option, but his inconsistency is far from ideal. I prefer Jack Grealish ($10) with his floor from peripherals if you have the salary to get him.
Hakan Calhanoglu ($9) is another flex play I am targeting. He will be an integral part of Inter’s midfield in this game. He will be especially important if Inter has any hope in going up the pitch. Calhanoglu has the second best anytime assist odds for Inter, and he has led the team in chances created this season. His floor is solid for this price especially with some defensive stats coming his way as well.
If you want to punt at this position on FanDuel, John Stones ($6) can play that role for you. He has shown more attacking upside lately including last weekend against United. His floor is brutally low, but his price tag can help you prioritize studs, which is important on a single-game slate.
FanDuel Defender Plays
Normally, I look to a few of the top-priced defenders for attacking upside. However, that specific play does not really exist on this slate like it does for most games. Manuel Akanji ($10) does not have nearly the attacking upside as you need to pay this price for him. The same goes for Alessandro Bastoni ($9). If you have the cash and really want to use it, Bastoni would be the preferred play of the two. He is always a threat to get an assist especially if Inter is effective on the counter attack and catches City out of position. He has a better matchup for defensive peripherals well.
Francesco Acerbi ($8) and Matteo Darmian ($6) are both viable on this slate. They have been fairly consistent collecting defensive peripherals this season. Manchester City allows more combined defensive action than Inter Milan, and these two should have plenty of opportunities to get defensive stats in this game environment where City controls the possession.
Kyle Walker ($5) is worth a punt look for me here. He’s the cheapest starter on the slate and won’t need many defensive stats to provide value.
DraftKings Captain Plays
DraftKings is a whole different beast when it comes to DFS soccer as the scoring system and lineup construction are both vastly different. A cheaper captain will save you several thousands of dollars, you are not required to roster a defender, and goalkeepers can be used. A captain like Hakan Calhanoglu ($12,600) or Jack Grealish ($12,300) both become instantly more appealing, especially with shots and crosses both worth points on DK.
Erling Haaland ($16,500) and Lautaro Martinez ($13,800) are both still viable captain plays on DraftKings, and Kevin de Bruyne ($16,800) enters the captain conversation on DraftKings. Unlike FanDuel, fading Haaland in the top spot is a safer strategy here. If not playing any of these five in the captain spot, they are top plays for flex positions.
DraftKings Flex Plays
One strategy I have not mentioned yet in this breakdown is rostering a substitute. This has been a proven tournament/GPP move in single game soccer slates particularly a Final like this one. Someone like Romelu Lukaku ($8,800) would be worth a look on this slate. He has been in solid goal scoring form since joining Inter this season. He will have very low ownership and should enter this game in the second half with Inter looking to be aggressive going for goal. It’s a risky play especially if he comes in later than expected, but it’s a move that can pay off in large fields. Henrikh Mkhitaryan ($3,000) is also appealing for the same reasons, and he is much cheaper than Lukaku.
Bernardo Silva ($7,800), Federico Dimarco ($7,200) and Nicolo Barella ($6,200) both intrigue me more as flex plays on DraftKings than they do on FanDuel. All of them have fair price tags and should fit most builds in terms of exposure.
It’s hard to ignore Ederson ($7,600) on DraftKings especially if you think Manchester City win this game. Wins are worth five points which is equivalent to five shots from an outfield player. Andre Onana ($4,400) is cheap enough to be viable in a tournament as well. He should make plenty of saves against City, and if Inter pulls off the upset, Onana will break the slate.
