Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Bettings
You know what they say. Things can change in the blink of an eye…
In dynasty fantasy football, of course.
The 2024 NFL Draft is just days away, and so much is going to change in the dynasty landscape. We need to be fluid with our rosters, and the days leading up to the draft is a great way to do just that. Let’s take a look at some moves I’m looking to make before the draft ends this weekend.
Was Bryce Young’s rookie season a disaster? Absolutely. However, his career isn’t doomed and I hesitate to call him a bust. From a fantasy perspective, Young finished as the QB22 last year, while his 0.28 fantasy points per dropback ranked dead last among qualified signal-callers. He also completed just 67.1% of passes from a clean pocket, one of the lower rates in the league. However, he certainly wasn’t in the ideal situation for a rookie quarterback. For starters, Carolina had arguably the worst combination of wide receivers and tight ends in the NFL. According to FTN Data, Young averaged just 1.62 yards of separation per pass attempt to WR/TE last year, the fourth-lowest mark in football. Meanwhile, his 2.7 yards after the catch per pass attempt ranked outside the top-five quarterbacks.
| Player | Team | Average Separation Per Attempt |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Zappe | New England Patriots | 1.30 |
| Desmond Ridder | Atlanta Falcons | 1.30 |
| Zach Wilson | New York Jets | 1.59 |
| Bryce Young | Carolina Panthers | 1.63 |
| Jalen Hurts | Philadelphia Eagles | 1.63 |
So why should you trade for him?
Well, for starters, we always want as many starting quarterbacks as possible in superflex dynasty leagues. But this offseason has been dedicated to putting Young in the best position to succeed entering his sophomore season. Carolina added two guards to the offensive line in Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis, while trading for Diontae Johnson. But perhaps the best addition was someone who won’t play a single snap for the Panthers. New head coach Dave Canales has done a phenomenal job in Seattle and Tampa Bay over the past few seasons, getting career years out of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield. Smith ranked seventh in passing yards (4,282), fourth in touchdown passes (30) and fifth in fantasy points alongside Canales in 2022. And just this past season, Mayfield was ninth in passing yards (4,045), seventh in touchdown passes (28) and 11th in fantasy points. And, for whatever reason, both quarterbacks were electric on third down alongside Canales. Mayfield was one of the best third-down passers in football last year, ranking third in passing yards with nine touchdowns and three interceptions. Smith, meanwhile, completed 63% of his third-down passes with 10 touchdowns to just one interception in 2022.
Carolina has picks 33, 39 and 65 in the draft, giving them multiple opportunities to add more talent to their offense. Whether it is someone who can get open with ease like Ladd McConkey to help Young get more separation, or a player like Troy Franklin who would give this offense an element of speed, the Panthers are going to keep adding pieces. Is Young going to crack the top-10 dynasty quarterbacks this season? No, probably not. But he’s an ideal post-hype sleeper who may not be as easy to trade for starting this weekend.
Odds are, nothing will happen during the draft that will change how we view Tank Dell for fantasy. That event already happened with the addition of Stefon Diggs. But perspective on rookie picks change once a player’s name is attached, so I’d still be looking to trade a late first-round pick for Dell, who many might be worried about now that the Texans have an elite trio at wide receiver. But I’m using the trade as an opportunity to acquire Dell, who is the only Houston wideout who doesn’t have any decisions looming. Diggs could leave after this season, and while I expect him to stay, this is the final year of Nico Collins’ contract. Dell would have had a stellar rookie season if he didn’t miss almost seven games, yet he still caught 47 balls for 709 yards and seven touchdowns. Following the bye week, Dell posted four top-24 finishes from Weeks 8-12 (he only ran four routes in Week 13). During that span, Dell averaged 5.6 receptions, 9.4 targets and 77 receiving yards per game. He also led the team with a 26% target share, 26% target per route run rate and 31% air yards share.
Obviously Diggs is going to command targets in 2024. But dynasty is looked at through more than just a one-year lens. Dell, who Stroud told the Texans to draft last year, should be paired with the star quarterback for years to come, and there is a very strong chance this is the lowest his value will be for quite some time.
2023 was a great season for Rachaad White, who finished as the RB4 in all of fantasy. And while it can be difficult to trade a player coming off a top-five season, we have to be fluid and adjust. Yes, White was great from a fantasy perspective last year, but it was mainly due to volume. Only Christian McCaffrey posted a higher snap share than White last year (78%), while he averaged 20.1 opportunities per game. His 272 carries ranked second in the NFL, but the efficiency wasn’t there. White averaged -0.41 rushing yards over expected per attempt, the sixth-lowest mark among qualified running backs. But it didn’t matter because Tampa Bay had no one else in the backfield to take work away from him. That will likely change during the draft, especially after head coach Todd Bowles talked about wanting to add a running back. Any loss in volume is less than ideal, but especially for a player who isn’t the most efficient on a per touch basis. And on top of everything else, we aren’t sure what this offense is going to look like without Dave Canales. It feels like now is the time to sell high on White and move on.
This one is more difficult.
I am very, very excited about the potential for George Pickens in 2024. Despite dealing with awful quarterback play last year, Pickens still caught 63 passes for 1,140 yards and five touchdowns. Just over 68% of his targets were deemed catchable last year, which ranked outside the top-60 wideouts. The trade of Diontae Johnson has many, and rightfully so, excited about what Pickens can do in 2024 as the lead receiver in Pittsburgh – especially when you look at his rates without Johnson a season ago. From Weeks 2-5 with Johnson sidelined, Pickens posted a massive 29% target share and 25% target per route run rate. He also saw 48% of the team’s air yards and 42% of the end-zone targets during that span. Pickens averaged 4.25 receptions, 8.2 targets, 89.2 receiving yards and 16.5 PPR points per game.
Still just 23 years old, Pickens has untapped potential. But I believe some uncertainties make this a good sell-high opportunity. For starters, the Steelers are going to address the wide receiver position in the draft, possibly as early as 20th overall. They also need to add someone to play the slot receiver role, so Pickens is going to see some target competition. Secondly, we have new quarterbacks and a new offense in Pittsburgh this season. Stylistically, Russell Wilson and Justin Fields are ideal quarterbacks to pair with Pickens. Both quarterbacks like to hold onto the ball and take shots down the boundaries, which is where Pickens wins. According to FTN Data, 20.4% of his targeted routes came off go routes last year, the seventh-highest rate among wideouts with at least 40 targets.
| Player | Targeted Go Route % | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Jalin Hyatt | 35% | 1st |
| Cedric Tillman | 22.7% | 2nd |
| Quentin Johnston | 22.4% | 3rd |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 21.9% | 4th |
| DeVante Parker | 21.8% | 5th |
| Darius Slayton | 21.5% | 6th |
| George Pickens | 20.4% | 7th |
It’ll be interesting if his role changes with Arthur Smith calling plays and if Wilson will throw to the middle of the field. For reference, in Smith’s offense in Atlanta last year, just over 9% of Drake London’s targets came off go routes. And we know Smith wants to run the football, as the Falcons ranked 30th in early-down pass rate last year (46.5%). I’m not saying to drop what you’re doing and trade Pickens off your dynasty teams. But this is the best chance to pair him with something else and tier up at wide receiver.
