Welcome to Week 3: We’ve seen job battles we thought were won turned over to new hands, and the returns of some stalwarts off the injured list this week. Some good, some bad. Let’s get to the big changes in the fantasy baseball bullpen report:
Fantasy Baseball Bullpen Report
Chicago White Sox
One of the very few bright spots in the White Sox season so far had been Michael Kopech’s successful conversion to a closing role. So naturally, he was debited with a blown save and absorbed the loss in the first game of their doubleheader against the Royals Wednesday after he surrendered a 2-run home run to Salvador Perez in the eighth. Deivi Garcia picked up the save in the second game of that doubleheader, pitching 2 innings in the process, but that was probably more a function of a depleted pen than any serious hierarchy change occurring in the Chicago pen.
Houston Astros
There’s no changing of roles here, but this has been a less fertile ground for saves than we originally expected. The team has struggled out of the gates, not handing many save opps to their relievers. The few times they have, the superpen that GM Dana Brown envisioned this offseason has rarely converted: All of Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu don’t look like their dominant selves. For that reason, I’m downgrading the save outlook for this team from an A to a B until they start playing like the Astros of old.
Kansas City Royals
The torch has been fully passed to James McArthur, and he appears to be running away with it. McArthur picked up another save in the first game of KC’s doubleheader against the White Sox, his fourth on the season. Given what appears to be a secure status as the Royals closer and their newfound competence as a winning outfit, this pushes McArthur all the way into the “B” tier of desirable closers.
Los Angeles Angels
It was announced Wednesday that Robert Stephenson would be missing the entirety of the 2024 season with an elbow problem, robbing us of the chance to watch one of 2023’s most electric arms establish himself on his new team. Stephenson was presumed to be the primary challenger to Carlos Estévez’ job as Angels closer, so that makes Estévez’ role a little more secure this year, despite him blowing his most recent chance at a save Tuesday.
Milwaukee Brewers
After getting the team’s first handful of save chances after Devin Williams’ injury, it sure looks like Abner Uribe has lost his manager’s confidence after failing to convert his last two save opportunities and looking less than dominant, in general. His two most recent appearances are mystifying when it comes to figuring out his role: One came against the bottom of the Padres order in the fourth inning of a 3-run game with the Brewers trailing, while the other came in the eighth inning of a 0-0 tie game, eventually picking up the win.
Joel Payamps picked up his second save of the season in that game Wednesday, but his brand of pitching is unusual — he had 0 swinging strikes from 16 pitches in that game, and has just an 8.9% swinging strike rate for the season. He induces weak contact and doesn’t walk anybody, but that isn’t the typical recipe for a ninth inning arm.
Taken together, Uribe’s demotion and Payamps’ uninspiring repertoire make Trevor Megill an intriguing possibility after he finishes his rehab assignment. He’s only owned in 21% of Main Events, so there’s a buying opportunity here. Payamps, for what it’s worth, is rostered in 72% of Mains.
Minnesota Twins
Jhoan Duran appears to be nearing game readiness after his oblique injury, as he’s scheduled to face live hitters Friday. That would put him on pace to return to the active roster somewhere around the end of April, so Griffin Jax’s time as the primary closer in Minnesota is drawing to a … well, close. So far, it hasn’t led to much: he’s only recorded a single save this year, a disappointing return given the expectations after Duran went down. Jax should remain somewhat useful given Rocco Baldelli’s proclivity toward playing matchups.
Seattle Mariners
Similar to the Astros, the Mariners haven’t hit the ground running, and — to make matters worse for some fantasy managers — manager Scott Servais has used Andrés Muñoz as more of a high leverage fireman than as a strictly ninth-inning option. He should still get the lion’s share of opportunities in Seattle, but the usage makes Ryne Stanek a relevant name in fantasy circles. He’s rostered in 60% of MEs but only 16% of OCs, and he has the same number of saves as Muñoz in the early going.
He certainly has closer-level stuff — a 98+ mph fastball and a splitter/slider combination with 16.1% and 23.5% swinging strike rates, respectively — but Stanek’s biggest drawback as a potential co-closer is the same issue that Muñoz occasionally suffers from: a bloated walk rate. He has short term value while Muñoz is being used in a more versatile role, but he’s not the type of pitcher managers — real or fantasy — should be relying on in critical spots.
All of which makes the impending return of Matt Brash all the more interesting. He’s throwing live BP and potentially beginning a rehab assignment next week, which would put him in line to return to the big-league pen in early May. How the situation shakes out from there is something of a mystery, but Brash had emerged as Scott Servais’s preferred high leverage reliever by the end of last season. His return may not lead to saves for him directly, but it could return Munoz to a more traditional closer role.
Tampa Bay Rays
Pete Fairbanks possesses some superhuman stuff, but it hasn’t quite translated into results on the field this season. He was blown up in Coors when the Rays played on the road there, but that was excused by the altitude. Wednesday’s outing against the Angels is more difficult to handwave away, with Fairbanks’ typical velocity producing precisely one swinging strike in 28 pitches.
Looking deeper at his stuff, it sure seems like there’s a serious problem with Fairbanks’ fastball:
2023
2024
Velo
99.0 mph
97.4 mph
Induced Vertical Break (inches)
18.0”
15.9”
Horizontal Break (inches)
-0.1”
-2.3”
SwStr%
12.40%
5.80%
Ball%
36.10%
51.90%
The shape is completely different with decreased velo, and the results have plummeted along with his stuff. Whether this is small sample noise or the sign of a larger problem, Fairbanks’ results are fairly alarming, and open the door for other members of Kevin Cash’s bullpen to start getting opportunities. Jason Adam is the most obvious immediate beneficiary, with Colin Poche and Phil Maton next up (Poche vs. lefties).
Texas Rangers
With a single swing of Shea Langeliers’ bat April 9, José Leclerc earned a blown save, a loss and a demotion in the hierarchy of the Texas bullpen. Manager Bruce Bochy gave him the vote of confidence after that game, but he’s entered in the sixth inning in both of his appearances since then, with David Robertson and Kirby Yates emerging as the high-leverage relievers of note in Arlington.
Yates has converted his only save opportunity and picked up a multi-inning win in the meantime, with Robertson blowing a save by putting too much traffic on the basepaths on Wednesday in Detroit — albeit in the 8th inning, with Yates yet to enter the game. That puts Yates as the favorite to earn most of Bochy’s calls to the pen in save situations, but how long the bullpen hierarchy remains that way is hard to tell.
Yates’ bread-and-butter combo is his 4-seam and splitter, which he uses in a nearly even 50/50 split. He’s maintained his velo surprisingly well over the years; when he led the league in saves in 2019, he sat 93.5 mph with the 4-seamer. 5 years later, he’s sitting 93.2 mph. That isn’t the type of velo closers conventionally have, but Yates makes it work because his splitter is such a devastating weapon:
For his part, Leclerc has rebounded nicely after the demotion, throwing 3 innings of scoreless ball while striking out 4 and — perhaps most significantly for him — walking only 1.
One last name to keep in mind: Josh Sborz — who is throwing bullpens again — will be eligible to come off the IL Monday 22. While Kirby Yates has been excellent, Sborz has the high-octane velocity and raw stuff of a traditional closer, and Bochy has used him to close out a World Series before. He’s currently at 0% rostership in Mains and OCs, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility that he gets into the save mix in Arlington in the near future.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays’ top pair of relievers from 2023 made their returns to the mound this week. We wouldn’t quite call them “triumphant,” however, as Erik Swanson absorbed the loss in his debut Wednesday night, surrendering 3 runs and recording only a single out against the Yankees. Jordan Romano fared slightly better on Tuesday night, allowing a run but earning his first save of the year in his season debut, with his stuff mostly looking intact.
It was just his first appearance after an extended layoff that stretched into spring training, but Swanson’s biggest problem was that his most effective weapon — his splitter — lacked its usual punch. A pitch that had a 20.7% swinging strike rate against in 2023 failed to register a single whiff in 9 pitches against the Yankees, fooling absolutely nobody. Giancarlo Stanton, in particular, had very little trouble recognizing the pitch:
It’s just one appearance, so don’t sound the alarms quite yet, but if Swanson can’t find his splitter again then it’s possible that Chad Green — himself battling some kind of day-to-day shoulder soreness, according to John Schneider — or Yimi Garcia would retain their fantasy relevance as the next man up to Romano.
