How Justin Jefferson could disappoint in 2021 - Fantasy Football 2021

Justin Jefferson was everything the Vikings could have hoped for last year after the team selected him in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Jefferson ranked fifth in yards per route run (2.65) and seventh in fantasy points per route run (0.51). After cresting a 70% snap share in Week 3 he was the WR5 in fantasy points per game the rest of the season. After crushing the opposition in his rookie year his current ECR (WR7) and best ball ADP (WR8, 25.4 overall) are spicy. While Jefferson is an immensely talented sophomore, there are factors that could affect his fantasy football finish.

Let’s have a chat about Justin Jefferson ’s fantasy football production for 2021.

Could Justin Jefferson disappoint in 2021 fantasy football? Red-zone role Jefferson ascended to the Vikings’ No. 1 in terms of overall volume, but Adam Thielen still owned the work inside the 20. In Weeks 3-17 (excluding Week 12 when Thielen was on the Reserve/COVID-19 List), Jefferson led in target share (27% vs. Thielen’s 23%), but he was a distant second in red-zone targets with seven to Thielen’s 18. Jefferson scored three of his seven total receiving touchdowns on long plays outside the red zone.

Thielen might be 30 years old, but he’s far from washed. Last year, among all wide receivers with 50 or more targets, he ranked 30th in yards per route run (1.86), immediately behind Terry McLaurin . Could Jefferson overtake him as Kirk Cousins ’ main squeeze near paydirt? Sure, it’s possible, but it’s also equally conceivable that Thielen retains this role in 2021. If that happens, Jefferson will again have to be extremely efficient with his scoring opportunities.

The Vikings’ defensive resurgence If you were listening to Fade the Chalk last year, Adam Pfeifer and I were pounding the table that the Vikings defense was primed to take a step back, but even we couldn’t have foreseen just how much. After finishing as a top-five defense in DVOA in each of the previous two seasons (fourth and third), Minnesota plummeted to 18th in 2020. It was a perfect storm of peril for Mike Zimmer. Michael Pierce opted out, Danielle Hunter was sidelined by injury, Anthony Barr was limited to two games due to injury and their rookie corners struggled mightily for much of the year. Now with saying that, this year sets up for a return of the mighty Minnesota defense of yester years. Hunter has been cleared, Pierce has returned, the team added Dalvin Tomlinson to plug the middle, and Barr is healthy.

The secondary will also be improved. Patrick Peterson was added to assume Xavier Rhodes ' former post as the Vikings’ shutdown corner. Cameron Dantzler played extremely well down the stretch and looks ready to put it all together for a full season. Mackenzie Alexander is back in town and waiting in the wings if Jeff Gladney proves he isn’t ready to remain the starting slot corner. Xavier Woods also arrives from Dallas to lock down the back end with Harrison Smith . And the team also signed Bashaud Breeland . If this defense bounces back to previous levels, it’s going to hinder the passing game and pace for this offense.

Pace and passing rate The Vikings' passing attack was aided by the defensive struggles last year. In neutral and positive game scripts, the offense ranked 26th and 28th in pace. They sped up to 17th when trailing. The biggest reason to worry here is that the Vikings has the 13th most plays (383) in negative game script last year. In 2017-2019, they had the eighth-fewest (875) total plays in negative scripts. If the defense finds its former glory, this offense will struggle to match last year's overall play volume, and the passing attempts will suffer the most.

Last year in neutral and positive gamescripts, Minnesota was the third- (51% run) and sixth-most (61%) run-heavy team. When they trailed, the passing rate skyrocketed from 49% to 66% (17th). With a healthy Dalvin Cook ready to reprise his role as the offensive engine, this team could run the ball all day long. Alexander Mattison , Ameer Abdullah and Kene Nwangwu are also talented players who can help shoulder the load.

Justin Jefferson 2021 fantasy outlook All hope is not lost for Jefferson after stating all of this. Jefferson is an immensely talented player who, as insane as it sounds, could take another leap in his second season. Currently, Jefferson is the WR14 in my PPR rankings . This all sounds like doom and gloom, but it’s not. He can take the mantle as this team’s do it all alpha. With the pace and passing rate concerns, the ceiling is probably not nearly as high as many hope or forecast for this season. Efficiency can carry you only so far. The volume also has to be present for Jefferson to meet the lofty ADP expectation baked into this year. Tread lightly in drafts, understanding he is being drafted at his ceiling.

How Justin Jefferson could disappoint in 2021 - Fantasy Football 2021

Could Justin Jefferson disappoint in 2021 fantasy football?

Red-zone...

This feature is only available to FTN Fantasy Premium Members Only