2023 Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Prospect Vault (Prospects 1-10)

This piece in the FTN Draft Guide is the first part of a series you should expect to see throughout the preseason. By the end of February, we will have compiled a list of the top-100 players in my 2023 Prospect Vault.

While there is already an unfathomable amount of content available for your consumption here at FTN Fantasy on the known quantities of big-league talent, we’re going to aim to do something different here. Our target audience today is dynasty players, as the most actionable info from these prospect rankings will be in dynasty leagues, but you can also benefit in traditional leagues by knowing what prospects lay beneath the surface and what their relative skill sets are should they accelerate their timelines and become fantasy relevant before anyone expects. You also might find yourself inspired by this amount of prospect info being available and want to join a dynasty league for the first time, and if that’s the case, I salute you.

See the entire Prospect Vault series: 11-20 | 21-40 | 41-60 | 61-80 | 81-100

Check out the full FTN Fantasy 2023 fantasy baseball draft guide! Some caveats about this list as it will compare to other prospect rankings lists you might see.

We only care about fantasy impact, so a hitting prospect’s defensive skill only matters insomuch as it is a determinant in his likelihood of regularly cracking a big league lineup, it is not by itself a consideration. Most “Top Prospect” lists value defensive ability as part of their overall evaluation, and it will be given very little impact here. This will change some rankings considerably, so be cognizant of this difference in methodology. Positional scarcity and timeline until big leagues matter. A catcher that can provide similar offensive numbers as a 1B will be far more valuable, etc. A prospect closer to the majors is generally more valuable than one further away. We all want deep-sleeper 17-year-olds who are tearing up A-ball, but the reality is the longer the duration between present day and MLB debut, the more things that can go wrong due to injury and/or circumstance, so there is more inherent risk. This is especially true with pitching prospects. We will include a smattering of amateur players. Sometimes the best dynasty assets are ones who are not generally on your competition’s radar, whether this be an international free agent or a domestic high school/college prospect. We have updated the rankings to reflect the landing spots for 2022 draftees. Many prospect lists consider only players who are on a minor league roster, we aim to be even more forward thinking than that. I’m a bit more arbitrary and subjective with the definition of prospect than some prospect lists. My definition is, more or less, “Have we seen this player play in the big leagues in the role that he is likely to play in the big leagues?” If so, they are not going on the list. So, Gunnar Henderson , Corbin Carroll , Josh Jung and the like have graduated, and their absence is not a knock on their talent, but rather a classification. Conversely, Vidal Bruján , despite having been given extended playing time, was brought up before he was ready due to circumstance, and thus had not “graduated” in the way we expect prospects in their final form to do. So, if your favorite prospect is not on here and you think he should be, or you want to gripe that a guy has had major league time and shouldn’t be on here, all that tells me is that you skipped over this paragraph. A quick note on “Future Value,” which you will see referenced here and on the accompanying spreadsheet. This is on the commonly used scouting scale of 20-80. This can be used to describe a prospect’s overall grade (80 is likely a Hall of Fame candidate, 20 is fringe organizational depth) or an individual attribute ( Giancarlo Stanton has 80 power, Yasmani Grandal has 20 speed). No one described here will have an overall grade lower than 40, as this is of course a top prospects list, but they may have individual grades of as low as 20 for certain attributes. One of the most fun things about analyzing prospects for fantasy baseball purposes is that you can find prospects who have elite traits that translate well to fantasy but rank much lower on their overall grade due to poor athleticism or defensive skill. As long as they stay in the lineup, you will still reap the rewards of their elite individual traits, their blemishes be damned. Man, I got excited just typing that! On to the prospects…

1. Francisco Álvarez, C, New York Mets (60) A 70 grade in terms of raw power is rare enough for any hitter, and rarer still for a 21-year-old catcher who has consistently been the youngest player against the competition he faces at every level. Francisco Álvarez split time between Double-A and Triple-A in 2022, and while he had markedly more success at Double-A with regard to both power and average, the results were enough to warrant a brief cup of coffee in The Show in September. Offering 30-plus-homer power and a serviceable hit tool is compelling enough for any prospect, but doing it from the most premium of defensive positions makes him a unicorn. Think Cal Raleigh , but he hits .260 and isn’t a drain on your ratio categories and will happily DH when not behind the plate. Alvarez has massive upside and has only scratched the surface of his opportunity as a big leaguer.

2. Jordan Walker, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals (60) Already an imposing 6-foot-5 and 220 pounds, Jordan Walker looks every bit the part of a corner infielder for decades to come, and he has the 70-grade power to go along with it. He spent all of 2022 in Double-A, and had a great deal of success there hitting .306/.388/.510 and compiling 19 HRs and 22 SB. He has the frame to continue to have 20/20 seasons upon graduating to MLB, and at only 20 years old, he’ll have plenty such seasons ahead of him. The only thing standing in his way is that he won’t end up with 3B eligibility on his current team any time soon, as Nolan Arenado will be holding onto that spot for the next five years at minimum. Walker the offensive weapon is ready to contribute though, regardless of where he plies his trade defensively.

3. Eury Perez, SP, Miami Marlins (65) An astronomical riser, Eury Perez has as much potential as anyone as his development and physical tools mature. A rail-thin 6-8, 200, Perez has already shown the ability to dominate lower levels and put up a massive 34% K rate at Double-A in 2022. While his development will take time (he’s still only 19), if he eventually fills out to something closer to 240 pounds — which his frame could easily support — we’re talking about an extremely imposing figure who is likely sitting 98-99 with the ability to push triple digits whenever needed. While also being able to mix in 50-plus-grade curves and changes at will. This is quite the skill set, and while he is one of a number of exciting young Marlins pitching prospects, he has the highest ceiling of any of them, not just in their own organization, but in all of baseball.

4. Anthony Volpe, SS, New York Yankees (60) Anthony Volpe started the 2022 season slowly, but he managed to put up 21 homers and 50 steals across Double-A and Triple-A, and while his average was definitely down from the previous year against stronger competition, he showed a similar high contact approach in the longer sample at Double-A and ended up hitting a respectable .251 at that level even after a very cold start, so he will likely be fine for ratios while putting up plenty of counting stats.

Volpe is likely to be the next great Yankee shortstop, and he will have ample opportunity to produce in an extremely friendly offensive environment surrounded by a juggernaut of a lineup.

5. Grayson Rodriguez, SP, Baltimore Orioles (60) At 6-foot-5, 220, Grayson Rodriguez is out of central casting for the next great pitcher in the mold of a Justin Verlander , Gerrit Cole , Max Scherzer power-pitching archetype. Over a 14-start sample in Triple-A in 2022, he managed to put up a 35% K rate, which should actually be fairly sustainable with his approach once he arrives in MLB. He’ll also benefit, once he eventually reaches the big leagues, from the 2022 overhaul at Camden Yards, transforming it from an on-brand AL East launching pad to a pretty neutral park overall. All of that coupled with the lack of frontline talent in the Orioles existing rotation, and we should almost certainly see Rodriguez’ star begin to shine in 2023.

6. Jackson Chourio, OF, Milwaukee Brewers (60) A diminutive speedster who still manages to generate plus power, Jackson Chourio was a relative unknown coming into the 2022 season after having only had experience in the Dominican Summer League prior. Boy howdy did he make an impact in 2022, spending time at both Low-A and High-A, amassing 20 HRs and 14 SBs in just over 400 PAs between the two levels while hitting well over .300 in A-ball. He did all of that while being one of the younger prospects at every level, and he will be only 19 when starting the 2023 season in what will presumably be Double-A.

While he is likely still a year or two from being big-league ready, the talent is obvious and should be able to become even more explosive as Chourio develops physically and is given time to develop a professional approach to hitting.

7. Daniel Espino, SP, Cleveland Guardians (60) While most of Daniel Espino ’s 2022 season was lost to injury, the frame and talent are still extremely enticing, as is the opportunity that should be available to Espino given the Guardians’ lack of rotation depth behind Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie . Espino is a high-velocity arm who should hit triple digits when he wants to, and also has multiple plus off-speed offerings with both his slider and his curveball, and a serviceable changeup to boot. While he is yet to put it all together for a full season at the higher levels, 2023 could be the year for that, and may warrant a late-season call up if everything is going smoothly to start the season.

8. Elly De La Cruz, SS, Cincinnati Reds (50) A 70-power, 70-speed prospect is alluring regardless of circumstances or blemishes, but Elly De La Cruz has a pretty big one. He has struggled to make contact across all levels, and the lack of pitch recognition and undesirable approach have played a big role in that. Even if he sacrificed some power for a more measured approach, he would likely find plenty of success and be plenty appealing. He’ll be only 21 to start the 2023 season, there’s still room for growth, but we’ll want to monitor his K% closely. If it stays in the 30% (or higher) range for too long, he’ll have a tough time having sustainable major league aspirations.

9. Gabriel Moreno, C, Toronto Blue Jays (60) Gabriel Moreno can hit — that much is clear through his nearly constant .300 batting average at all levels of the minor leagues — but an elite hit tool alone does not a fantasy star make. The fact that he plays the ultra-premium position of catcher and is not a drag on ratios is not to be overlooked, but he would need to add considerable power or speed to the equation in order to be considered in the same vein as J.T. Realmuto or Adley Rutschman . Further complicating matters for Moreno: He’s stuck in at minimum a timeshare with Alejandro Kirk , although the Venezuelan prospect may very well either take over the primary catching role or be integrated as a DH to help him see more regular at bats. Some talents are too obvious to be kept from significant playing time, and Moreno appears to be one of them.

10. Noelvi Marte, SS, Cincinnati Reds (60) Noelvi Marte ’s development isn’t quite as far along as some might have hoped. The Mariners making him the crown jewel of the Luis Castillo trade certainly mean his eventual big-league teammates will be quite a bit less potent than the ones he was hoping to join in Seattle. But Marte’s combination of power and speed with the potential to hit .280 or better against MLB pitching while playing a good enough SS to stay at the premium defensive position throughout his career is an enticing package. 20/20 seasons are rare enough, and he might even have some additional upside on that HR number playing his home games at Great American Small Park.

2023 Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Prospect Vault (Prospects 1-10)

This feature is only available to FTN Fantasy Premium Members Only