Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Richie JamesReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Commanders vs. Giants
Right now, Richie James’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 22.5 (-110) after it opened @ 24.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Giants are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.50 seconds per snap.
- Richie James has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL, completing an impressive 85.2% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 99th percentile among WRs.
- The Washington Commanders pass defense has shown weak efficiency against wideouts this year, giving up 9.01 yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-most in the NFL.
- The Washington Commanders pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.00 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 53.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 4th-least in football.
- The New York Giants O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
- Richie James has been among the bottom wideouts in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging a mere 2.68 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 14th percentile.
- The Washington Commanders safeties profile as the best safety corps in football this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
40
Receiving Yards
40
Receiving Yards
