(The first part of this fantasy baseball article was originally published in February. See bottom for a full update and leaderboards.)

This is it, people. In the paraphrased words of King Leonidas, today is the day we fight, today is the day the win dies. Buckle up and take this definitive stand with me against fantasy baseball’s most glaring flaw: The dreaded and disparate win. 

Anyone paying attention knew there was a problem years ago. Nowhere else in fantasy baseball do we reward poor performance. Batting average doesn’t budge on a walk or error; you can’t almost hit a home run or nearly get a save. But six earned runs allowed in a win by your fantasy opponent or your pitcher leaving a scoreless game empty-handed are unnecessary heartbreaks. Why have we settled on this objectively poor measure of skill? The problem has only grown. Pitching has become more specialized. The past several years brought us the inception, acceptance and eventual regular usage of openers.

As the problem grew more obvious, some tried improving the category, instituting quality starts in place of wins. While it offers some improvement, it happens the existing version of QS happens too frequently (between 20% and 30% more often than SP wins) and allows for potentially poor results. We need better.

We must detect and address any systemic defects that may be responsible for compromising the competitive balance. Below, I intend to not only expose the win's weaknesses as a category but provide a viable, data-backed and wholly skill-based replacement. I understand my ambitions are high — we’re demolishing what we have down to the frames and starting over. Even if the finished product ends up looking a bit like the old one, we will know we can trust what’s going on behind the walls.

I’ve traveled down this path to dethrone the win once before, and a quick summary of my journey thus far is pertinent. A large percentage of leagues (mine and otherwise) shifted to quality starts over wins. At least by definition, a quality start is a function of performance, whereas a pitcher can technically give up a dozen earned runs and still get a win, while another can throw nine perfect innings and not get one.

This led to my initial decision to dissect and stratify the QS in an article last winter. If we fast forward to the product of that venture, we have the money start. Long story short, I combined distance, rarity and correlation to winning percentage in order to spotlight the best starts on an individual basis. In the age of advanced matchup analytics, bullpen specialization and quick hooks, I felt it was crucial to emphasize the completion of seven innings. However, as I tested my results this season, I found inefficiencies because of (you guessed it) wins. I should have picked up on using earned run average earlier. So let’s start fresh.

We’ll begin with the new, simpler money start, represented by a game started and:

  • At least 7 innings pitched, no more than 2 earned runs allowed, or
  • At least 8 innings pitched, no more than 3 earned runs allowed.

This type of framework proves to be extremely useful as far as player analysis for obvious reasons: We hadn't previously quantified these premium starts, so of course accessing this sort of leaderboard proved beneficial. The highest possible ERA for a game under this classification is 3.38, a more respectable benchmark for excellence than the 4.50 maximum a quality start could imply. However, the money start did have a few issues in its effort to supplant the win, including not occurring frequently enough for categorization:

 TOTAL
SP WINS
MONEY
STARTS
20171640789
20181515751
20191449645
2020469173

Even if we don’t have the volume to displace the win with the money start alone, I am happy with the descriptive ability of the metric — there is no circumstance where a money start can hurt you, unlike the quality start. Additionally, it’s invaluable in highlighting pitchers with high per-game ceilings. This becomes immediately actionable for streaming pitchers or drafting best ball leagues that specifically reward those top performances. 

I knew in order to make it more prevalent, and therefore applicable as a roto category, I would have to expand the parameters. There are just not enough money starts to change an entire industry. So I looked back at the aforementioned piece and why something like the 7 IP/3 ER outcome was disallowed. It turns out it failed because of winning percentage (see table below). That specific outcome had one of the lowest win conversion percentages on the quality start board. So I eliminated it.

 7+ IP
3 ER
EVENTS
WIN %
7+ IP
3 ER
201710742.99%
20187738.96%
20197130.99%
20201850.00%

The first mistake I made was attaching the win in the first place, and perhaps an argument could be made to include this 7 IP/3 ER outcome as a money start in the future. Removing this distorted lens of wins brings new clarity, leaving the sole focus on what should matter most: Performance. Seven-plus innings of work allowing no more than three runs yields an ERA no higher than 3.86. This would generally place a pitcher roughly in the top quarter percentile among relevant starters, a perfectly acceptable benchmark for a performance-based reward. Having simply shifted focus away from wins and toward ERA seems to offer us an immediate solution for our issue of occurrence.

The second issue with money starts as a category emerges above: The arbitrary assignment of seven innings as a prerequisite. Again, I’m glad I did this work and that the stat exists as constituted; it’s incredibly important to identify distance in today’s environment. However, I realize now I should have taken a step back for a broader perspective. Before indiscriminately excluding anything under 7 IP, I should have measured it up historically against the field. If the best starts have two aspects (distance and runs), then each should stand on its own as a test of its validity. Let’s take a look at where going at least 6 IP slots a pitcher purely from a distance standpoint compared to the field since 2017.

 TOTAL
GS
TOTAL
+6IP
TOTAL
+6IP (%)
20174860244150.23%
20184862227546.79%
20194858208542.92%
202092057262.17%

The total of outings of at least 6 IP outings is 47.6% over 15,500 games started, so I’m ignoring the anomalous 62% in the shortened 2020. Each sufficient full-season sample shows a steady and noteworthy 4% decline year-over-year in such outings. It’s clear to me now that 6 IP should qualify, providing the earned runs are in check. Let’s take a closer look at ERA by distance/run outcome after six innings pitched.

 6.0 IP6.1 IP6.2 IP
0 ER0.000.000.00
1 ER1.501.421.35
2 ER3.002.842.70
3 ER4.504.264.05

From this table, we get a good visualization of how impactful the extra run allowed is when compared to an extra out or even inning. If we’re trying to set apart the best starts, it feels natural to lop off the bottom row and any ERAs above 4.00 with it. This not only coincides with our earlier assertions, but it also keeps the integrity of our desired results in place. It also adds four more distance/run outcomes to our total as we try to create a greater parity of occurrence to wins. Let’s check how frequently these ‘’New Quality Starts’’ (the previous including ERAs over 4.00 are no longer quality) occurred. Ignore the unimaginative name for now.

 6+ IP
0-2 ER
7+ IP
3 ER
NEW
QUALITY
STARTS
NEW
QUALITY
STARTS (%)
2017905107101220.82%
201893477101120.79%
20198377190818.69%
20202761829431.96%

The first thing that jumps out for me is the sheer relative mass of the sample. I’m kicking myself for having missed this in the past. This is so critical to the weight of our current claim — one of the major counterpoints to replacing the win being the necessity for sufficient results.

Let’s add our performance-based new quality starts to money starts in order to create the “plus start” and see how they stack up to total wins. This is the stat we want to be focusing on as roto players.

 TOTAL
SP WINS
MONEY
STARTS
NEW
QUALITY
STARTS
PLUS
STARTS
2017164078910121801
2018151575110111762
201914496459081553
2020469173294467

Wow. 

I would leave a bunch of blank spaces if I knew you’d think that meant I was speechless. Why? Well, we’ve managed to take a half-century-old, flawed stat with an excessive (but universally accepted) failure rate and replace it with a 100% performance-backed metric; All without diminishing the supply. In fact, we actually would have been able to produce anywhere from an extra 7% to 16% of desired outcomes, again, every one of which based on performance.

As if this couldn’t be any more impactful, it also completely removes errors from the fantasy game. We all know unearned runs don’t affect ERA, but they often impact the decision. Well, we can easily remove this as well with a simple categorical shift.

A great lawyer once wrote that to win an argument, you have to anticipate the opposition’s counter and be ready for it:

  • We’ve highlighted the flaws in the win’s accounting, susceptibility to outside variables and the frequency at which it misfires. Each of these failings is in stark contrast to the pure performance base of the plus start.
  • Then we were told quality starts happen too often, and money starts don’t happen often enough. Well, we cleared that hurdle as well with the plus start. We not only matched the total, but we replaced the existing undeserved wins with premium outings.
  • The final place for purists to hide is in that dark corner called tradition. Sometimes the loudest argument is ‘’Because it’s always been that way!’’ Well, I’m sorry to say, but that’s the last wobbly leg you have to stand on. There’s quite literally not a single reason, outside of stubborn pride, to continue using the win in fantasy baseball. Embrace the categorical shift, or kindly refute this argument.

In conclusion, the plus start is the quality start minus a single outcome of 6 IP/3 ER (but if I said it that way it would have been no fun). I mentioned at the outset that sometimes in a building rip-out the finished product may resemble the original, except with a renewed confidence in what’s behind the walls. I hope I have given you the confidence to demand change. If you get blowback for your efforts, tell them you have the receipts and show them this article.

Thanks again for following along, I would love your feedback at @MLBMovingAvg.

July update:

My oh my, how the time does fly! Welcome back. I truly appreciate all the incredible support as we take this wild ride together through the 2021 MLB season. Thank you sincerely for picking up what I’ve been putting down; we’ve not only made money, but we’re having fun doing it. We closed the first half up over 8% profit year to date on FTN Bets, and an incredible +8,000% (yes, you read that correctly) on Jock Market.

Sign up to JockMKT and get a free match up to $50 using promocode FTN

Time is always of the essence in-season, so let’s get right down to business. We’re already at the All-Star break, with half of the season in the books. When we last met, I left you with my best argument to replace fantasy baseball’s most flawed categorical stat, the win. I also promised you I would revisit our new Plus Quality Start during the recess to offer perspective on how categories could (or should) look. Remember, the Plus Quality Start removes all subjective basis from calculation with a sufficient benchmark for distance but also for ERA not provided in the current construct.

If you’re unfamiliar with any of the rationale or mathematics behind this exercise, I invite you to read the full article above or check out my video presentation from the most recent PitchCon event Lose The Win. I understand asking the public to structurally change a 50-year-old game is a tall ask. However, I believe in the strength of this case. It can impact positive change by not only making the game more “fair,” but having it more properly reflect the quality of the analysis, outcomes and subsequent decisions we spend countless hours agonizing over. 

So for your viewing pleasure, here is your custom MLBMA Plus Quality Start leaderboards for 2021 so far:

Player, 2021WINSEXISTING 
QS
PLUS QUALITY
STARTS
(QS+)
Difference in 
W - QS+
(Higher the total, luckier the SP)
Martin Perez7325
Alex Cobb6324
Aaron Civale10773
Julio Urias10873
Steven Matz7443
Tyler Mahle7443
Brad Keller6433
Johnny Cueto6433
Tarik Skubal5423
Bruce Zimmermann3203
Mitch Keller3003
Nathan Eovaldi9772
Jack Flaherty8762
Dylan Cease7552
Frankie Montas7752
Drew Smyly6542
Eduardo Rodriguez6542
Mike Minor6442
Adrian Houser5332
Justus Sheffield5332
Griffin Canning4322
Jameson Taillon4322
John Gant4222
Kenta Maeda4222
Spencer Turnbull4422
Jake Odorizzi3112
Jeff Hoffman3112
Matt Harvey3112
Shane McClanahan3212
Chase Anderson2002
Josh Fleming2102
Kohei Arihara2002
Paolo Espino2002
Ryan Weathers2002
Anthony DeSclafani9981
Lance Lynn8871
Alex Wood7661
Charlie Morton7761
Chris Flexen7761
Hyun Jin Ryu7861
Jose Berrios7761
Nick Pivetta7661
Taijuan Walker7661
Aaron Nola6751
Lance McCullers Jr.6651
Luis Garcia6551
Rich Hill6551
Jake Arrieta5441
Zach Davies5441
Adbert Alzolay4431
Corey Kluber4331
Erick Fedde4331
J.A. Happ4331
Logan Webb4431
Madison Bumgarner4331
Vladimir Gutiérrez4431
Blake Snell3221
Cristian Javier3321
Dane Dunning3221
Kwang Hyun Kim3221
Ross Stripling3221
Trevor Williams3221
Cody Poteet2111
Wily Peralta2111
Zach Thompson2211
Aaron Sanchez1001
Alec Mills1001
Anthony Kay1001
Bailey Ober1001
Chase De Jong1001
Daniel Ponce de Leon1001
Dinelson Lamet1001
Eli Morgan1001
Jesus Luzardo1101
Julio Teheran1001
Justin Dunn1001
Kohl Stewart1001
Kyle Muller1001
Logan Allen1001
Matt Manning1001
Max Kranick1001
Michael Fulmer1001
Michael Kopech1001
Spenser Watkins1001
Triston McKenzie1001
Kyle Hendricks1012100
Dallas Keuchel6660
Lucas Giolito6860
Robbie Ray61160
Framber Valdez5650
Jon Gray5750
Max Fried5650
Patrick Corbin5750
Chris Paddack4540
Danny Duffy4440
Garrett Richards4440
Huascar Ynoa4440
James Kaprielian4540
Jordan Lyles4640
Brady Singer3530
Ryan Yarbrough3530
Vince Velasquez3330
Brett Anderson2220
Bryse Wilson2220
Jon Lester2220
Jorge Lopez2320
Logan Gilbert2220
Luke Weaver2220
Patrick Sandoval2220
Jakob Junis1110
Kolby Allard1210
Matt Peacock1110
Michael Wacha1110
Randy Dobnak1110
Riley Smith1110
Sammy Long1110
Stephen Strasburg1110
Tony Santillan1110
Trevor Cahill1110
Wil Crowe1110
Mike Fiers0100
Aaron Ashby0000
Adam Plutko0000
Adrián Morejón0000
Alec Bettinger0000
Alex Young0000
Andrew Kittredge0000
Austin Voth0000
Braxton Garrett0000
Brent Honeywell Jr.0000
Brent Suter0000
Cal Quantrill0000
Chris Archer0000
Cody Ponce0000
Collin McHugh0000
Conner Menez0000
Corbin Martin0000
Corey Oswalt0000
Craig Stammen0000
Daniel Castano0000
Daniel Lynch0000
Danny Coulombe0000
David Hale0000
David Phelps0000
David Price0000
Deivi Garcia0000
Derek Holland0000
Drew Rasmussen0000
Drew Smith0000
Edwin Uceta0000
Elieser Hernandez0000
Erik Swanson0000
Ervin Santana0000
Garrett Cleavinger0000
Griffin Jax0000
Hyeon-jong Yang0000
Jackson Kowar0000
Jake Faria0000
James Paxton0000
Jefry Rodriguez0000
Jerad Eickhoff0000
Jesse Chavez0000
Jhoulys Chacin0000
Jimmy Lambert0000
Jimmy Nelson0000
Joey Lucchesi0000
John Curtiss0000
Jon Duplantier0000
Jordan Holloway0000
Jordan Yamamoto0000
Jose De Leon0000
Jose Quintana0000
Jose Suarez0000
Junior Guerra0000
Keegan Akin0000
Keegan Thompson0000
Kyle Funkhouser0000
Kyle Wright0000
Kyle Zimmer0000
Lewis Thorpe0000
Ljay Newsome0000
Luis Patino0000
Matt Moore0000
Michael King0000
Miguel Castro0000
Miguel Diaz0000
Miguel Yajure0000
Miles Mikolas0000
Nate Pearson0000
Nestor Cortes Jr.0000
Nick Margevicius0000
Nick Neidert0000
Nick Nelson0000
Paul Campbell0000
Phil Maton0000
Robert Dugger0000
Robert Gsellman0000
Robert Stock0000
Ross Detwiler0000
Ryan Burr0000
Ryan Castellani0000
Sam Hentges0000
Scott Kazmir0000
Seth Frankoff0000
Spencer Howard0000
T.J. Zeuch0000
Tanner Houck0000
Tanner Roark0000
Taylor Hearn0000
Thomas Eshelman0000
Tommy Hunter0000
Tommy Milone0000
Tony Gonsolin0000
Travis Bergen0000
Travis Lakins0000
Trent Thornton0000
Tyler Alexander0000
Tyler Ivey0000
Tylor Megill0000
Victor Gonzalez0000
Wade LeBlanc0000
Wes Benjamin0000
Zac Lowther0000
Zack Godley0000
Zack Littell0000
Clayton Kershaw91110-1
Carlos Rodon788-1
Shane Bieber7118-1
Austin Gomber687-1
Jose Urquidy677-1
Ian Anderson586-1
Joe Musgrove576-1
Joe Ross576-1
Merrill Kelly576-1
Andrew Heaney455-1
Domingo German455-1
JT Brubaker465-1
Shohei Ohtani465-1
Tyler Anderson465-1
Zach Plesac455-1
Eric Lauer344-1
Jordan Montgomery364-1
Michael Pineda344-1
Matt Shoemaker233-1
Dustin May122-1
Kris Bubic122-1
Kyle Freeland122-1
Sonny Gray132-1
Taylor Widener122-1
Zac Gallen122-1
J.C. Mejia011-1
Johan Oviedo021-1
Tucker Davidson021-1
Chris Bassitt91111-2
Zack Greinke81010-2
Trevor Rogers799-2
Cole Irvin698-2
Sean Manaea698-2
Wade Miley688-2
Yusei Kikuchi6118-2
Casey Mize5107-2
Carlos Martinez476-2
Alek Manoah244-2
Chad Kuhl244-2
Jose Urena244-2
Chi Chi Gonzalez133-2
Marco Gonzales133-2
Caleb Smith022-2
Dean Kremer022-2
Trevor Bauer81411-3
Adam Wainwright71010-3
Freddy Peralta71010-3
Jacob deGrom71010-3
Max Scherzer71010-3
Yu Darvish71010-3
Marcus Stroman6109-3
Tyler Glasnow598-3
John Means477-3
Luis Castillo376-3
Matthew Boyd366-3
Antonio Senzatela265-3
David Peterson265-3
Dylan Bundy154-3
Gerrit Cole81212-4
Walker Buehler81412-4
German Marquez71211-4
Mike Foltynewicz276-4
Kevin Gausman81313-5
Corbin Burnes499-5
Pablo Lopez499-5
Brandon Woodruff71313-6
Kyle Gibson61212-6
Zack Wheeler61312-6
Zach Eflin3109-6
Sandy Alcantara51312-7

Top 10 in 2021 wins:

Top 10 in 2021 plus quality starts:

Top 10 “luckiest” starting pitchers by difference in wins and QS+:

Top 10 “unluckiest” starting pitchers by difference in wins and QS+:

In my not so humble opinion, the last two leaderboards really say more about the quality of the pitcher being rewarded/punished than I ever could by ranting for another five hundred words. Decide for yourself which should be rewarded, and while you’re at it, what the current definition of pitcher wins even represents for that matter.

I implore you to show this to your leaguemates and commissioners. Ask them if they do not feel it is a more honest representation of our intentions and skill as analysts and fantasy baseball players.

Thanks so much for spending your precious time with us here at FTNFantasy. Good luck in the second half, and let’s take Plus Quality Starts to the moon!