The Fantasy Football Report for Wild Card Weekend

The NFL’s Wild Card weekend means another opportunity to play some fantasy football. That means draft-and-hold postseason fantasy football leagues, DFS, salary cap formats, playoff challenge contests and one-and-done contests. Regardless of which format you’re in, we have you covered here at FTN. Like we do every week in the Report, let’s break down every game from all fantasy angles below.

Las Vegas @ Cincinnati Joe Burrow was the hero of the fantasy football playoffs, with two massive performances that nearly single-handedly won folks their championships. While it’s easy to remember those games, let’s not forget Burrow was essentially unplayable in Weeks 9-14. Of course, one of those games was against this Raiders team in Week 11 when Burrow threw for just 157 yards and a score. Of course, Joe Mixon had himself a day in that one with 30 carries for 123 yards and two scores. The Raiders were the No. 3 fantasy matchup for running backs in the regular season, so it wouldn’t be shocking if it was another big day for Mixon.

On the other side, Josh Jacobs has emerged as a true feature back for Vegas down the stretch. He’s touched the ball at least 20 times in each of his last three games with over 100 yards on the ground in Weeks 16 and 18. Cincinnati isn’t quite as good of a matchup, but they did allow the 11th-most fantasy points to running backs in the regular season. The Raiders will need to use a heavy dose of Jacobs if they want to have a shot at the upset.

PrizePicks Play : Josh Jacobs over 56.5 rushing yards

New England @ Buffalo In two games against the Bills, Damien Harris rushed 28 times for 214 yards and four touchdowns. Rhamondre Stevenson was sidelined for the Pats’ Week 16 contest against the Bills, but he did carry the ball 24 times for 78 yards against the Bills in Week 13. In other words, expect a ton of this duo Saturday night. To be fair, the Week 13 game was heavily impacted by weather, causing the Patriots to run heavy 22-personnel and only attempt three passing attempts. While this one will be cold, weather shouldn’t be a factor otherwise. Expect New England to rotate series with Stevenson and Harris. The latter is the slightly better play, but it’s very close.

We can all but guarantee a shadow from J.C. Jackson on Stefon Diggs in this one. Jackson traveled with Diggs in both regular-season contests. In Week 13, Diggs managed just two catches on four targets for 32 yards against Jackson. Of course, the weather was a factor there. In the rematch, Diggs got the better of Jackson, posting five catches on nine targets for 69 yards and a score in Jackson’s coverage. Regardless, this is a tough matchup for Diggs. Jackson is allowing a 49% catch rate on the season and has emerged as a true star in the New England secondary.

PrizePicks Play : Rhamondre Stevenson over 36.5 rushing yards

Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay At this point, it’s hard to remember what life was like without Tom Brady in the playoffs. The all-time great is coming off a massive regular season where he posted the third-most passing yards in NFL history along with 43 passing scores. Of course, his wide receiver corps has thinned out with Chris Godwin out for the season and Antonio Brown just out. That leaves Mike Evans , who will almost certainly see a shadow from Darius Slay . Evans saw Slay on 58% of his routes in Week 6 and managed a disappointing two catches on three targets for 27 yards in his coverage.

There’s a potential for shadow coverage on the other side of this one as well. The Bucs are back to full strength in their secondary with Carlton Davis , Sean Murphy-Bunting and Jamel Dean projected to start. Davis has shadowed in four of the Bucs last five games and is allowing a lowly 53% catch rate on the year. His average of 0.22 fantasy points allowed per route covered is well below the league average of 0.28. Expect him to travel with Smith in this one. While that does put a cap on Smith’s fantasy outlook, his prize picks line of 40.5 is just too low. He’s topped that line in each of his last three games, including last week when he needed just three catches to do so.

PrizePicks Play : DeVonta Smith over 40.5 receiving yards

San Francisco @ Dallas Elijah Mitchell was one of this year’s biggest fantasy surprises. While injuries did hamper him at various points in the season, Mitchell proved to be a workhorse when he was healthy. He averaged 18.8 rushing attempts per game in the regular season and topped 20 carries in each of his last five games. Expect a heavy dose of Mitchell in this one, but it’s far from a good matchup. Dallas allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs in the regular season.

Like Joe Burrow , Dak Prescott was flat for a good portion of the middle of the season. From Week’s 11-15, he ranked just 17th among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring with just five passing scores over those five games. And like Burrow, he exploded down the stretch. Prescott tossed 12 scores over the final three weeks of the season and was the No. 1 fantasy quarterback over that stretch.

PrizePicks Play : CeeDee Lamb over 57.5 receiving yards

Pittsburgh @ Kansas City There just wasn’t enough time for Clyde Edwards-Helaire to get ready for this one, so the Chiefs back won’t play Sunday. That means we can expect a ton of Darrel Williams this weekend. While he was a bit of a disappointment in the season finale, Williams did see a heavy workload in Week 17 against Cincinnati with 17 touches for 107 scrimmage yards and two scores. He has one of the best matchups of the weekend with Pittsburgh coming off an ugly regular season against the run. Opposing backfields averaged a massive 4.99 yards per carry against the Steelers. That’s the highest in the league.

Of course, injury also impacts the other side of this one. Najee Harris is dealing with an elbow injury but is expected to play. The rookie saw a massive 381 touches in the regular season and finished as fantasy’s No. 3 running back. He figures to be heavily involved regardless of gamescript and does have a favorable draw. While the Chiefs defense performed well against the pass, they weren’t as effective against the run. Opposing backs racked up a hefty 4.65 yards per carry against Kansas City in the regular season.

PrizePicks Play : Mecole Hardman over 6 fantasy points

Arizona @ LA Rams Kyler Murray has a reputation for showing up in big games, and he’ll get his first crack at doing so in the NFL playoffs Monday night. Murray has one of the highest fantasy ceilings of any player in the league, but his last outing against the Rams was somewhat disappointing. In that contest, he did throw for 383 yards, but managed zero passing scores. He somewhat bailed out his fantasy line with 61 rushing yards, but it was a lackluster fantasy day. Murray won’t have DeAndre Hopkins in this one, but he has gotten into a very nice groove with TE Zach Ertz . Since Ertz joined the team in Week 7, only Mark Andrews , George Kittle and Travis Kelce had more fantasy points among tight ends.

It’s quite remarkable that Cam Akers managed to get back on the field in Week 18. Despite the feel-good nature of this story, this is still very clearly Sony Michel ’s backfield. Michel has topped 20 carries in four of his last six games, including against the Cards in Week 14 when he put up 79 yards on four carries. As for Cooper Kupp , the Rams wideout is in a great spot here. He gets to face Antonio Hamilton out of the slot and comes in with the highest matchup rating in the FTN WR/CB Matchups Tool .

PrizePicks Play : Kyler Murray over 18 fantasy points

The Fantasy Football Report for Wild Card Weekend

Las Vegas @ Cincinnati

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