Jeff Ratcliffe's 2021 Fantasy Football Draft Plan

Before I started working in the fantasy industry, I was a good fantasy player. Good, but not great. Sure, I did all the research before my drafts and stayed on top of news – which was no small feat back in the late-90s and early-2000s – but there was something missing. Something wrong. Something off. I just couldn’t get over the hump and win fantasy leagues. We’re talking a decade-plus without hoisting a single trophy. I was like the Washington Generals of fantasy football.

It got so bad that on my wedding day, my best man gave a 15-minute speech that focused solely on my complete inability to win in fantasy football. I’m not kidding. He regaled the guests with stories of my many misfortunes including losing by a point when Brian Westbrook kneeled on the one-yard line against the Cowboys in December of 2007. There isn’t a gif or emoji in the world that could accurately sum up how I felt when he didn’t go in the end zone.

But you know what? It wasn’t Westbrook or any other NFL player that was to blame for my lack of trophies on the mantle. That was all my fault, and the main culprit was my draft strategy and roster management tendencies. See, I tended to draft high-floor fantasy options who were safe. But in drafting these safe players, I was essentially safely losing my league.

You can’t be afraid of striking out. It’s going to happen, especially in fantasy football. But if you don’t swing for the fences with high upside players, you limit your chances of taking down the league title. Fourth place is no better than last place, so you might as well go for the gusto. That means drafting players with the highest fantasy ceilings.

But what’s the best fantasy football draft strategy? I get asked this question all the time. There’s no shortage of strategies out there. You have value-based drafting, tier-based drafting, zero-RB, zero-WR, late-round quarterback and others I’m probably forgetting. Despite all of these methods, the best approach is to be as flexible as possible with the aim of drafting the best possible player with each of your picks.

Easier said than done, I know. But this is where preparation comes into play. Fantasy football is a game of information. Knowing more than your opponents gives you an edge. You’re not going to get that edge by showing up and drafting from a set of rankings that you found in a magazine or downloaded from your website of choice, even if it’s FTN Fantasy .

Don’t get me wrong — Those rankings certainly serve a purpose. Industry rankings give you a baseline of how to value players against each other. But I’m going to let you in on a secret. Fantasy analysts don’t know everything. I know some of you on Twitter are well aware of this fact, but there are a lot of fantasy drafters out there who treat rankings like gospel. They’re not, which is why you see such a wide range of differences among the many rankers in the fantasy industry.

Instead of just blindly following someone else’s rankings, I recommend using industry rankings to create your own draft board. NFL teams build draft boards, and so should you. People are often surprised when I tell them that I draft off just one sheet at fantasy drafts. This streamlined approach takes some work on the front end to put into place, but it eliminates a lot of the clumsiness many of us experience flipping back and forth between papers, magazines and websites on draft day.

There’s no precise science to building a fantasy draft board, but where I like to start is by establishing a set of overall rankings. You can use the overall rankings from your favorite industry analyst, or put together your own. The do-it-yourself crowd may want to start by position. Ranking players by position isn’t the most difficult exercise. You don’t need a complex algorithm like the one I use to power my projection model. You can simply go through and ask yourself who you like more: Player A or Player B? However, combining these positional lists into a set of overall rankings can be a bit more challenging. Of course, you can take the same approach of Player A or Player B, but it’s often difficult finding that precise spot to splice your positional lists together.

Instead, I prefer to take a value-based approach to establishing an overall set of rankings. Value-based drafting is an old idea in fantasy sports. In essence, a player’s fantasy value is not based on the total points he’s projected to score, but rather the points he’s projected to score over the value of replacement at his position. There are a number of ways to establish the replacement-level baseline for each position, but once you establish replacement level points, simply subtract that number from the player’s projected points and you have his value score. Sort value scores from largest to smallest and you have your starting spot for overall rankings.

At this point, it’s a good idea to give your rankings a close look. The value scores are a solid starting spot, but you may notice places in your overall rankings that need tweaking. Go ahead and move players around as you see fit. Remember, this is your draft board. Also, as you go through the list, you’re going to notice natural breaking points. Make note of these as you see them. They’re going to ultimately be your tier dividing lines.

With the rankings polished, the next step is to establish your tiers. Since this is a draft board, you’re going to want to think of your tiers in a round-by-round basis. However, don’t feel like you need to put the precise number of players in each round tier. If you’re in a 12-team league and only feel like there are 10 players whom you would take in the first round, then only put those players in your Round 1 tier. The same thing applies if you happen to like 15 players in the second round.

The way I order my draft board visually is with positions in the columns and rounds in the rows. From there, I establish which players I like the most in the tier and list them at the top. For the first five rounds, I’ll list players in the exact order of my overall rankings. That gives a list of roughly 60 players to start. Beyond that point, I’ll often have players from different positions with the same grades in the round. This allows for a little flexibility in the middle and later rounds in order to fill out positions of need. However, to start things out, I recommend exhausting your first four rounds. In most cases, you’ll find that you’re still drafting from this list well into the sixth round and perhaps longer.

So to come full circle to my original answer to the best draft strategy, using this approach will force you to draft the best players regardless of their position. Today, I’m going to give you my actual 2021 fantasy football draft board. You can use this to help build your own board and make sure the nightmare situation above doesn’t happen to you this year.

Before we get to the actual board, here are few tips to keep in mind that will help you dominate your draft:

Draft for value, and don’t reach. You put your board in place based on how your value players. You would pay more than asking price for a cup of coffee, so why do it for a player in your draft? Stick to the plan and don’t deviate on draft day. Your opponents are going to make mistakes and let value slip to you. Make them pay for it. There are no “must draft” or “must avoid” players . Even though you may really like certain players, look at the first tip. Don’t reach for these guys. It’s a mistake that allows value to slip to your opponent. Likewise, there are no “must avoid” players. Only players to avoid at certain ADPs. However, there’s a point in drafts where these guys will become values if they stick around on the board. You don’t need Patrick Mahomes to win your league . Sure, he’s very nice to have, but Mahome will go much earlier than it’s worth drafting a quarterback in 1QB leagues. “But you don’t understand. Everyone in my home league drafts quarterbacks very early.” That’s fine. You don’t have to drink the Kool Aid. Follow your board and you’ll still end up getting value. Ceiling is more important than floor . If you’re faced with a decision between two players, choose the player with the higher ceiling. For example, David Johnson and A.J. Dillon are often picked in the same area of the draft. If you had to choose between the two, the better option is Dillon. Sure, his floor is much lower, but Dillon’s massive upside gives him the greater potential to be a fantasy difference maker. With these tips in mind, let’s dive into the draft plan and strategy for each position in this year’s drafts. If you’d like a copy of my personal fantasy football draft board, you can find it in the 2021 Fantasy Football Game Plan .

Rounds 1-5 It’s easy to sit here and tell you that you should draft Christian McCaffrey or Dalvin Cook , but that advice isn’t going to do you any good if you end up with a pick at the tail end of a snake draft. Instead, I encourage you to put together a strong set of overall rankings.

In a 12-team league, I recommend covering five rounds of the draft, which equates to roughly 60 players. To get you started, here are my top 60 players. This is a balanced set of rankings that can be applied to all fantasy formats. However, you can also check out our fantasy football rankings page to get my PPR, non-PPR and 0.5 PPR rankings.

Rk Player Pos Rk Player Pos 1 Christian McCaffrey RB 31 David Montgomery RB 2 Dalvin Cook RB 32 Mike Evans WR 3 Alvin Kamara RB 33 Josh Jacobs RB 4 Derrick Henry RB 34 Miles Sanders RB 5 Ezekiel Elliott RB 35 CeeDee Lamb WR 6 Aaron Jones RB 36 Amari Cooper WR 7 Saquon Barkley RB 37 Robert Woods WR 8 Davante Adams WR 38 Patrick Mahomes QB 9 Jonathan Taylor RB 39 Chris Godwin WR 10 Nick Chubb RB 40 D.J. Moore WR 11 Travis Kelce TE 41 Josh Allen QB 12 Tyreek Hill WR 42 Kyler Murray QB 13 Stefon Diggs WR 43 Julio Jones WR 14 Antonio Gibson RB 44 Diontae Johnson WR 15 Austin Ekeler RB 45 Lamar Jackson QB 16 Calvin Ridley WR 46 Tyler Lockett WR 17 DeAndre Hopkins WR 47 Cooper Kupp WR 18 Najee Harris RB 48 Jerry Jeudy WR 19 Joe Mixon RB 49 Kyle Pitts TE 20 Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB 50 James Robinson RB 21 DK Metcalf WR 51 Dak Prescott QB 22 Justin Jefferson WR 52 Gus Edwards RB 23 A.J. Brown WR 53 Tee Higgins WR 24 Keenan Allen WR 54 Brandon Aiyuk WR 25 Darren Waller TE 55 Aaron Rodgers QB 26 George Kittle TE 56 Damien Harris RB 27 Allen Robinson WR 57 T.J. Hockenson TE 28 Terry McLaurin WR 58 Mark Andrews TE 29 Chris Carson RB 59 Javonte Williams RB 30 D'Andre Swift RB 60 Adam Thielen WR The goal with this list is to draft for value with each of your picks until this list is completely exhausted. With the first few picks, it’s fine to just follow straight on down the list. However, you’ll need to have a sense of how your roster is starting to take shape as you make your picks in the fourth and fifth rounds.

Now, it should be noted that you can be flexible with this list. You don’t need to always draft the highest player. Let’s say you’re up in the fourth round and you have the choice of Josh Jacobs or Diontae Johnson . While Jacobs is technically ranked higher, you can certainly decide to build around the wideout in this spot if you like how Johnson fits your lineup better. Remember, flexibility is key.

Otherwise, keep drafting players off this list until the list is gone. You’ll notice there are just five quarterbacks listed and only two inside the top-30. Most, if not all, of these quarterbacks are likely to go before their ranking on this list. Don’t worry about that. There’s so much depth at quarterback that you’ll be able to find a solid option later in the draft.

As you select players from the top 60, don’t worry about bye weeks or players on the same team. These are little things that shouldn’t impact your decisions in the early rounds of a draft. All of the players in the top 60 are strong fantasy options, so just continue to load up on as many of them as you can.

It’s likely you’ll still have options from this list for the first six rounds, and perhaps even longer. Remember to keep a close eye on your roster construction and be prepared to switch gears if you get too overloaded at one position in the first five rounds. From here we’ll go by position to pinpoint the players I’m highlighting on my draft board and the round I’m comfortable selecting them based on current ADP data.

Quarterback You hear it every year, but you can wait at quarterback. I know, I know. Your league drafts quarterbacks earlier than fantasy industry types. But don’t worry. You’re still going to have plenty of strong options in the middle and late rounds.

We all know what Josh Allen did last season. But did you realize that he was often available after the first 10 quarterbacks were selected in drafts? Ryan Tannehill could have drafted in the 13th round as the 20th quarterback off the board. And Justin Herbert wasn’t even drafted in most leagues, and he steamrolled his way to a top-10 fantasy finish.

The depth at quarterback in today’s NFL is staggering. Last season, 21 signal callers threw for more than 4,000 yards and a 16 topped 25 touchdown passes. So even if your league drafts quarterbacks early, don’t take the bait.

Before we get into the middle- and late-round targets at the position, I think we should address the five quarterbacks in the top 60. While they are listed at their appropriate value in the top 60, I’m not comfortable taking any of these guys at market value. I’d really like to get at least two rounds of value on any of them. That means Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen would be targets in the fifth round. Those two will never make it that far. Likewise, you aren’t likely to see Kyler Murray , Lamar Jackson or Dak Prescott slide to the sixth/seventh in 12-team leagues. However, if you can get two rounds of value on any of the top 8-10 quarterbacks, be prepared to pounce. Otherwise, your best bet is to wait until the late rounds in 1QB leagues.

1QB League Strategy: Don’t draft a QB in the first five rounds. Get at least two rounds of value (and really more like three rounds of value) if you’re going to draft one of the top 8-10 quarterbacks. If not, wait until at least round 10 and draft one safe option and one upside option. Not two from either category. If you have five or fewer bench spots, only draft one quarterback.

Superflex/2QB strategy: If you play in 2QB leagues, the approach is slightly different. Simply wait until 10 quarterbacks have been drafted and then grab your signal callers in successive rounds. The goal is to get two quarterbacks ranked between 10 and 20. Then wait until 24 quarterbacks are drafted and select your third quarterback. Of these three quarterbacks, shoot for a combination of two safe options and one upside option. It’s okay to wait until the late rounds to draft your quarterback(s).

In a 1QB league, here’s who we can target by round:

Round 9-10: Matthew Stafford , Joe Burrow These guys may not slide this far, but there’s appeal to both in this range. Stafford offers major upside in Los Angeles, while Burrow has a fleet of young and impressive weapons in Cincinnati.

Round 11: Trevor Lawrence , Trey Lance Safe doesn’t describe Lawrence or Lance, but both are dripping with potential in this range. Lawrence has a fast-track to a starting job in Week 1, but Lance is far from a lock. However, he has the makings of a fantasy breakout if he’s able to wrestle the job away from Jimmy Garoppolo .

Rounds 12-13: Justin Fields , Matt Ryan , Baker Mayfield , Tua Tagovailoa If you miss out on the previous tier, this group offers two safety valves in Ryan and Mayfield along with two breakout candidates Tagovailoa and Fields. While Ryan and Mayfield aren’t league-winners, they come with high floors that can help you get through the beginning of the season while you work the wire. As for Tagovailoa, the Dolphins have surrounded him with talent. He has the potential to provide a healthy return on investment if he hits. Like with Lance, Fields isn’t a guaranteed starter early in the season, but his dual-threat ability is tailor made for fantasy. He’s a threat for top-12 numbers as soon as he’s a starter.

Rounds 14-16: Kirk Cousins , Ryan Fitzpatrick , Jameis Winston They aren’t sexy, but these three players could be hanging on the board for a long time. Cousins isn’t likely to win you any leagues, but he’s a safe option who you can get on the cheap Fitzpatrick is volatile, but he put up good numbers as a starter last season and has impressive weapons in Washington. Winston earned the starting job over Taysom Hill , but he is far from guaranteed to keep the gig.

Running back The top-60 rankings list above gets you through 23 running backs, but there are some interesting names just outside the top 60 who you can stockpile. Remember, draft for ceiling, not floor in the middle and late rounds of your drafts. Also, note that I will not be including every available player. If the player is not on this list of targets, it’s because I purposely left him off.

RB strategy: Anchor your rosters with one top-10 running back and then fade the position until the middle rounds. Avoid the RB dead zone. That means typically a running back in Round 1 and then not again until at least Round 6. You’re going to feel thin at the position and that’s OK. The goal is to build a less fragile lineup that is loaded up with high ceiling backs who we can get at a discount. It’s okay to feel like you’re thin at running back.

Rounds 6-7: Damien Harris , Javonte Williams , Trey Sermon , Michael Carter The upside wheelhouse in the draft comes in this range, and this is a great spot to target one or more of these guys especially if you punted your RB2 spot. Harris is in the driver’s seat to lead the run-heavy Pats’ offense and should see heavy volume in 2021. Williams has a shot to pass Melvin Gordon in short order, as does Sermon with Raheem Mostert in San Francisco. Carter is a bit polarizing right now, but his talent is tough to ignore. Despite opening the season in a committee, he’s a prime candidate for a second-half surge.

Rounds 8-9: A.J. Dillon , Tony Pollard , Leonard Fournette , Zack Moss This isn’t a great spot for running back value, but there are at least a few interesting options. Dillon will be the No. 2 in Green Bay, but he comes with premium handcuff value. Pollard showed No. 1 overall potential with Ezekiel Elliott out in Week 15 last year. Both Fournette and Moss are going to be polarizing. But these guys are both in full-blown committees and my read on the situation is that they’re both positioned to be the top options. Of course, if you disagree, you could look at Ronald Jones and Devin Singletary in this range.

Rounds 10-11: Kenyan Drake , Sony Michel , Alexander Mattison It gets ugly quick, but Drake should at least have some value in the passing game and offers handcuff potential. We don’t know what to expect out of Michel in Los Angeles, but he’s a great bargain in drafts right now. As for Mattison, it’s all about the handcuff value in Minnesota.

Round 12-16: Rhamondre Stevenson , Ty'Son Williams , Rashaad Penny , Tony Jones The value really falls off a cliff in the late rounds this year, but you can at least try taking a stab at high upside handcuffs.

Wide receiver In most scenarios, you’ll be sitting with at least three receivers after the first six rounds and possibly even more. From there, you’ll want to stockpile as much talent as you can at running back and wide receiver, focusing on high ceiling options.

As I mention above, you might end up with a backup quarterback or maybe a backup tight end. But you really want to fill your bench spots with backups at running back and wide receiver. Why? Well, to put it simply, you start more of them. Think about it. If you have two starting running backs, three wideouts and a flex, that’s a total of six, which is three times as many players as you start at quarterback and tight end combined in most league formats.

WR strategy: If you end up punting your second running back spot, then you’ll end up hammering wide receiver in the early rounds. Try to grab at least two top-12 options and at least four top-24 options. Zig while your opponents zag and you’ll be loaded with top-end talent at the position. In the middle and late rounds, focus on higher ceiling options as opposed to higher floor options.

Round 6-7: Odell Beckham , Chase Claypool , Ja'Marr Chase , Courtland Sutton , Tyler Boyd , Kenny Golladay , JuJu Smith-Schuster , Robby Anderson , Brandin Cooks , Deebo Samuel , Corey Davis , Laviska Shenault The value is strong at wide receiver up and down the board this year, and it starts with this group. Beckham, Chase, Sutton, Golladay, Samuel and Anderson offer major fantasy upside. Smith-Schuster and Boyd don’t quite have their ceiling, but both come with a healthy floor for a WR3. Both Davis and Shenault have been on the rise after good showings in the preseason. There’s a good chance at least some receivers in this group hang on the board even longer. Keep pulling from this list until they’re gone.

Rounds 8-9: DeVonta Smith , Michael Gallup , Will Fuller , Mike Williams , Antonio Brown , Marvin Jones , Marquez Callaway , D.J. Chark Here’s another sexy group of wideouts who offer major upside at a nice discount. Fuller and Smith offer high weekly ceilings, though both have questions at quarterback. The Jags duo of Jones and Chark should benefit from having Trevor Lawrence under center. Gallup and Brown are both the third receivers on their squads but come with major weekly upside. Callaway has a chance to emerge following an impressive preseason.

Rounds 10-11: Curtis Samuel , Michael Pittman , Jaylen Waddle , Rondale Moore , Elijah Moore , Jakobi Meyers , Mecole Hardman , Marquise Brown The value falls off just a bit at this point, but there’s still upside with guys like Pittman, Waddle, both Moores, Hardman and Brown. Samuel is a bit dinged up, but should be ready for the regular season.

We also have the chance to land a receiver who could lead the Pats in targets with Meyers.

Rounds 12-13: Henry Ruggs , Terrace Marshall , Gabriel Davis , Tre'Quan Smith , Bryan Edwards , Rashod Bateman Grip it and rip it. All six of these receivers offer big-time upside at a nice draft-day discount. This is one of the best spots to target upside at wide receiver in your drafts.

Rounds 14-16: Michael Thomas , Jalen Reagor , Tyrell Williams , Parris Campbell The upside continues in the last few rounds of your draft with guys like Reagor, Williams and Campbell. However, we do also have to address the elephant in the room with Michael Thomas . Given his being placed on the reserve/PUP, I’ve moved him significantly down my board. Rostering Thomas means he won’t do anything for your team until Week 7. That’s nearly half the fantasy football regular season.

Tight end The depth at tight end is almost nonexistent this year, so you may be tempted to grab one in the first three rounds. While I’m not going to talk you out of that approach, I rarely invest a pick that early in a onesie position. I’d rather start looking in the fifth round this year with someone like Kyle Pitts or T.J. Hockenson . Mark Andrews is the last of the top two ties as a sixth-round option.

TE strategy: Avoid overpaying for one of the top three options. Draft Pitts or Hockenson in the fifth if the value has dried up at wide receiver (which means the top 24 are off the board). If you miss on them, look at Andrews in the sixth or seventh. If you miss on him, consider Logan Thomas in the eighth. If you miss on him, punt the position into the late rounds. It’s okay to not trust your tight end.

Rounds 7-9: Logan Thomas , Tyler Higbee , Noah Fant , Jonnu Smith All four of these players will be on the board in this range. They all come with risks, but any one of these guys could put up top-5 production at the position and you don’t have to pay a hefty price for them.

Round 10-12: Dallas Goedert , Robert Tonyan , Mike Gesicki , Rob Gronkowski With Zach Ertz sticking around in Philly, Goedert’s arrow is pointing down. Don’t fall in love with Tonyan’s touchdown production from last year, but he’s still in a good spot to produce with Aaron Rodgers . Gesicki still drips with upside. Gronk is still Gronk, but his ceiling isn’t what it once was.

Rounds 13-16: Gerald Everett , Evan Engram , Cole Kmet , Hunter Henry , Blake Jarwin It’s going to be tough to grab a big-time breakout at tight end in the late rounds of your draft, but you can at least shoot for upside with these five players.

Team defense and kicker In most cases, these two positions should be your last two picks in the draft. Don’t waste a middle round pick on a defense because the top one picked rarely finishes as the first fantasy defense. Instead, pay attention to schedule. Sure, the Steelers are an impressive unit, but they also have to face the Bills in Week 1. Instead, opt for a team like the 49ers who play the Lions or the Panthers who face the Zach Wilson in his first professional start.

Likewise, Justin Tuck er is a fantastic kicker, but you don’t need him to win your league. In fact, if you have these positions in your league, you’re extremely likely to stream at some point in the year. It doesn’t make sense to expend draft capital on a pick that you’re ultimately going to end up cutting.

So there you have it. You’ll notice that my fantasy draft board presents a dynamic approach to drafting that doesn’t lock you into just one path. You have multiple options at each position to target throughout the various rounds. And hey, you might not agree with all of these picks. That’s fine, but the method is the most important takeaway here. You don’t want to lock yourself into just one player per round. If that player gets picked before you’re up, you run the risk of forcing a pick that you may regret. Instead, follow this approach and you’ll end up with a very strong team that will put you on the pathway to dominate your league.

Jeff Ratcliffe's 2021 Fantasy Football Draft Plan

This feature is only available to FTN Fantasy Premium Members Only

Rankings