Ladd McConkey – NFL Draft Sleeper Alert
Jay Felicio
Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Bears vs. Bills
Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 62.5 (-110) after it opened @ 63.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 70.7% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects Stefon Diggs to earn 8.6 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 91st percentile among WRs.
- Stefon Diggs has been a big part of his team’s passing attack, earning a Target Share of 28.8% this year, which puts him in the 95th percentile among WRs.
- Stefon Diggs has notched significantly more receiving yards per game (94.0) this year than he did last year (71.0).
Cons
- The Bills are a big 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the 3rd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in football.
- The Buffalo Bills offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards
66
Receiving Yards
