2023 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: ADP Rumblings (6/6)

Fantasy football drafts are just around the corner as we enter the dog days of summer. That means that more and more fantasy drafts are taking place (especially on sites like Underdog Fantasy), which is making ADP more and more clear. As more data comes in, we will get a better picture of players moving up or down based on training camp news.

All ADP data in this article comes from Underdog Fantasy, which is the greatest collection of data we have (with the caveat that some players may be higher or lower than other sites due to the importance of stacking and correlation). The players below represent values (or are being overdrafted) in early drafts this year. Check it out.

Daniel Jones, QB, New York Giants

ADP: 109.1 QB 14

Daniel Jones earned a 4-year, $160 million contract with his play in 2022. Jones completed 67.2% of his passes for 3,205 yards and 15 touchdowns with just five interceptions while adding 120 carries for 708 yards and seven rushing touchdowns. Jones was QB9 in fantasy points per game at the quarterback position (minimum 11 games played) with 18.4 points per week. It’s also worth noting that he accomplished this with a receiving corps featuring Darius Slayton, Richie James and Isaiah Hodgins for most of the season.

Despite that, he still finds himself at a realistic ADP in early fantasy drafts. Not only did the Giants show faith in Jones’ ability to lead the franchise, but they also spent the offseason trying to upgrade the talent around him. The Giants added Darren Waller in a trade, Parris Campbell in free agency and drafted both a wide receiver upgrade (Biletnikoff winner Jalin Hyatt) and arguably the best center in the NFL Draft (John Michael Schmitz). Rushing upside is such a commodity at the quarterback position for fantasy, and Jones offers excellent upside in an improved offense just one year after a top-10 finish in fantasy points per game.

Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Commanders (RB38)

ADP: 114.4 RB38

Fantasy managers were disappointed when the Washington Commanders added rushing competition to the backfield during the 2022 NFL Draft in the form of Alabama’s Brian Robinson. Robinson soaked up all the early down-rushing work and forced Antonio Gibson into a complementary role and splitting pass-catching opportunities with J.D. McKissic. And while we got a four-game stretch to start the season with Gibson as the lead back thanks to Robinson’s carjacking that resulted in a gunshot wound, that is how the workload worked out.

Gibson was productive in that four-game stretch, carrying the ball 53 times for 173 and two touchdowns while adding 13 receptions on 16 targets for 101 yards. When Robinson returned to health, Gibson was relegated to his change-of-pace role. Thankfully, he saw a spike in his fantasy value thanks to an injury to McKissic. Gibson finished the year with 46 receptions on 53 targets for 353 yards and two touchdowns. The veteran running back had at least three targets and two receptions in 14 of his 15 games played.

Gibson heads into the 2023 season with Robinson still soaking up the early down-rushing work but no more McKissic to siphon away targets in the passing game. The Commanders also hired Eric Beiniemy as their new offensive coordinator, which could give Gibson a boost in workload thanks to his explosive playmaking ability. His unique skill set and collegiate background as a wide receiver also should work in his favor in a new offense. Gibson is currently going off the board as RB38 in fantasy drafts, which seems too low given the lack of competition in the backfield (if Robinson misses any games) and his receiving upside.

Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns

ADP: 175.8 RB54

The Browns’ two-headed backfield of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt dominated touches again in 2022, which relegated Jerome Ford to a special teams role in his rookie season. Just one year later, Ford is sitting second on the depth chart after Cleveland opted to let Hunt (and veteran running back D’Ernest Johnson) hit free agency. While Ford won’t unseat Chubb anytime soon, he is poised to take on a significant role in Cleveland’s rushing attack in his second season.

Chubb has earned a snap share above 60% just one time in his career (2019), which was Hunt’s first season with the team. Conversely, Hunt never played fewer than 42% of the team’s offensive snaps during his four-year tenure with the team. Ford is poised to absorb the majority of Hunt’s vacated work, which makes him intriguing in fantasy.

Early fantasy drafters haven’t caught up to the depth chart yet (or are expecting a free-agent acquisition) since Ford is currently being drafted as RB54 in early drafts. Even if the Browns add to the running back room, Ford is a late-round gamble worth taking that could pay off in a big way if he does lock down the RB2 role in Cleveland.

Kadarius Toney, WR, Kansas City Chiefs 

ADP: 70.3 WR36

News blurbs and highlight videos have pushed Kadarius Toney up early draft boards with the veteran wide receiver coming off the board as WR36 in early fantasy drafts. And while it’s possible that Toney could finish second on the team in targets (behind Travis Kelce) in 2023, there are plenty of factors to be wary of before investing a fifth or sixth-round pick in Toney next season.

To start with the obvious, chronic soft-tissue injuries have limited Toney to just 19 of 34 games in his NFL career. Toney was already a wide receiver prospect when he came out of Florida, so the lack of game action hasn’t helped his development as a receiver. 45% of Toney’s receiving yardage comes out of a two-game stretch during his rookie season with the Giants when he had 16 receptions for 267 yards. While this shows a ceiling, it also shows how truly boom-or-bust he is as a player.

Additionally, his time with Kansas City reinforced the inconsistent nature of his role. Toney played in just seven regular season games with the Chiefs last season (he missed three games with an injury). During that time, he never logged a snap share above 44% and had just two games with four or more targets while remaining a situational/gadget player. According to FTN’s Advanced Stats, Toney had the lowest average depth of target (3.8) of any non-running back pass catcher on the team.

Sure, Toney could finally stay healthy and see his role expand in Kansas City. Or he could be what he has always been: an inconsistent, frequently hurt gadget player who can provide the occasional boom week between hamstring strains. At WR36 ADP, the cost may be a bit too high to find out.

Tyquan Thornton, WR, New England Patriots (WR77)

ADP: 177.6 WR77

Tyquan Thornton had an inconsistent rookie year, batting injuries and an incompetent offensive play-caller. Still, the surprising 2022 second-round pick finished with 22 receptions on 45 targets for 247 yards and two touchdowns. Thornton’s role as a field stretcher isn’t always the most lucrative for fantasy football, but there are reasons to be optimistic about him in his second season.

For one, the Patriots hired a legitimate offensive coordinator this offseason when they pried Bill O’Brien out of the college ranks and back to the Patriots. O’Brien failed as a head coach but has had success calling plays in the NFL and has the ability to design ways to get the ball to New England’s most explosive playmaker. Additionally, the Patriots let their most targeted player (Jakobi Meyers) walk in free agency, replacing him with JuJu Smith-Schuster and nothing else.

Thornton is likely a “better in best ball” pick thanks to his role as an inconsistent field stretcher (deeper targets mean more ways that passes can fall incomplete). However, there’s a non-zero chance that Thornton can lead this team in targets competing with DeVante Parker, Kendrick Bourne and Smith-Schuster, and he has the game-breaking ability to score any time he touches the ball. That’s a gamble worth taking in the 14th round of fantasy drafts.

Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals 

ADP: 202.5 TE27

Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore have seen their ADP climb now that the Cardinals have officially released DeAndre Hopkins. However, one player whose ADP has remained relatively static is projected starting tight end Trey McBride. That probably shouldn’t be the case.

McBride was a second-round pick in the 2022 draft and saw inconsistent reps on offense to start his career with Zach Ertz in the fold. Then, Ertz tore his ACL in Week 10, which allowed McBride an opportunity to see the field. From Weeks 10-18, McBride had at least a 73% snap share for the Cardinals in every game. He averaged 4.5 targets, 3.3 receptions and 30.1 receiving yards during that stretch. Tight ends notoriously take time to acclimate to the NFL, but McBride seemed comfortable with an expanded role in the offense.

While Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore will undoubtedly see their roles grow in 2023 without Hopkins, McBride finds himself in an even better situation in the team’s passing attack. Ertz will miss time to start the season as he recovers from a knee injury, and the Cardinals will likely be starting a backup quarterback while Kyler Murray works his way back from his own ACL tear. Historically, tight ends see their production increase (thanks to check-downs) when lesser quarterbacks are under center. Arizona has arguably the worst defense in the league and will need to pass to stay in games, providing plenty of targets for their pass-catchers.

McBride is being severely under-drafted in early fantasy drafts given his role in a pass-heavy offense that just lost a target hog wide receiver. There aren’t many ways that he will fail to meet his current ADP, but plenty of avenues for him to exceed the low bar he’s currently being drafted at.