Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
It’s time to look ahead to the 2023 NFL season! Follow along with all our fantasy football team offseason roundups here.
It’s been a very busy NFL offseason, with free agent signings, coaching changes and several new players entering the league via the NFL Draft. As we prepare for the 2023 fantasy football season, it’s critical to have a full understanding of each team’s offseason moves. Our NFL team roundup series today covers the Miami Dolphins.
2023 NFL Team Roundup: Miami Dolphins
2022 Results
Record: 9-8; 2nd in the AFC East
Season End: Lost 34-31 at the Buffalo Bills in the Wild Card Round
Miami Dolphins Offseason Summary
Draft
2.51: Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
3.84: Devon Achane, RB, Texas A&M
6.197: Elijah Higgins, TE, Stanford
7.238: Ryan Hayes, T, Michigan
Cam Smith, CB (2.51)
The Dolphins made just four draft picks in 2023 after trading two for Tyreek Hill last offseason and losing another for violating the league’s tampering rules. And the first of those, Cam Smith, may not play much in his rookie season behind All-Pro outside corners Xavien Howard and Jalen Ramsey. But that timeline might also suit Smith, who scouts see as a standout athlete and build for the position with room to develop his technique.
Devon Achane, RB (3.84)
Devon Achane slipped further than I expected in the draft after he lapped the field at his position with a 4.32-second combine 40 time. But he also landed in the perfect offense for his skill set in Miami. Achane’s speed should stretch the field horizontally and open up space for his receiver teammates to rack up yards after the catch. And Achane has the potential to make his own impact as a receiver. He doubled up his common draft comp Jamaal Charles with a 15.0% versus an 8.4% college reception ratio.
Elijah Higgins, WR/TE (6.197)
Elijah Higgins had modest production in three seasons at Stanford, in particular with just six career touchdowns. But his 6-foot-3, 235-pound frame offers him the potential to develop in the red zone and perhaps even as a blocker if the Dolphins see him more as an F tight end prospect than as a wide receiver. I may be guilty of a Mike McDaniel halo effect. But Higgins seems dramatically more interesting on the Dolphins than he would be on most other teams.
Additions
Free agent additions: LB David Long, QB Mike White, WR Braxton Berrios, G Dan Feeney, LB Andrew Van Ginkel, T Isaiah Wynn, S DeShon Elliott, TE Eric Saubert, T Cedric Ogbuehi, WR Chosen Anderson, TE Tyler Kroft, LB Malik Reed, P Jake Bailey
Trade additions: CB Jalen Ramsey
Isaiah Wynn, T
The Dolphins swung and missed on a handful of Day 1 and 2 offensive line draft picks in Austin Jackson, Robert Hunt and Liam Eichenberg in 2020 and 2021. And their high-priced free agent left tackle solution Terron Armstead validated the public injury concern with four missed weeks because of myriad pectoral, hip, knee and toe injuries in 2022. The former first-rounder Isaiah Wynn is a low-cost bet at a $2.3 million salary. But the team needs either he or Jackson to play a starter-worthy right tackle or else they open the left-handed Tua Tagovailoa up to more blind-side hits.
Jalen Ramsey, CB
Byron Jones underwhelmed on his $82.5 million Dolphins contract, falling precipitously from 6.2 yards per target in 2019 to 10.6 and 8.1 in 2020 and 2021 and then missing 2022 with an Achilles injury. The 28-year-old Ramsey may be past his prime, as well. His yards-per-target average has trended up from 5.0 to 6.4 to 7.2 the last few seasons. But the Dolphins’ decision to trade for the two-time All-Pro clarifies their perceived timeline. They want to compete for a Super Bowl this season.
Mike White, QB
If everything goes to plan this season, Mike White will never see the field. But Tua Tagovailoa has missed time in all three of his professional seasons. A pessimist could wonder if the often-concussed starter is a bad hit away from the end of his career. White has a perfectly average 0.0% passing DVOA rate the last two seasons, which makes him dramatically more efficient than an average backup. But it would be interesting to see how he fit into an explosive downfield offense if he were pressed into duty. Since 2021, White has averaged more than a yard in the air less (6.8-yard aDOT vs. 8.1) than the man he will replace in Miami, the notoriously conservative Teddy Bridgewater.
Departures
LB Elandon Roberts, TE Mike Gesicki, WR Trent Sherfield, CB Byron Jones, QB Teddy Bridgewater, LB Melvin Ingram, TE Hunter Long, LT Eric Fisher, S Clayton Fejedelem, T Brandon Shell, S Eric Rowe, DT John Jenkins, P Thomas Morstead, G Michael Deiter, T Greg Little, TE Cethan Carter, TE Adam Shaheen, EDGE Trey Flowers, LB Sam Eguavoen, CB Trill Williams
Mike Gesicki, TE
Mike Gesicki would have seemed like more major a loss after he caught 73 passes for 780 yards in 2021. But the veteran tight end was a poor fit for head coach Mike McDaniel’s preferred wide zone scheme — he cannot block, and he does his best work before the catch. His departure for New England can only help his box scores. But it opens up a potential third receiver role in Miami, perhaps for a slot man like Braxton Berrios or for the hybrid rookie receiver/tight end Elijah Higgins.
Byron Jones, CB
Still just 30 years old, Byron Jones would not normally be a terrible bet for at least a moderate return to form in 2023. But as of February, Jones reported that he could not run or jump and suffered chronic pain because of the myriad injuries he suffered in his career. He may not have delivered the All-Pro standard the Dolphins expected when they signed him to his massive contract. But unfortunately, Jones appears to have seen the worse side of that deal.
Trent Sherfield, WR
Trent Sherfield was not a major part of the Dolphins offense in 2022 even as he set personal career highs of 30 catches and 417 yards. His departure seems most meaningful as a sign of growth for 40-year-old, second-year head coach Mike McDaniel. McDaniel leaned heavily on the familiar with Year 1 additions of Sherfield, Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson and Mohamed Sanu from his former 49ers team. Now, he is branching out to skill players from other teams with more clearly defined skill sets like the speedy Chosen Anderson and twitchy Braxton Berrios. There is little doubt it will be fun to watch.
Miami Dolphins Fantasy Outlook
The three most interesting Dolphins fantasy options:
Tua Tagovailoa, QB
“Is Tua elite?” may have replaced “Is Flacco elite” for First Take fodder. But fantasy players will not need to argue responsibility if Tua Tagovailoa repeats his top seven real-world (28.8% DVOA) and fantasy efficiencies (19.6 fantasy points per healthy start) from 2022. I am confident in that standard of play. But it’s impossible to be confident in Tagovailoa’s health after a string of concussions threatened his career at just 25 years old.
Raheem Mostert, RB
Raheem Mostert has had his own checkered health history. But when he’s played, he’s been exceptional. His 6.9% explosive run rate is fourth best among backs with 300 or more carries since 2019. He and his new rookie teammate Devon Achane are perfect fits for head coach Mike McDaniel’s wide zone scheme with their 4.32-second speed. But that fit has not quieted the rumors that the Dolphins could trade for star Vikings back Dalvin Cook, a move that would sabotage Mostert’s fantasy potential for 2023.
Tyreek Hill, WR
Tyreek Hill’s routine excellence has made him a bit boring — on paper if not on screen. After a divorce from Patrick Mahomes failed to slow him, Hill has left few doubts for his top-tier fantasy value. The next hurdle may be age. Hill turned 29 years old in March, which will put him on the precipice of the dreaded 30s if the Dolphins can make a deep playoff run.
2023 Outlook
DraftKings Sportsbook Wins Over/Under: 9.5 (+100)
I cannot caution for potential Josh Allen injuries in the Bills outlook and ignore the potential Tua Tagovailoa injuries in the Dolphins one. Allen is reckless but has never missed a start. Tagovailoa has missed four starts each of the last two seasons and could be one concussion away from retirement. But the Dolphins had the No. 4 pass offense by DVOA with just three-quarters of a full Tagovailoa season. And the team had an upper half defense that they sabotaged with a minus-7 turnover differential and seem likely to have dramatically improved with a weak-link upgrade to Jalen Ramsey at cornerback. With one win lower an over/under and with a friendly vig, I’m open to making that bet. But between Tagovailoa and a patchwork offensive line, the Dolphins have more pathways to an underachieving season.
