The Perception/Production Gap in Fantasy Football 2023: QB/RB

We’re wrong in fantasy football far more often than we are right. The drafting community selected Christian McCaffrey first overall in 2020, but then he got hurt and finished as RB54. James Robinson was a fairly anonymous undrafted rookie the same year, going 58th among running backs, and he finished as RB7. 

For every 2022 Derrick Henry (drafted as RB4, finished as RB4), there are several 2022 Brandon Aiyuks (drafted as WR42, finished as WR15). The drafting community getting something wrong isn’t that remarkable. We’re wrong a lot. What is remarkable — or at least potentially remarkable — though, is when we’re wrong on a certain player or type of player a lot. If we underdraft Brandon Aiyuk in 2022, well, we got it wrong. If we underdraft Brandon Aiyuk in 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025, doesn’t that say something else, something we can learn from?

Today and tomorrow, I’m going through the last few years of ADPs and PPR results (per FantasyPros on both) to identify the players whose perception (ADP) and production (PPR finish) tell us the most. Are there types we get wrong too often? Are there players we nail year after year? What does it all mean?

Quarterbacks and running backs today; wide receivers and tight ends Friday.

Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions

We nailed Jared Goff’s fantasy finish in 2019. We have never once overrated him. In every other year of his career (save his 2016 rookie season when he was completely fantasy-irrelevant), we have underrated him, never moreso than last year, when he was drafted as a bench player even in two-QB/superflex leagues and returned QB1 value. I’m not here to tell you Goff is a must-roster in any size league, but the drafting community clearly thinks there’s less there than there actually is, and that makes him at least worth a look.

Kirk Cousins, QB, Minnesota Vikings

Kirk Cousins is an interesting case study. We underrated him dramatically his first few years as a starter — he was first behind Robert Griffin, then just a guy who had gotten the job, always a fourth-round pick. Eventually, the drafting community realized he was actually going to be relevant and started to catch up with him, slightly underrating him in 2018 and more or less nailing him in 2019. But then we collectively started to believe his time as a relevant force was wrapping up, even as the results told us otherwise. 

A common theme among players the drafting community underrates, and a very understandable one: Drafters opt for high ceiling over high floor. Maybe Kirk Cousins will put up a QB8 season every year. But he’s never going to be the QB1. Justin Fields (to pick a name) had the potential to flame out completely, but he put up a QB6 season even without offering much as a passer and missing two games. What’s going to help you more: A bunch of 15-point weeks, or a few 30-pointers? Erring on the side of ceiling isn’t inherently a mistake.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

I was the low man on Clyde Edwards-Helaire coming out of college, but even I was seduced by the landing spot. Three years in, the drafting community has overrated him every year, and not by a little. The good news? That’s extremely unlikely to happen again, as CEH is firmly behind Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon on the depth chart. If we’re going to get him wrong again, it’ll be because we underrate him, because he’ll go undrafted in fantasy in 2023.

Leonard Fournette, RB, free agent

If you’re drawing up how a player might get drafted in fantasy, you would probably guess something along the lines of Leonard Fournette: He was slightly underrated his first year, so drafters corrected by drafting him earlier the next. He disappointed that year, so he dropped down in fantasy esteem, which he answered by producing. And so on. Fournette has yo-yo’d between overrated and underrated every year of his career — sometimes with a big gap, sometimes a small one. He was a (very) slight disappointment in 2022, and he’s currently a free agent. That means he’s not going to be drafted very highly this year, and assuming he finds a job, he could continue the trend one more year.

Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys

Tony Pollard has seen his rushing attempts, targets, receptions, receiving yards, touches, scrimmage yards and PPR point total increase every year of his career, and it certainly seems like he’s in line to do so again in 2023, as the current clear RB1 on the Cowboys’ roster. He drafted him in the 40s at running back three straight years to start his career, and he went from slightly underperforming that ADP to slightly overperforming it to blowing his ADP out of the water. Even our correction in 2022 only had him drafted as RB33, and he returned an easy RB1 season. It’s hard to imagine we underrate Pollard again in 2023 — if anything, I think he’ll be overdrafted — but the trends say he’s an underrated option.

Latavius Murray, RB, Buffalo Bills

This is something of an honorable mention, because his career is winding down, but it’s still noteworthy that we have literally underrated Latavius Murray every year of his career. He’s put up at least 500 scrimmage yards all nine of his seasons but only topped 1,000 twice (2015 and 2016). He’s scored at least 5 times every year since his rookie season but only topped 8 once (2016). Murray was something of a surprise signing in Buffalo, where the Bills already have James Cook, Damien Harris and Nyheim Hines, and he’s 33 now, but the fantasy community has been betting against him for a decade, and we’re always wrong.