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Chris Meaney
Touchdowns lead to the biggest point swings in both real and fantasy football, but the box scores don’t always tell the full story. TDs are high-variance, and because they don’t happen that often, a player falling on the wrong side of variance can fall pretty far behind in the TD department through little to no fault of their own.
The lack-of-TDs feeling usually leads to a discount on that player during fantasy football draft season.
So which players are expected to see positive regression (e.g., improvement in the direction of standard expectation) in the TD department for 2022? These stats come from the FTN Fantasy Expected Fantasy Points tool.
Note that the stats below are for Weeks 1-17 from 2021 and do not include Week 18.
QBs Who Should Throw More TDs in 2022
- Trevor Lawrence: 10 actual TDs, 22 expected TDs
- Ryan Tannehill: 17 actual, 28 expected
- Josh Allen: 34 actual, 45 expected
- Jalen Hurts: 16 actual, 27 expected
- Zach Wilson: 8 actual, 16 expected
- Justin Fields: 7 actual, 14 expected
- Mac Jones: 21 actual, 27 expected
- Derek Carr: 21 actual, 28 expected
- Justin Herbert: 35 actual, 41 expected
This list includes the top two QBs coming off draft boards (Allen and Herbert) — it’s scary to think they could be even better in 2022.
But perhaps more interesting is that this list also includes 2021 rookie QBs Lawrence, Wilson, Fields and Jones — all four of last year’s first-round rookie class (missing only Trey Lance, who hardy played). It’s not a shock to see that rookies struggled to meet expectations — and the stat also helps underscore how players can take big jumps in Year 2.
The two most interesting names here: Jalen Hurts and Derek Carr, each of whom added an elite WR to their supporting cast this offseason.
To see how every QB in the league met (or didn’t meet) TD expectations, be sure to check out the FTN Fantasy Expected Fantasy Points tool.
RBs Who Should Score More TDs in 2022
- Miles Sanders: 0 actual TDs, 4 expected
- Dalvin Cook: 6 actual TDs, 8 expected
- Chase Edmonds: 2 actual TDs, 5 expected
The list of relevant fantasy RBs who fell significantly short of TD expectations in 2021 is short.
Sanders was the poster child for bad TD variance last year, failing to reach the end zone despite truly being in the position to score four times, according to FTN’s data.
Cook is the biggest name on this list by a wide margin. He had some poor TD luck last year despite seeing 15 goal line rush attempts last year (tied for sixth among RBs).
To see how every RB in the league met (or didn’t meet) TD expectations, be sure to check out the FTN Fantasy Expected Fantasy Points tool.
WRs Who Should Score More TDs in 2022
- Chase Claypool: 1 actual, 6 expected
- Courtland Sutton: 2 actual, 6 expected
- DeVonta Smith: 5 actual, 9 expected
- Jakobi Meyers, 2 actual, 5 expected
- Stefon Diggs: 9 actual, 12 expected
- Justin Jefferson: 9 actual, 11 expected
This list features two first-round picks (Jefferson and Diggs), some mid-round picks (Smith, Sutton, Claypool) and a punt in Meyers.
It’s not a shock to see Diggs on this list, as we saw Josh Allen on the same list for the QBs listed up above. It’s worth noting that Diggs saw 23 end zone targets last year — easily the most of any player in the league.
As for Jefferson, if he does see a boost in TD production (he had 17 end zone targets last year, second-most among WRs), he will be a legitimate threat to the No. 1 overall WR in fantasy football this year.
We also like seeing Claypool on this list. Let’s not forget that he scored 9 receiving TDs as a rookie and only felt like a down player last year because of his weak TD output.
To see how every WR in the league met (or didn’t meet) TD expectations, be sure to check out the FTN Fantasy Expected Fantasy Points tool.
TEs Who Should Score More TDs in 2022
- Kyle Pitts: 1 actual, 5 expected
- Cole Kmet: 0 actual, 4 expected
- Zach Ertz: 5 actual, 8 expected
- Mike Gesicki: 2 actual, 4 expected
- Darren Waller: 2 actual, 4 expected
The fact both Pitts and Kmet had such horrible TD output last year has spread around the fantasy football community like wildfire this offseason. It’s no surprise to see them both appear on this list.
But people may be a little surprised to hear Zach Ertz was projected to score 8 TDs. He’s currently going as the TE10 in fantasy drafts.
To see how every TE in the league met (or didn’t meet) TD expectations, be sure to check out the FTN Fantasy Expected Fantasy Points tool.
