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That means you need to nail your picks. So, I'm going to highlight 10 players you should draft before their ADP rises. You can track ADP using the Underdog tool on FTN Fantasy. Sign up for Underdog Fantasy with promo code "FTN" for a 100% deposit match up to $100.
Since entering the league in 2017, Alvin Kamara has finished as a top-10 running back in five straight seasons. In 2020, Kamara was the RB1 overall, thanks in large part to a monstrous six-touchdown game on Christmas Day. He took a step back last season but still finished as the RB8 despite missing four games. Kamara saw a career low in targets (67), receptions (47) and receiving yards (439) in his first season without Drew Brees. However, he was much more involved as a rusher, setting a career-high in carries (240) and rush yards per game (69.1). He is being drafted outside the top-12 running backs due to a potential suspension from an off-field incident last February. The risk of Kamara's suspension is already baked into his ADP, and there is a chance he isn't suspended at all. Kamara offers RB1 value and is available at the Round 3/4 turn.
Amari Cooper, WR, Cleveland Browns
Amari Cooper's fantasy stock plummeted after the Cowboys sent him and a sixth-round pick to the Cleveland Browns in exchange for a 2022 fifth-round pick and a sixth-round pick. Since joining the Cowboys in 2018, Cooper has eclipsed 1,100 receiving yards twice while finishing top-10 in receptions (292), receiving yards (3,893) and receiving touchdowns (9) among all wide receivers over that span. Cooper's value skyrocketed after the Browns made a blockbuster deal and acquired All-Pro quarterback Deshaun Watson. However, the possibility of a length suspension for Watson has caused Cooper’s ADP to steadily decline. With the departure of Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham from Cleveland, Cooper is more than capable of paying off his price as the No. 1 option. Watson has sustained a WR1 in points per game every season of his career and should elevate Cooper and the entire Browns' offense whenever he is available. There is a chance Watson isn't suspended at all, and it sounds increasingly likely he will at least be around for the second half of the season. In a contest like Best Ball Mania, where all the money is in the playoff weeks, Cooper can pay off in a big way and is available in the middle of the sixth round.
Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons
For a second straight season, the Atlanta Falcons used a top-10 draft pick on a behemoth of a pass-catcher, adding to their depleted receiving core. The Falcons selected Drake London with the eighth overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, making him the first wide receiver off the board. At 6-foot-4 and 219 pounds, London broke out in his third year at USC, catching 88 passes for 1,084 and 7 touchdowns in just eight games. With Russell Gage's departure and Calvin Ridley's season-long suspension, London immediately steps in as the team's WR1. The biggest concern for London is the offense and the quality of quarterback play under center. After trading away 2016 MVP Matt Ryan, the Falcons signed former Raiders backup Marcus Mariota to a two-year, $18.75 million contract. They also drafted Desmond Ridder out of UC in the third round. Outside of Pro Bowl tight end Kyle Pitts, London faces little target competition and should be able to pay off a seventh-round ADP through volume alone.
Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
The Saints have never been afraid to get their guy, and they did exactly that when they traded three picks (No. 16, No. 98 and No. 120) to move up to five spots to select Chris Olave with the 11th overall pick of the 2022 NFL Draft. Olave set the all-time touchdown record at Ohio State (35) while racking up 175 catches and 2,702 yards in four seasons. In his final season, he set career highs in catches (65), yards (936) and touchdowns (13). Olave was regarded as the best pure route runner and most pro-ready receiver in the class and should see a direct path to opportunity. He joins fellow Buckeye Michael Thomas, who was recently placed on the PUP list and has only played five games in the past two seasons. The Saints also signed former Browns receiver Jarvis Landry to a one-year contract worth up to $6 million. Like Thomas, Landry had trouble staying on the field last season, playing through a knee injury. Thomas and Landry will be 29 at the start of next season and are on the back nine of their career. Olave will serve as the deep threat in the Saints offense and could provide big spike weeks catching passes from Jameis Winston.
Treylon Burks, WR, Tennessee Titans
The Titans sent ripples across the league when they traded away A.J. Brown to the Eagles in exchange for 2022 first- and third-round picks. They went on to use their newly acquired first-round pick on Treylon Burks with the 18th pick of the 2022 NFL Draft. Burks had a productive three-year stint in Arkansas, catching 146 passes for 2,399 and 18 touchdowns. At 6-foot-2 and 225 pounds, the former Razorback comps favorably to Brown, who led the Titans in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns in each of the past three seasons. The Titans also traded a sixth-round pick for Rams wide receiver Robert Woods. Woods tore his ACL last season and is questionable to be ready by Week 1. Burks has large shoes to fill but does not have to replicate Brown's production to pay off his ADP. He initially went in the sixth round but has gotten significantly cheaper after struggling with conditioning and asthma. He is now available at the eight, nine turn and is worth buying the dip.
Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
The Jets had been linked to trading for a receiver all offseason, hoping to land a true WR1. They made offers for both Tyreek Hill and Deebo Samuel but came up short. Instead, they turned their attention toward the draft and selected Garrett Wilson with the 10th overall pick. Wilson played three seasons at Ohio State, catching 143 passes for 1,058 yards and 23 touchdowns. He had his best season as a junior, setting career highs in catches (70), yards (1,058), and touchdowns (12). Wilson's season was even more impressive, considering he shared the field with future NFL talents in Chris Olave and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. His elite speed and ability to separate downfield bodes well in a Jets offense that ranked bottom of the league in wide receiver target separation. He joins a receiving room featuring second-year standout Elijah Moore, also poised for a breakout year. Moore came on strong in the second half of the season, finishing as the WR2 in Weeks 8-13. Unfortunately, his season was cut short after a hip injury that would sideline him for the rest of the season. The Jets also signed former Tennessee Titans wide receiver Corey Davis last offseason. Like Moore, Davis missed the second half of the season after a groin injury. Moore is the early favorite to lead Jets wide receivers because of his late-season surge. However, a large part of his production came when Zach Wilson was out. Garrett Wilson is going four rounds after Moore and could be the WR1 in New York. He was the second wide receiver selected in the NFL draft but is the fourth rookie wide receiver in ADP.
After trading away Russell Wilson, the Seahawks have made no secret of wanting to establish the run. With the 41st pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, the team selected Ken Walker out of Michigan State. Last season, Walker rushed for 1,636 yards and 18 touchdowns while leading all of college football in forced missed tackles (89). Walker was arguably the best pure rusher in the class, with elite speed, clocking in at a 4.38-second 40-yard-dash at the NFL combine. He was the second running back off the board, just five picks after Breece Hall. Walker's ADP has steadily declined after reports suggested that Rashaad Penny is the early favorite to lead the Seahawks backfield and could see upward of 20 carries a game. Penny closed the season strong, leading all running backs in touches (92) and yards (692) in the season's final five games. His 6.3 yards per carry and 4.5 yards after contact per carry ranked first among all backs with at least 50 carries. Like most of his career, Penny had trouble staying on the field, missing seven games while dealing with multiple leg injuries. Since entering the league in 2018, Penny has appeared in only 37 out of a possible 67 games. The Seahawks allowed Penny to test the free agency market before re-signing him to a one-year, $5.8 million contract. Although Penny may be the Week 1 starter, it is unlikely he will remain healthy for the entire season. Walker is going more than a full round after Penny and could take over the backfield by the middle of the season.
Jalen Tolbert, WR, Dallas Cowboys
Strapped by the salary cap, the Cowboys traded away Amari Cooper. They also lost No. 4 receiver Cedrick Wilson after he posted career highs in receptions (45), yards (602) and receiving touchdowns (6) in 2021. As a result, the Cowboys turned to the draft to help bolster their receiving core, selecting South Alabama receiver Jalen Tolbert in the third round. After a stellar senior season, Tolbert was named the 2021 Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year. In his fifth year as a Jaguar, Tolbert caught a career-high 82 passes for 1,474 yards and eight touchdowns. As a Day 2 selection, Tolbert has been going overlooked in drafts. He has an immediate path to opportunity on a Cowboys team that is top-10 in vacated air yards and targets. Since Mike McCarthy took over as head coach in 2020, the Cowboys have been one of the pass heaviest teams, ranking top five in pass attempts in each of the past two seasons. They have also had two top-24 wide receivers in back-to-back seasons. Tolbert is the favorite to start in three wide receiver sets but may have an even bigger role depending on Michael Gallup's status. Gallup tore his ACL in Week 17 last season and is a candidate to start the season on the PUP list. While Gallup is out, Tolbert has a chance to be the No. 2 option for Dak Prescott.
Julio Jones, WR, Free Agent
Since entering the league in 2011, Julio Jones has already put together a Hall of Fame resume and will go down as one of the best wide receivers to play the game. Unfortunately, injuries have started to pile up, and he has missed 14 games over the past two seasons. In his first (and only) season with the Titans, Jones caught only 31 passes for 434 yards and one touchdown. He played in 10 games but only saw over 70% of offensive snaps in three. Despite a disappointing season, Jones was still efficient, averaging 14 yards per catch, 9.0 yards per target and 1.84 yards per route run. Although the 33-year-old wide receiver is currently unsigned, his ADP will jump multiple rounds as soon as he finds a new home.
William Fuller, WR, Free Agent
Last offseason, William Fuller signed a one-year, $10.6 million "prove-it" deal with the Miami Dolphins after a 2020 suspension for violating the NFL's policy on performance-enhancing substances that stretched into Week 1 of 2021. Like most of his six-year career, Fuller had trouble staying on the field, appearing in just two games last season. He caught a career-low four passes on eight targets for 26 yards before missing the rest of the season with a finger injury. It was the fifth consecutive year Fuller has failed to play more than 11 games in a season. Before getting suspended in 2020, Fuller was amid a breakout campaign, posting career highs in receptions (53), yards (879) and touchdowns (8). He was the WR7 on a per-game basis. The best ability is availability, and Fuller has yet to prove he can play an entire season. However, in best ball, a player that can contribute a few spike weeks is worth taking a flier on. Fuller is yet to sign to a team, which is why he is still available in the final rounds of drafts.
Bio: Sam Choudhury is a former data analyst, reviewer, and recorder for Pro Football Focus. He was also a fantasy contributor for RotoViz. Choudhury is a DFS expert with multiple GPP takedowns. You can follow him on Twitter @SC_FFB.