Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Mike GesickiReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Dolphins vs. Bills
Right now, Mike Gesicki’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 27.5 (-130) after it opened @ 28.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Dolphins are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have run the 9th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 63.9 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to accrue 4.0 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile among TEs.
- Mike Gesicki has put up a colossal 52.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 119.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
- The Miami Dolphins O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- Mike Gesicki has been among the weakest tight ends in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.01 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 6th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards
27
Receiving Yards
