The Touchdown Regression Model: Week 2
After Week 1 slip-ups, the Bills, Chiefs and Seahawks reasserted their top offensive standings with wins in Week 2. But there was still plenty of abnormality in the Week 2 box scores, and that makes for waiver wire and trade opportunities.
This is the Touchdown Regression Model for Week 2. Each week, I calculate expected touchdown totals based on where on the field players throw, run and catch their touchdowns and use the corresponding expected touchdown surpluses and shortfalls to predict which players will score less and more over the rest of the season. Let’s dig into those differences from Week 2.
My opportunity-adjusted touchdown estimates follow similar calculations as those that Mike Clay pioneered.
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