Odds to Win Super Bowl LVIII

Revised as of 1/29/24, through Week 21

Compiled by Mike Harris

The NFL playoff picture odds report plays out the season 25,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.)

Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 25,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV) or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

 

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Team Odds to Win Super Bowl LVIII

San Francisco: 54.6%

Kansas City: 45.4%