DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS

Sep 01, 2023, 9:08 AM EDT by Aaron Schatz

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Revised as of 10/3/23, through Week 4

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 25,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the Week 1 DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 25,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV) or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

Arizona's DVOA is 10% higher with Kyler Murray returning. He returns by Week 10 in 20% of simulations, Week 12 in 40%, Week 14 in 60%, and Week 16 in 80%. In 20% of simulations, he misses the entire season.

DAVE here may be slightly different from what is listed on other pages in order to get a more realistic spread of possible win totals.

Mean Wins includes 0.5 wins for each tie.

NFC East

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	DIV	WC	TOT
PHI	4-0	19.2%	11.9	21.7%	18.2%	12.9%	4.2%	18.7%	10.1%	6.0%	57.1%	34.8%	91.9%
DAL	3-1	22.0%	11.0	10.9%	13.4%	10.5%	5.1%	22.9%	12.4%	8.7%	40.0%	44.1%	84.1%
WAS	2-2	-5.2%	7.7	0.4%	0.7%	1.1%	0.7%	5.1%	7.4%	8.9%	2.8%	21.4%	24.2%
NYG	1-3	-21.6%	4.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.4%	0.9%	0.1%	1.5%	1.5%

NFC North

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	DIV	WC	TOT
DET	3-1	17.8%	11.8	13.4%	25.1%	27.1%	18.6%	2.6%	3.6%	3.2%	84.1%	9.5%	93.6%
GB	2-2	-1.4%	9.0	0.8%	2.9%	4.7%	4.1%	9.4%	13.8%	13.2%	12.4%	36.3%	48.7%
MIN	1-3	-7.2%	6.7	0.1%	0.3%	1.1%	1.9%	1.2%	3.3%	5.3%	3.4%	9.8%	13.2%
CHI	0-4	-28.6%	3.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%	0.4%	0.5%

NFC South

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	DIV	WC	TOT
NO	2-2	0.9%	9.5	1.4%	5.1%	10.6%	21.1%	3.3%	7.0%	9.3%	38.2%	19.6%	57.8%
TB	3-1	-7.0%	8.9	1.1%	3.4%	8.1%	18.6%	2.4%	6.3%	9.1%	31.2%	17.9%	49.2%
ATL	2-2	-6.5%	8.9	1.1%	3.3%	7.3%	18.5%	3.1%	7.0%	8.9%	30.2%	18.9%	49.1%
CAR	0-4	-22.6%	4.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%	0.1%	0.4%	0.4%	0.6%	1.0%

NFC West

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	DIV	WC	TOT
SF	4-0	28.1%	13.1	45.5%	23.4%	13.2%	5.1%	5.3%	3.3%	1.9%	87.1%	10.4%	97.6%
SEA	3-1	7.0%	9.6	3.4%	3.7%	2.8%	1.2%	20.5%	17.0%	13.8%	11.1%	51.2%	62.4%
LAR	2-2	-8.1%	7.4	0.2%	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	4.5%	6.6%	7.8%	1.5%	19.0%	20.4%
ARI	1-3	-18.2%	5.6	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.8%	1.5%	2.2%	0.3%	4.6%	4.8%

AFC East

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	DIV	WC	TOT
BUF	3-1	34.4%	12.7	40.0%	20.2%	11.3%	2.9%	14.5%	5.3%	2.7%	74.3%	22.5%	96.8%
MIA	3-1	13.0%	10.8	10.6%	7.1%	4.5%	1.3%	34.9%	15.5%	9.1%	23.4%	59.4%	82.9%
NE	1-3	-2.7%	7.0	0.3%	0.4%	0.4%	0.2%	3.3%	5.4%	6.7%	1.3%	15.5%	16.8%
NYJ	1-3	-5.8%	6.6	0.1%	0.2%	0.4%	0.2%	2.1%	3.4%	4.7%	1.0%	10.2%	11.1%

AFC North

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	DIV	WC	TOT
BAL	3-1	18.6%	11.3	16.2%	23.2%	19.3%	9.7%	5.8%	7.2%	6.0%	68.3%	19.1%	87.4%
CLE	2-2	7.0%	9.6	2.4%	6.2%	6.9%	2.9%	12.6%	15.5%	12.8%	18.4%	40.8%	59.2%
PIT	2-2	-1.9%	8.4	1.0%	3.3%	3.8%	2.7%	6.4%	10.1%	11.0%	10.8%	27.5%	38.3%
CIN	1-3	-1.0%	7.0	0.1%	0.5%	1.0%	0.9%	1.7%	3.8%	5.3%	2.4%	10.7%	13.2%

AFC South

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	DIV	WC	TOT
JAX	2-2	2.9%	8.7	1.1%	4.0%	8.3%	24.0%	1.3%	3.5%	5.2%	37.5%	10.0%	47.4%
HOU	2-2	-13.0%	7.9	0.4%	1.6%	4.8%	15.4%	1.3%	3.5%	5.2%	22.3%	10.0%	32.3%
TEN	2-2	-10.8%	7.7	0.5%	2.2%	4.8%	14.1%	1.1%	3.2%	4.9%	21.6%	9.2%	30.8%
IND	2-2	-13.7%	7.7	0.5%	1.7%	4.5%	12.1%	1.6%	3.9%	5.4%	18.7%	10.9%	29.5%

AFC West

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	DIV	WC	TOT
KC	3-1	21.1%	11.7	24.2%	23.6%	21.0%	6.8%	5.3%	5.9%	4.3%	75.6%	15.5%	91.1%
LAC	2-2	9.3%	9.1	2.5%	5.4%	7.4%	5.2%	6.9%	10.5%	10.8%	20.4%	28.2%	48.6%
LV	1-3	-10.6%	6.7	0.0%	0.4%	1.3%	1.3%	1.1%	2.4%	4.1%	3.0%	7.6%	10.5%
DEN	1-3	-13.7%	5.5	0.0%	0.1%	0.5%	0.4%	0.3%	1.0%	1.8%	1.0%	3.1%	4.1%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

Reaching the Conference Championship Game
Winning the Conference Championship Game
Winning the Super Bowl

Team	Conf App	Conf Win	SB Win	17-0
BUF	61.8%	42.7%	26.2%	0.0%
SF	60.5%	38.9%	21.5%	1.8%
KC	41.6%	20.7%	10.4%	0.0%
PHI	36.9%	18.2%	8.6%	0.4%
DAL	30.2%	15.4%	7.6%	0.0%
DET	35.9%	16.6%	7.2%	0.0%
BAL	34.3%	15.4%	7.2%	0.0%
MIA	20.2%	8.4%	3.7%	0.0%
LAC	9.7%	3.4%	1.3%	0.0%
CLE	10.2%	3.5%	1.3%	0.0%
SEA	10.1%	3.7%	1.3%	0.0%
NO	7.7%	2.3%	0.8%	0.0%
JAX	7.4%	2.3%	0.7%	0.0%
GB	4.9%	1.4%	0.4%	0.0%
PIT	4.2%	1.1%	0.4%	0.0%
ATL	5.0%	1.3%	0.3%	0.0%
TB	4.6%	1.1%	0.3%	0.0%
WAS	1.9%	0.5%	0.2%	0.0%
TEN	2.5%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%
CIN	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
HOU	2.3%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
IND	1.7%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
NE	1.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
LAR	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

On the Clock

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2024 NFL draft. Does not represent traded picks.

Team	Top Pick	Top 5 Pick
CHI	43.4%	85.4%
CAR	21.5%	70.6%
NYG	9.0%	56.2%
DEN	6.1%	46.6%
ARI	5.6%	41.0%
LV	3.0%	26.8%
MIN	2.5%	24.9%
NYJ	1.7%	20.3%
NE	1.2%	16.5%
IND	1.1%	15.4%
CIN	1.0%	14.4%
HOU	1.0%	13.3%
LAR	0.4%	11.1%
WAS	0.6%	11.0%
TEN	0.5%	10.9%
ATL	0.5%	6.7%
PIT	0.2%	6.1%
GB	0.3%	6.0%
NO	0.1%	3.4%
JAX	0.1%	3.2%
TB	0.0%	3.1%
LAC	0.1%	2.9%
CLE	0.1%	2.5%
SEA	0.0%	1.2%
MIA	0.0%	0.2%
BAL	0.0%	0.1%
DAL	0.0%	0.1%
KC	0.0%	0.1%

Special Super Bowl Matchups

This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups.

Name	Teams	Chance
Chris Berman's Dream	SF vs BUF	16.7%
Super Bowl LIV Rematch	SF vs KC	8.0%
LeSean McCoy Classic	PHI vs BUF	7.6%
Super Bowls XXVII-XXVIII Rematch	DAL vs BUF	6.6%
Super Bowl XLVII Rematch	SF vs BAL	5.8%
Super Bowl LVII Rematch	PHI vs KC	3.8%
Super Bowl XIX Rematch	SF vs MIA	3.3%
1960 Double Dallas Showdown	DAL vs KC	3.1%
The Delaware Tollbooth Traffic Jam	PHI vs BAL	3.0%
Super Bowl V Sort-of Rematch	DAL vs BAL	2.3%
Ace Ventura Bowl	PHI vs MIA	1.4%
Super Bowl VI Rematch	DAL vs MIA	1.4%
AAFC Memorial Bowl	SF vs CLE	1.3%
Trent Baalke Reunion Special	SF vs JAX	0.9%
Hell Freezes Over	DET vs CLE	0.6%
Amari Cooper Reunion Special	DAL vs CLE	0.6%
Blue Cheese Bowl	GB vs BUF	0.5%
Tyrann Mathieu Reunion Special	NO vs KC	0.5%
Doug Pederson Reunion Special	PHI vs JAX	0.4%
David Simon Crossover Bowl	NO vs BAL	0.4%
Super Bowl I Rematch	GB vs KC	0.3%
Keystone Bowl	PHI vs PIT	0.3%
Super Bowl LV Rematch	TB vs KC	0.2%
Terron Armstead Reunion Special	NO vs MIA	0.2%
Super Bowl XXVI Rematch	WAS vs BUF	0.2%
Calais Campbell Reunion Special	ATL vs BAL	0.2%
Super Bowls XXIII-XVI Rematch	SF vs CIN	0.2%
DeForest Buckner Reunion Special	SF vs IND	0.2%
A Song of Ice and Fire	GB vs MIA	0.1%
Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX Rematch	DAL vs PIT	0.1%
Von Miller Reunion Special	LAR vs BUF	0.1%
Beltway Bowl	WAS vs BAL	0.1%
Robert Saleh Reunion Special	SF vs NYJ	0.1%
Florida Bowl (South)	TB vs MIA	0.1%
Fifth Time's The Charm	MIN vs BUF	0.1%
A.J. Brown Reunion Special	PHI vs TEN	0.1%
Texas Bowl	DAL vs HOU	0.1%
Super Bowl V Rematch	DAL vs IND	0.1%
Missouri Revenge Bowl	LAR vs KC	0.1%
Frank Reich Reunion Special	PHI vs IND	0.1%

Aaron Schatz

@ASchatzNFL

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