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Josh Gross
DVOA Articles
NFL
DVOA
Week 16 DVOA: Ravens Back to the Top
The Baltimore Ravens won the Christmas DVOA Bowl decisively and are now back into first place in our DVOA ratings. However, the 49ers didn’t fall back as much as you might expect, in part because of opponent adjustments for playing a great Ravens team, and they also still rank among the top teams in DVOA […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 16 Quick Reads: Amari Cooper’s Big Day
Merry Christmas, everyone who celebrates! No commentary this week because of the holiday, except to note that Amari Cooper does not finish No. 1 in DYAR among wide receivers because of a very heavy opponent adjustment. Also, George Pickens did not make our list of the top five wide receivers because he had a fumble […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 16 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 16 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Let’s Visit the DVOA Splits!
Welcome back to our second installment of the Premium Splits DVOA deep dive! If you missed our first part, we covered the hyper-situational world of per-play splits. Passing into specific field zones and running through individual holes are about as niche as one can get. We then opened it up to single-game performances to widen the […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
FTN’s 2023 Pro Bowl Ballot: Defense
Welcome back to part two of this year’s best possible Pro Bowl rosters! We covered the offense earlier this week; now, we have to dive into the muck that is the defensive side of the ball, as well as the mysterious land of special teams. There’s not a lack of quality choices here, mind you; […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Tommy DeVito and the 2023 New York Giants Sack Festival
Last season, we had two units challenging historical sack records. The 2022 Eagles came close to the best sack rate for any defense in modern NFL history. The 2022 Bears came close to the worst sack rate for any offense in NFL history. Both teams fell short. There’s no defense this year that can come […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
FTN’s 2023 Pro Bowl Ballot: Offense
The Pro Bowl matters! OK, the Pro Bowl game doesn’t matter, which is why it no longer exists. The Pro Bowl Games last year were surprisingly entertaining, in a “put the game on in the background while doing other things” sort of way. A smorgasbord of skills competitions and some flag football games were more […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 15 DVOA: Merry Christmas DVOA Bowl!
Merry Christmas! Are you ready for the DVOA Bowl? The San Francisco 49ers continued to stomp all over the NFL with a 45-29 victory that was not as close as it looked. The 49ers had 79.6% DVOA for the game even after opponent adjustments for playing the Cardinals. They are listed with 7.5 yards per […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 15 Quick Reads: James Cook Destroys the Cowboys
No long introduction to this week’s column, just an appreciation of James Cook and his huge game against the Dallas Cowboys. Cook had 104 total DYAR for this game. Based on current opponent adjustments, that’s the top game for any running back this season. Cook’s game was so big that Dallas dropped from sixth to […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 15 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 15 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
The Shanahan Effect on the Middle of the Field and More Lessons from DVOA Splits
Football is a game of small sample sizes. While the NBA and NHL get to enjoy 82 games of action, and the real MLB diehards get double that, us NFL enthusiasts are stuck with just 17 games to make real, meaningful analysis. Even breaking down the game into its hyper-situational components can feel like panning […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
Where the Dak Prescott MVP Case is Lacking
If the NFL MVP award is about narratives as much as it is about performance, then Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are writing one that measures up to the veteran quarterback’s productivity on the field. After handshake Week 1 and 2 blowouts of a pair of overmatched New York teams — the latter reeling from […]
Scott Spratt
NFL
DVOA
Purdy: Most Valuable Player Compared to Salary
“Most Valuable Player” is kind of a weird name for an award, isn’t it? There’s no reason the NFL needs to call its biggest award that. We could be talking about the most outstanding player in the league or the most important player or the most useful player or the most exceptional player. We could be handing […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 14 DVOA: 49ers Now an All-Time Top-5 Team
The San Francisco 49ers continued their winning ways this week, dominating DVOA and every other advanced NFL metric across the Internet. The 49ers are now up to 45.3% DVOA and 47.9% weighted DVOA. They are No. 1 on offense by a ton but also No. 4 on defense. Their special teams are below average, ranked […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 14 Quick Reads: Why Brock Purdy Is Like Randall Cunningham
Brock Purdy has easily been the most efficient quarterback in the NFL during the 2023 season. Purdy now leads all quarterbacks with 48.9% passing DVOA. He also leads quarterbacks in passing DYAR despite throwing fewer passes than most starters. That brings up the controversy about whether Purdy should be the MVP or not. Purdy is […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 14 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 14 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Jets Lead Route DVOA for Defenses
Last week, I took a look at Route DVOA for receivers. This is DVOA based on value per route run rather than value per target, to account for the fact that earning targets by getting open is a skill. Now we’re going to flip that around and look at our DVOA vs. Types of Receivers […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Steelers-Patriots and Lowest NFL Over-Under Totals
This is a general reminder to everyone: there is nothing stopping you from just … not watching tonight’s Thursday Night Football game. Seriously. Get some holiday shopping done. Call a loved one. Hell, go watch a movie. Anything but watching the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots play some caricature of a “football game.” The […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
2024 NFL Draft First Pick Odds: Patriots vs. Panthers (Bears)
It’s the last race you want to win when the contest begins in September. But by the time December rolls around, you’re kind of rooting for it. The first overall pick. The first place prize for the last place team. So who is it going to be this year? Current Odds of Getting the First […]
Tyler Loechner
NFL
DVOA
Jets vs. The Worst QB Situations Ever
To be a fly on the wall in the New York Jets’ quarterback room. They’re not content to just be the worst passing offense in football, with a -27.6% DVOA. Oh no. They’re not content to be pushing for the worst passing offense in franchise history, either, tied with the 1995 Boomer Esiason squad in […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 13 DVOA: 49ers Dominating the NFL
The San Francisco 49ers move into the top spot in DVOA this week after a huge victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. The 49ers rank as the eighth-best team ever tracked by DVOA through 12 games. However, we also still have the Baltimore Ravens super high, much higher than other advanced metrics. In fact, the Ravens […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 13 Quick Reads: Big Seasons for Aiyuk and Hill
Tyreek Hill does not make our Quick Reads list of the top five wide receivers of Week 13. Neither does Brandon Aiyuk. Hill ends up eighth, thanks to one catch for a 6-yard loss and the opponent adjustments for playing the worst pass defense in the league, the Washington Commanders. Aiyuk is even lower, since […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 13 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 13 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Put Some Respect on the Jaguars’ Name … and Defense
The 2023 race for the AFC No. 1 seed might be up there for one of the most competitive in recent memory. The four teams leading their divisions right now – the Baltimore Ravens, the Kansas City Chiefs, the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the Miami Dolphins – all currently sit at either 9-3 or 8-3. Headed into […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
Route DVOA Through Week 12
You may remember that back in the preseason, I introduced a new concept called Route DVOA. I’ve been doing receiving DVOA for 20 years, but it’s always been based on value per target. Route DVOA is based on value per routes run, which accounts for the skill of getting open and earning targets. It’s probably […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Are Eagles the Next DVOA Underdog Super Bowl Champions?
Will the Eagles keep winning starts with how the Eagles keep winning – and the answer is … well, complicated. They have by no means dominated their opponents, culminating in a 15.6% DVOA for the season. This kind of DVOA gives them an outlook that falls well below the average expectation level for us Philadelphia […]
Alex Blickle
NFL
DVOA
Breaking Down the 2023 Playoff Race
One benefit about the NFL’s bizarre 18-week, 17-game schedule is that it breaks the season nicely into three thirds. That’s aesthetically pleasing to me; every season is its own story, and a three-act structure is a fun way to view the year from 20,000 feet, as it were. You have all your important characters and […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 12 DVOA: Records of the Ravens Run Game
It’s getting tight at the top of our DVOA ratings after 12 weeks of the 2023 NFL season. At the same time, it’s not tight at all. That’s because we have two teams nearly tied and then a huge gap between those two teams and the rest of the NFL. The Baltimore Ravens remain No. […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 12 Quick Reads: Remaining Schedules
Before we got into the best and worst players of Week 12, I thought it would be fun to take a look at the remaining schedule strength for players. This should particularly be a help for fantasy football purposes. With that in mind, I looked at average defensive DVOA of opponents in Weeks 13-17, leaving […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 12 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 12 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Who is the 2023 Coach of the Year?
At the two-thirds mark of the NFL season, some end-of-year awards are much harder to decide than others. One of the hardest to currently predict: Coach of the Year. It’s one of the few awards that cannot truly be determined until the last weeks of the season, but there are a whole heap of candidates […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
Thanksgiving Turkeys for 2023
How do you prepare your turkey? I’m a stickler for brining; the number one problem with a terrible turkey is having it dry out and brining it helps it absorb extra moisture and make a juicer, more flavorful bird. But there are dozens of ways to go about it. I’ve enjoyed deep-fried birds, spatchcocked birds, […]
Bryan Knowles